Yes, we would have been better for one season.
2016 Draft Position
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
Yes, we would have been better for one season.
Well since the attrition rate for pitchers is astronomically high I could argue that pitching is just as valueable of a commodity. Regardless if you have pitching or not currently it won't be long until you need more.
Crazy thing is the starting pitching was awesome last year. Much better than this years team.
It increases the importance of having a pipeline of pitching, but it also reduces the value of each individual pitcher, as we just saw with our Wood trade.
This statement I feel is contradictory. If you need a pipeline of pitching that means that need individual pitchers. I understand the point you are trying to make but if you look at the trades that were made at the deadline basically all the big pieces were traded for pitching.
That's because the best available pieces were all pitchers. But when you look at the return for guys like Olivera, Gomez, and Brandon Moss and compare that with the return of the aces, the hitters brought back more with respect to the talent level.
I mean, the package the Royals gave up for Zobrist was pretty comparable to what they gave up for Cueto.
It definitely is a quandary in the sense that each individual hitter is more valuable because of the scarcity combined with the comparative chances of injury while having a pipeline of pitchers is more important than a pipeline of hitters (except in the trade value those hitters provide).
But for a team in the Braves' situation now, with a pipeline of young pitchers, and elite talents in the lower levels, I think it's very important for us to go after positional talent at the top of next year's draft, provided the value is similar.
I think it's very important to be balanced in the way you go after talent as an organization, with a bit of a nod in terms of overall numbers to pitching. But we have tipped the scales completely in favor of pitching, so it wouldn't help us as much, IMO, to continue to go after pitching with our top pick. We did get some high-upside hitters in the draft, we got 2-3 in the international market, and we will probably get several more in next year's international market. I think if you take an elite hitting talent with our top pick next year and combine it with everything else we'll have in the lower levels, you will start to have a very good, very balanced group of talent there.
But I think the hitting is already very strong in the lower minors and you aren't even counting the International signings from this current year. And of course as you mentioned Maiten from next year. There was just a huge talent shortage in the mid to upper minors at the end of last year. That isn't just going to fix itself in 10 months. Ruiz ****ting the bed this year did not help at all. If there is a big time hitter at the top of the draft then I would love for them to consider him but only if he is on top of their board at the time. Maiten seems to be the equivalent of having the #1 overall pick. I just hope its true that we have him locked up.
Some things were predictable. Like having a terrible defense. But I don't see how it was predictable that Justin would have his worst offensive year since 2012. Yes it was likely his overall stats would suffer, but his park adusted stats are still low for him. And he's still been very good at Petco and terrible away.
Myers getting hurt was hardly predictable as well. Though shifting him to CF was clearly not a good choice if you were concerned over his health.
Kemp has been healthy for the most part. He has just not hit well. He hasn't been terrible, just not great.
I also don't see how Shields was clearly in "severe decline" when his last two seasons have been two of his best of his career. Other then his age, there isn't much to suggest he was in decline, and certainly nothing to suggest "severe decline."
I would say the opposite actually. Hamels brought back a pretty substantial return. As did Price. And while I don't personally like the deal, many feel like the Braves came away with a good package for Wood.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Balance is necessary. It should be noted that the high upside international signings from recent years are mostly hitters: Albiez, Yepez, Acuna, Salazar, Baez, Ventura. So unlike some around here, I don't have an issue with us taking mostly pitchers in the last draft.
It should be noted that the three top international signings this year are all position players.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We traded away Peraza and Kubitza, and Bethancourt and Ruiz had disappointing seasons. Mallex Smith and Jace Peterson provided upside surprises, but it remains to be seen if they fit in as regulars or bench players at the major league level. Castro has a chance to contribute but I see him mostly as a bench player or short side of a platoon.
And none of that changes the point that those writers who are responsible for the most widely recognized pre-draft lists have VERY few opportunities to see those players with their own eyes - they're relying on many of the same reports and video clips we do.
For example - everyone loves to talk about how unbelievable it is that 23 teams "missed" on Mike Trout in the 2009 Draft. Guess where he ranked on BA's Top 100 Draft Prospects that year. 22nd behind guys named Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, Shelby Miller, Zack Wheeler, and Mike Leake - those are the handful of guys who have had moderately successful careers to this point, and none have been significantly more successful than Minor. The jury is still out on many of those players six years later, but Trout has been the only "star" that was ranked ahead of Minor at #35. Of course when you look down that list in retrospect today, it's easy to ask "what were they thinking?" because the further down you go, the more successful players you find. Wil Myers was #31 that summer, and James Paxton (#37), Randal Grichuk (#58), Jason Kipnis (#61), Jake Marisnick (#71), Kyle Seager (#97), and Billy Hamilton (#98) were all ranked lower (in most cases significantly) than Minor was.
However, when you look at where the players were actually drafted, the teams' results look better than the BA list - Strasburg (#1), Ackley (#2), Wheeler (#6), Minor (#7), Leake (#8), Miller (#19), Grichuk (#24), and Trout (#25) were all taken in the First Round. Paxton (#37) was taken in the Supplemental Round (did not sign) along with Garrett Richards who didn't make BA's Top 100. Hamilton (#57) was taken in the Second Round along with Kipnis at #63 which was right where they had him ranked. Of course that Second Round also included Nolan Arenado (#59) who didn't make the BA list either. Seager went 15 picks higher than BA had him ranked (in the Third Round). The only players that actually "fell" in the group were Myers (#91) and Marisnick (#104).
The point still remains that Callis, Mayo, Law, and Sickels miss at least as often as (if not more than) the organizations do - especially the ones who have historically had good scouting departments. I agree that a big part of that is the high schoolers, but that just strengthens my point - the teams who come up with the "finds" who aren't on the major lists (especially earlier in drafts) are the ones who consistently rely on their scouts rather than the blanket lists.
Again, I'm talking relative to talent. There was no hitter traded with anywhere near the talent of Price, Cueto, or Hamels. You could argue Tulo, but he's not what he was.
The return for Price and Hamels was good, but I would put the Gomez return ahead of the Price return, and the extra year for Gomez doesn't make up for the difference in talent.
The Royals gave up their best prospect for Zobrist, not for Cueto.
And a good 24-year-old #2 starter got us the #16 prospect, according to BA. Conversely, that hitting prospect got the Dodgers Wood. I just don't see how anyone could say pitching was the most valuable thing in that trade. A hitter projected to, at best, put up an OPS around .800 brought back more than a pitcher already providing that much value in the majors.
I do like the hitting right now in the low minors. But we still don't have a true impact bat in the system, and I'm not sure we have anyone who really projects to be that. We have potential quality bats, sure, in Davidson, Albies, Yepez, Riley, etc. But our bats are still either projected to be simply solid or too far away to really know.
I would certainly say our pitching talent, even in the low minors, clearly surpasses our hitting talent right now.
I'm not saying we should reach for a hitter. I'm saying if there is a legit bat when we pick and the value is good, take that bat, no matter what pitching is there...unless we're picking 1st or 2nd and there's just some clear stud ace there.
Well, no. Kershaw, Greinke and Scherzer have all been indisputably better this year, as have a few other NL pitchers.
The Red Sox won their 48th game tonight, so they join that group with us. In terms of pure games back, we're still 6 back of the Phillies but the Red Sox, Brewers, and Rockies all won to bring them closer to us. So we're tied with the Red Sox for that 6th pick now, 0.5 game back of the A's, 2 back of the Rockies, and 2.5 back of the Brewers for 3-4-5.
And yes, I care too much about this.
And yes, I care too much about this.