2016-2017 Off-Season Thread
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
And both were over matched.
Yeah. That was me saying that the Braves are currently an 85 win team.
Which means what? That we should be upset that the Braves aren't going to dominate in the playoffs in 2017? Teams in the Braves projected win level can make the playoffs. 2 teams did it last year. Yet some here think it's not possible that they can be competitive next year.
Seems like a lot of dark ages assumptions going into his final win projections.
Both were extremely lucky is all.
Those that don't understand the variation in smaller sample sizes can't see this.
How exactly is trading Folty for Sale setting up for continual success? Folty could very well turn into the same 4+ WAR pitcher that Sale currently is as soon as next season, and is controlled for longer.
Anyone trading for Sale is trying to win in 2017, and they will be giving up substantial future wins to gain those wins in 2017. The whole reason the ChiSox are dealing him is because they can't sustain competitiveness with him. The ChiSox are going to trade Sale's current wins for even more future wins, thus gaining sustainability. Their gain in sustainability results in, by definition, a loss of sustainability by the Braves.
It's almost like folks don't understand the most basic concept of trades like this: future wins traded for current wins, with current wins holding the premium in terms of value.
Luck is always a great way at passing off something that we can't explain yet.
The Rangers (95 wins) had a positive 9 run differential, the Oreos (89 wins) had a positive 29 run differential. The M's had a 61 run differential and won 86 games.
I don't think anybody is saying anything different. Of course it is possible, just extremely unlikely. Those teams weren't projected to win many games, performed roughly as they were expected in terms of RS/RA, but ran like God and made the playoffs.
Possible, but not likely is the key.
I don't think anybody is saying anything different. Of course it is possible, just extremely unlikely. Those teams weren't projected to win many games, performed roughly as they were expected in terms of RS/RA, but ran like God and made the playoffs.
Possible, but not likely is the key.
Yes they were. But teams do get lucky.
Well, if you want to get all scientific and everything; you are right, it is not luck. Shall we call it "random, unlikely **** instead?"
"Extremely lucky" is quite a bit far fetched. They had good teams and beat some good teams in their division as well.
I would think most people that agree that they don't expect a playoff spot but that it is possible. Much more than it was in 2016. As the Braves currently stand they are in a bracket where it would take a lot of things going right for it to happen. But it can happen. Yet some posters don't think its possible they can be competitive in 2017. That's false. Not likely but it's possible.
Sweet, so let's plan around the idea that the Braves will go 36-11 in 1-run games. Excellent team planning there!
Don't you mean "They had average teams?" Oreos being about an 84 win team? Rangers being about an 82 win team?
They beat good teams. NO WAY, DUDE? FO REAL?
Agreed. Now, do you make roster decisions based on hope a 75 win team wins 90 or do you wait another year? Im not saying the moves are wrong, it's just not how I would go about it. I would not give up the assets to acquire Sale to expect to win 79 games next year and hope to get lucky and win 89.
I'd rather go with "Build the best team possible without sacrificing the future and let's see what happens". I'd be willing to be a team projected to win 80 games or less when the season starts actually makes the playoffs this year. Not that I expect it to be the Braves but those types of teams do emerge every year.
I would do what they have been doing. Short term deals to make the team better but not sacrifice the future. So far they haven't done that. Sale is an interesting question. I would not give up the farm for him. It gets interesting when you talk about moving JT in some way to bring him back. Sale is better but with 1 less year of control. Could trade Ender back and that would depend on how much you believe in Mallex replacing him.
Would some kind of Sale/Frazier for Julio/Ender + prospect work? If they really are in serious talks about Sale I'm sure lots of combinations are being thrown out there and I would bet most somehow involve making the team better this year and not sacrificing much of the future.