2016 DRAFT Signing Tracker ... FINAL, JULY 15

Ian Anderson graduates high school today. Should hear an announcement in the next day or two on his official signing.
 
Pachoo said:
Justin Ellison was signed from the same JuCo as Anthony last year and he had just as good of a batting line, maybe even better. So far Ellison has looked pretty pedestrian in the minors so I am not sure Anthony is a huge loss. Seems like the competition and hitting environment at Western Oklahama can lead to some misleading, hyperinflated batting stats.

This season Western Oklahoma has six guys on their roster with a slugging percentage over .600 and ten guys with a slugging percentage over .500. And, that is out of sixteen hitting lines on their roster. Almost half their roster is slugging .600 or better, in other words, so take Anthony's hitting stats with some healthy pessimism.
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Okay well Andrelton also came from there.
 
CJ9 said:
Yeah if anyone truly thought he had a chance to be a first rounder one day, there's no chance he would've lasted as long as he did. There are few things more meaningless than juco hitting stats.
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Plenty of JUCO guys have forgone signing to increase value. Groome almost went to JUCO... Most don't get pick because a combination. Uncertainty of how stats can translate... And they may not sign
 
50PoundHead said:
It's important to remember that Western Oklahoma is a D-2 JUCO. I'm not saying Anthony (or Ellison) won't become decent players, but it's not the highest level of competition. Andrelton Simmons also played at Western Oklahoma and hit .432 in his one season there.
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And let's not forget that Simmons was a pretty good offensive player for us for a while. His minors and rookie year were terrific. Not to mention many thought he'd be a pitcher
 
Pachoo said:
Justin Ellison was signed from the same JuCo as Anthony last year and he had just as good of a batting line, maybe even better. So far Ellison has looked pretty pedestrian in the minors so I am not sure Anthony is a huge loss. Seems like the competition and hitting environment at Western Oklahama can lead to some misleading, hyperinflated batting stats.

This season Western Oklahoma has six guys on their roster with a slugging percentage over .600 and ten guys with a slugging percentage over .500. And, that is out of sixteen hitting lines on their roster. Almost half their roster is slugging .600 or better, in other words, so take Anthony's hitting stats with some healthy pessimism.
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Also not ready to give up on Ellison... He's shown some flashes and it may be just a bit early to judge someone in their first year...
 
yeezus said:
Nope, but you don't really know. It's not about claiming they have infallible foresight. They brought him in, worked him out. Maybe they talked to him and his agent and got a gauge on what he'd want if drafted at 3? Makes sense, right?

But was he really? He went 11 - and if we're certain it wasn't because of money - then he was probably rated right around where Anderson was by most teams. It seems to me the league viewed Lewis differently than the evaluators did.

As I've stated, that's not all that controversial. I had the same preference (provided the money was the same, which I personally suspect it wasn't). In a vacuum I'd have like Lewis as well. It's the being so sure about things we can't be sure about that is silly, not the preference itself.

.
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In my opinion... players sign for what they think they're worth... not where they are drafted. This is why Anderson is willing to sign for 60% of slot. This is why the Groome's of the world are risky picks late in the first round. This is why Wentz and Muller are getting paid way over slot. If Lewis felt he was worth 5-6M, he had an easy course of action to take.
 
sturg33 said:
In my opinion... players sign for what they think they're worth... not where they are drafted. This is why Anderson is willing to sign for 60% of slot. This is why the Groome's of the world are risky picks late in the first round. This is why Wentz and Muller are getting paid way over slot. If Lewis felt he was worth 5-6M, he had an easy course of action to take.
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But that's just not correct - he doesn't have an easy course of action if he feels he's worth 5-6m and he get picked at #11. He's either taking a big pay cut, or going back to school -- neither those are 'easy courses of action' if a kid feels he's worth bigger money.
 
CJ9 said:
Yeah if anyone truly thought he had a chance to be a first rounder one day, there's no chance he would've lasted as long as he did. There are few things more meaningless than juco hitting stats.
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The stats are overstuffed, but if a guy is hitting a ton of homers -- he has some power in his bat -- and if he's stealing a bunch of bases -- he has some speed -- and we need as many power/speed positional players in our system as possible.

I wish we could have signed him, I'll be interested to see how he does at Auburn.
 
The nice thing is that we're lamenting our inability to sign a Day 3 guy, whereas the Angels are looking like they won't sign their second round pick.
 
Preacher said:
But that's just not correct - he doesn't have an easy course of action if he feels he's worth 5-6m and he get picked at #11. He's either taking a big pay cut, or going back to school -- neither those are 'easy courses of action' if a kid feels he's worth bigger money.
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The exact same thing can be said if he was drafted 3rd and the team would only offer him $3.2M. He either takes it, or he goes back to school
 
sturg33 said:
The exact same thing can be said if he was drafted 3rd and the team would only offer him $3.2M. He either takes it, or he goes back to school
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It usually comes down to which side is more willing to cave. When you're taken 11th and you're demanding $5-6 million, the team is not going to give you that if they didn't already plan for it. That's $2 million+ above slot value, and a team is probably not going to do that for someone like Kyle Lewis. So yes, his choice is basically to accept less or go back to school because he's just not going to ever get the team up there.

When a team takes a player 3rd and wants to pay them $3.2 million, it's because they're trying to save as much money as possible to use elsewhere. Well, if the player doesn't sign at all, they lose all of that extra slot space. That team is not going to allow that to happen. Knowing that's the case, the player's agent will continue to demand more until the team caves. Because the team absolutely will cave. They may not pay right at slot value or close to it because that doesn't really help them save money; but as long as they can get some savings still, they'll likely end up paying it.

But the team's not going to cave at an amount that far over slot at 11 because they can use the extra slot money to sign other players if they don't sign that player.

I don't know why this is tough to figure out. When you're working out an under slot deal, the player has more leverage. When you're working out an over slot deal, the team has more leverage.
 
We just disagree.

I think that a player who signed for $3.2M would also be willing to sign for $4M. You don't. Let's just move on. I'm tired of typing and reading the same responses
 
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