2016 DRAFT Signing Tracker ... FINAL, JULY 15

[yeezus]

literally no one, from anyone in the baseball world to the kid involved, thinks this is a big deal. it wasn't even spoken about lol. but here, it's doomsday.

 

[skillet]

Josh was very gracious in his reaction to this, mostly likely because he is a good kid, and the alternative, going to Auburn, was just as appealing to him as was being a Brave. This could have turned ugly. And while I understand there are moving parts to getting all the guys signed, this type thing simply should never have happened, and it makes you wonder what else might occur.

While it isn't cataclysmic, IMO it is a big deal, and we will just have to agree to disagree.

 

[Preacher]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to set up a spreadsheet with all our draftees and their signing amounts, with the total at the bottom. A 3rd grader could put it together. Our scouting department screwed something simple like that up, actually called a guy and offered him a contract with money we didn't have, and you say we shouldn't over react?

Yes, I do say we shouldn't 'over react'.

The pendulum swings so quickly on message boards, they messed up on JA, that's not a good thing. But he wasn't a guy they needed to sign to complete the class, Nelsony was picked specifically because his slot is needed to tie everything together. They probably have had his $10k bonus in the budget since he was picked.

Its a different situation than Josh Anthony.

 

[50PoundHead]

Josh was very gracious in his reaction to this, mostly likely because he is a good kid, and the alternative, going to Auburn, was just as appealing to him as was being a Brave. This could have turned ugly. And while I understand there are moving parts to getting all the guys signed, this type thing simply should never have happened, and it makes you wonder what else might occur.

While it isn't cataclysmic, IMO it is a big deal, and we will just have to agree to disagree.

My guess is the area scout didn't have a firm number from Josh until the very end of the negotiations. I doubt Anthony is livid. The Braves told him they were going to have to move money around for the signing to happen and when they couldn't move the necessary money, it didn't happen. In retrospect, what the Braves did wrong (if it can actually be classified as such) is that they were too aggressive with a couple of picks beyond Round 10 and that absorbed too much money. I suppose we can argue they went too high by going well above slot on Harrington and Wilson, but those guys were drafted on the second day, making them higher priorities. But this is really a tempest in a teapot.

 

[Preacher]

My guess is the area scout didn't have a firm number from Josh until the very end of the negotiations. I doubt Anthony is livid. The Braves told him they were going to have to move money around for the signing to happen and when they couldn't move the necessary money, it didn't happen. In retrospect, what the Braves did wrong (if it can actually be classified as such) is that they were too aggressive with a couple of picks beyond Round 10 and that absorbed too much money. I suppose we can argue they went too high by going well above slot on Harrington and Wilson, but those guys were drafted on the second day, making them higher priorities. But this is really a tempest in a teapot.

I was surprised they went overslot on Harrington.

 

[clvclv]

Please clarify this for me. Why would the Braves lose 30+ players from this year's draft by Neslony refusing to sign?

They won't - they'll pay Neslony. The point is that they have no choice. That's a huge hypothetical stretch to accentuate the point. If they don't, they lose the $161,580 they've already paid other players and have already exceeded the 5% overage. They can't go back on those contracts. If he doesn't sign for $10,000, they lose their 1st rounder next June - it's that simple.

Having played things SO CLOSE to the cap has put them in the position that Neslony actually has that leverage (again, I can't imagine he'd use it - I just won't feel great until he's signed). This reflects another mistake by the brass IMO - they've left themselves NO wiggle room. They can't say "take it or leave it". They're exactly $10,580 away from that penalty. They're as stretched as they can possibly be. All the other contracts are official and have been announced, meaning that if he felt he "deserved" a little more (and could even have a point), there's nowhere to go to get it. We're not even talking slot value, we're talking $10K. His slot value was $171,800. If he were even just asking for half that, we couldn't pay him without losing the pick.

That's just too big a gamble for my liking. I sincerely hope there's an agreement already in place and this is all just worrying for nothing, but gambling next year's 1st round pick by asking a player who's a career .311/.397/.511 hitter in the Big 12 won't take that miniscule an offer as a insult is a bigger gamble than I like.

 

[50PoundHead]

I was surprised they went overslot on Harrington.

As was I. Not saying he's not worthy of where he was picked, but I was surprised he required going above slot. Wilson is a bit more of a puzzler to me. Again, not saying he's not a solid pick, but he really came on like gangbusters his senior year in high school and had to be bought out of a college commitment. Curious to see how Wilson does. Supposedly has a monster fastball.

 

[Preacher]

They won't - they'll pay Neslony. The point is that they have no choice. That's a huge hypothetical stretch to accentuate the point. They can't go back on those contracts. If he doesn't sign for $10,000, they lose their 1st rounder next June - it's that simple.

Having played things SO CLOSE to the cap has put them in the position that Neslony actually has that leverage (again, I can't imagine he'd use it - I just won't feel great until he's signed). This reflects another mistake by the brass IMO - they've left themselves NO wiggle room. They can't say "take it or leave it" or they lose the pick. They're exactly $10,580 away from that penalty. They're as stretched as they can possibly be. All the other contracts are official and have been announced, meaning that if he felt he "deserved" a little more (and could even have a point), there's nowhere to go to get it. We're not even talking slot value, we're talking $10K. His slot value was $171,800. If he were even just asking for half that, we couldn't pay him without losing the pick.

That's just too big a gamble for my liking. I sincerely hope there's an agreement already in place and this is all just worrying for nothing, but gambling next year's 1st round pick by asking a player who's a career .311/.397/.511 hitter in the Big 12 won't take that miniscule an offer as a insult is a bigger gamble than I like.

Typically teams have that conversation with players before the draft right? I'm guessing he's already told them what he needs to sign, and the Braves took him with that knowledge.

I just don't see any way they would have locked up all their overslot guys without knowing what Nelsony was going to command. That would be ludicrous and I tend to think our baseball folks are actually pretty smart with this stuff.

 

[50PoundHead]

They won't - they'll pay Neslony. The point is that they have no choice. That's a huge hypothetical stretch to accentuate the point. They can't go back on those contracts. If he doesn't sign for $10,000, they lose their 1st rounder next June - it's that simple.

Having played things SO CLOSE to the cap has put them in the position that Neslony actually has that leverage (again, I can't imagine he'd use it - I just won't feel great until he's signed). This reflects another mistake by the brass IMO - they've left themselves NO wiggle room. They can't say "take it or leave it" or they lose the pick. They're exactly $10,580 away from that penalty. They're as stretched as they can possibly be. All the other contracts are official and have been announced, meaning that if he felt he "deserved" a little more (and could even have a point), there's nowhere to go to get it. We're not even talking slot value, we're talking $10K. His slot value was $171,800. If he were even just asking for half that, we couldn't pay him without losing the pick.

That's just too big a gamble for my liking. I sincerely hope there's an agreement already in place and this is all just worrying for nothing, but gambling next year's 1st round pick by asking a player who's a career .311/.397/.511 hitter in the Big 12 won't take that miniscule an offer as a insult is a bigger gamble than I like.

I agree in that you have to have solid commitments from the guys you draft and expect to sign for considerably below slot before you get too adventurous after Round 10. I suppose the other thing is don't draft guys who are in the College World Series so you can have clean books before you start throwing money around.

 

[sturg33]

Typically teams have that conversation with players before the draft right? I'm guessing he's already told them what he needs to sign, and the Braves took him with that knowledge.

I just don't see any way they would have locked up all their overslot guys without knowing what Nelsony was going to command. That would be ludicrous and I tend to think our baseball folks are actually pretty smart with this stuff.

Well... I would imagine pre-draft agreements don't mean much... I'd be surprised if we bungle this, but it does seem we're at the mercy of a kid

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think it will all be fine. I can't imagine a FO going into something and blowing a draft by not having ducks in a row... but I still don't understand how you don't sign all your Draft pool guys and then lock up overslots in round 10+

just seems like unnecessary risks IMO..

and for the record.. the Anthony thing was a big blunder... you don't offer a bonus if you don't know.. PERIOD!!! do your homework first. it worries me a little that they are just doing things with out making sure the T's are crossed and I's are dotted FIRST!!!!

 

[clvclv]

I agree in that you have to have solid commitments from the guys you draft and expect to sign for considerably below slot before you get too adventurous after Round 10. I suppose the other thing is don't draft guys who are in the College World Series so you can have clean books before you start throwing money around.

This is the point in a nutshell. I'm not saying they didn't talk to him and discuss this before drafting him at all - I'd hope someone's fired if they didn't. The thing is, Bridges himself admitted he was the one who goofed up the Anthony offer - you can't go much higher than that. If those kind of blunders are happening, you don't think there's any chance someone just might've read Neslony wrong? After all, he's a 22 year old kid. It wouldn't be the first time someone that young thought they were getting a good deal - getting paid to keep chasing their dream of playing in the big leagues - and then realizing the team giving him that chance was "short-changing" him so they could give more money to other kids who've never competed against the level of competition he's been very successful against.

 

[skillet]

Well... I would imagine pre-draft agreements don't mean much... I'd be surprised if we bungle this, but it does seem we're at the mercy of a kid

Yes we are, and as others have aptly pointed out, we've put ourselves in a very tenable position. I'd really like to know why Neslony hasn't signed yet. I know we have a couple weeks left, but if we do have a pre-agreement (we damn well better have), and he is no longing playing, what is the holdup? This, along with the JA bungle, is quite troubling.

 

[50PoundHead]

I think it will all be fine. I can't imagine a FO going into something and blowing a draft by not having ducks in a row... but I still don't understand how you don't sign all your Draft pool guys and then lock up overslots in round 10+

just seems like unnecessary risks IMO..

and for the record.. the Anthony thing was a big blunder... you don't offer a bonus if you don't know.. PERIOD!!! do your homework first. it worries me a little that they are just doing things with out making sure the T's are crossed and I's are dotted FIRST!!!!

But according to Anthony's father, the Braves made it clear they were going to have to move money from somewhere else to meet Josh's contract demands. I'm not arguing that there weren't some missteps, but it seems they made it clear to the Anthonys that something else had to happen before they could make the money work.

 

[clvclv]

Typically teams have that conversation with players before the draft right? I'm guessing he's already told them what he needs to sign, and the Braves took him with that knowledge.

I just don't see any way they would have locked up all their overslot guys without knowing what Nelsony was going to command. That would be ludicrous and I tend to think our baseball folks are actually pretty smart with this stuff.

The point is that pre-draft agreements - just like Maitan's supposed handshake agreement - are completely useless if the player decides he wants more. We're completely at Neslony's mercy and counting on his staying true to his word. I can think of at least once (OK, maybe even a couple of times) that I might've changed my mind when I was 22.

 

[skillet]

But according to Anthony's father, the Braves made it clear they were going to have to move money from somewhere else to meet Josh's contract demands. I'm not arguing that there weren't some missteps, but it seems they made it clear to the Anthonys that something else had to happen before they could make the money work.

So then why not leave it at that. Simply, we'd love to sign you, and here is the amount we'd like to offer if we can move some money around, but until then, we can't give you a formal offer. Instead, they went ahead and made the offer before they knew if they really could.

 

[skillet]

The point is that pre-draft agreements - just like Maitan's supposed handshake agreement - are completely useless if the player decides he wants more. We're completely at Neslony's mercy and counting on his staying true to his word. I can think of at least once (OK, maybe even a couple of times) that I might've changed my mind when I was 22.

Exactly, and our whole draft depends on it. Very bad position to have put ourselves in.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Exactly, and our whole draft depends on it. Very bad position to have put ourselves in.

our whole draft doesn't depend on it.. our whole NEXT year's draft depends on it!! but hey, if he doesn't sign, can we go back to Anthony and say, here is more money.. come sign now. lol..

 

[smootness]

That is the point - it's not an either/or situation. If he won't take $10,000 (or less), the Braves will be faced with the choice of paying his price to keep the other players drafted this year and losing their 1st round pick next June.

The "benefit" (an awfully loose term in this situation) is that the Braves get to keep all the players drafted and signed in this class. As Matt mentioned (my calculations reflected the same $10K left in our pool), anything over that would automatically force us to surrender next year's 1st rounder. The question would then be - are they willing to let the 30+ players already signed go to protect that pick by choosing NOT to pay Neslony?

Again, I think that would be both beyond stupid in his situation AND likely not the case since we haven't heard anywhere that there are any rumblings of concern. However, given the Anthony situation, I won't feel "good" until he's signed. It's awfully tough (for me, anyway) to feel confident that all this is "locked down" after that bungling.

Yes, it is an either/or. We don't lose all our other signees if Neslony doesn't sign. We do lose our 1st rounder next year, but the same is true if he signs for more than 10K. If he doesn't sign, we lose the slot value of that pick, which means we will then be over our bonus pool by more than 5% and will lose our 1st rounder next year. But we wouldn't lose our other signees. Why would that be the case?

 

[clvclv]

So then why not leave it at that. Simply, we'd love to sign you, and here is the amount we'd like to offer if we can move some money around, but until then, we can't give you a formal offer. Instead, they went ahead and made the offer before they knew if they really could.

Actually, I haven't personally seen any word anywhere that there was any formal offer (doesn't mean there wasn't one). The only "official" thing I've seen was Anthony's tweet saying he was going to sign and report. I haven't seen any evidence that Bridges wasn't completely up front with the Anthonys (and possibly even said exactly that) and Josh didn't jump the gun before things could be worked out.

The whole situation does look like an innocent mistake. Unfortunately, those kinds of mistakes are pretty unforgivable when you're dealing with things on this level. Just looks disorganized and like there are "too many cooks in the kitchen" - too many people have the authority to negotiate without needing to touch base and check in. As someone mentioned earlier - having a central "capologist" that everyone checks in with and at the very least gives a bid ceiling to shouldn't require creating another position within the organization. I'm sure Matt and I aren't the only people who set up a simple spreadsheet to track things.