2016 DRAFT Signing Tracker ... FINAL, JULY 15

Deester11 said:
And yet the few naysayers say the strategy was flawed. I'd venture to say that IF the Braves wanted him, he'd be a Brave. I like the pitchers we got. Doesn't much matter about the hand wringing on either side. I'm in with the FO on this.
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Well, the very ones saying Atlanta is taking the wrong strategy by focusing on pitching will be the same ones that complain that Kyle Lewis is striking out 30% of the time as he faces more advanced pitchers or that Corey Ray is putting up platoon splits as he goes through the minors.

It appears that the only hitter the Braves actually considered at 3 was Nick Senzel, and while I'm not convinced of his upside, they know more than I do about these guys.
 
dak said:
It's a relatively small sample, but here is the % of slot that these top 10 college juniors signed for in 2015. No one below 76%, weighted average at 87%.

Bonus Slot % of Slot
Swanson: 6500000 8600000 76%
Bregman: 5900000 7400000 80%
Tate: 4200000 5000000 84%
Jay: 3900000 3900000 100%
Benintendi: 3600000 3600000 100%
Fulmer: 3500000 3500000 100%
Happ: 3000000 3300000 91%
Total 30600000 35300000 87%
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I'd bet no college junior has signed for 60% of slot any time recently, if ever, and especially not at 3rd overall.
 
dak said:
It's a relatively small sample, but here is the % of slot that these top 10 college juniors signed for in 2015. No one below 76%, weighted average at 87%.

Bonus Slot % of Slot

Swanson: 6500000 8600000 76%

Bregman: 5900000 7400000 80%

Tate: 4200000 5000000 84%

Jay: 3900000 3900000 100%

Benintendi: 3600000 3600000 100%

Fulmer: 3500000 3500000 100%

Happ: 3000000 3300000 91%

Total 30600000 35300000 87%
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Good info. Thanks for sharing.

We'll never know... but I'm still convinced anyone who signs at $3.2M is signable at $4m. But we're going in circles here so time to move on.
 
dak said:
It's a relatively small sample, but here is the % of slot that these top 10 college juniors signed for in 2015. No one below 76%, weighted average at 87%.

Bonus Slot % of Slot
Swanson: 6500000 8600000 76%
Bregman: 5900000 7400000 80%
Tate: 4200000 5000000 84%
Jay: 3900000 3900000 100%
Benintendi: 3600000 3600000 100%
Fulmer: 3500000 3500000 100%
Happ: 3000000 3300000 91%
Total 30600000 35300000 87%
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Good info, lets say Lewis signs for the low end of that group and gets 76% of his slot value, that's about $5 million, you're likely not getting one of Wentz/Muller at that point.
 
sturg33 said:
The draft was fine. We got good talent. I'm not that upset about the talent acquired.

But the complete lack of attention paid to hitters is starting to get alarming, if you ask me
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We need more hitters, but in general we just need more talent. Always always go BPA in the draft - if the Braves think a pitcher is the better player, that's who you go with.

Now the scouts may be wrong; time will tell on both Anderson and Lewis; but I'm very comfortable with the team's apparent focus on drafting who they think is at the top of their board. Not the top of MLBs board.
 
sturg33 said:
Good info. Thanks for sharing.

We'll never know... but I'm still convinced anyone who signs at $3.2M is signable at $4m. But we're going in circles here so time to move on.
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so, just to be 100% clear: you believe Lewis would almost certainly sign for 60% of slot at 3 despite it rarely, if ever, happening before? and you base this solely on the fact he signed for $3.2 (btw, almost full slot), at 11? are you able to at least admit that him signing for an unprecedented discount isn't a "relative certainty"?
 
Preacher said:
Good info, lets say Lewis signs for the low end of that group and gets 76% of his slot value, that's about $5 million, you're likely not getting one of Wentz/Muller at that point.
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Bottom line is this though. What Lewis would sign for really doesn't have much bearing on this. The Braves looked at him, but they obviously weren't taking him regardless of what he signed for. Brian Bridges said in the interview with Bill that they spent a lot of time looking at the college hitters, and in their opinion, the high school arms represented more long term value for them.

If there was a debate of a $5 million signing bonus vs a $3.5-4 million signing bonus, it was likely between Ian Anderson and Riley Pint. I think they had Anderson and Pint rated very close on their board, and the deciding factor between the two was that Anderson would do a deal that would allow them to get Joey Wentz/Taylor Trammel/Kyle Muller in some order, as those were the three guys they had targeted at that pick.
 
yeezus said:
so, just to be 100% clear: you believe Lewis would almost certainly sign for 60% of slot at 3 despite it rarely, if ever, happening before? and you base this solely on the fact he signed for $3.2 (btw, almost full slot), at 11? are you able to at least admit that him signing for an unprecedented discount isn't a "relative certainty"?
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I think we are hoping that Anderson will sign for 60% of slot at #3... so your point is not relevant. we only have ~5 million to sign both Anderson and Cumberland...
 
KB21 said:
Bottom line is this though. What Lewis would sign for really doesn't have much bearing on this. The Braves looked at him, but they obviously weren't taking him regardless of what he signed for. Brian Bridges said in the interview with Bill that they spent a lot of time looking at the college hitters, and in their opinion, the high school arms represented more long term value for them.

If there was a debate of a $5 million signing bonus vs a $3.5-4 million signing bonus, it was likely between Ian Anderson and Riley Pint. I think they had Anderson and Pint rated very close on their board, and the deciding factor between the two was that Anderson would do a deal that would allow them to get Joey Wentz/Taylor Trammel/Kyle Muller in some order, as those were the three guys they had targeted at that pick.
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I agree with this.
 
yeezus said:
so, just to be 100% clear: you believe Lewis would almost certainly sign for 60% of slot at 3 despite it rarely, if ever, happening before? and you base this solely on the fact he signed for $3.2 (btw, almost full slot), at 11? are you able to at least admit that him signing for an unprecedented discount isn't a "relative certainty"?
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I'll reduce my "relatively certain" to "fairly certain"
 
So the three biggest grumps of the draft:

1) Ian Anderson not worthy of #3 pick. Time will tell on this one. We might have an idea early on if his velocity is consistently in the mid 90's as reported.
2) Braves need to successfully execute their plan. Wentz and Muller have signed.
3) Braves should have taken a position player. With the top two position players off the board the only options that seemed worthy of the #3 were argued to be Ray and Lewis. Time will tell if these guys develop into decent hitters.
 
So while this same old debate crap that won't ever get resolved is happening. How about we get back to the actual topic which is news of signings.
 
weso1 said:
So the three biggest grumps of the draft:

1) Ian Anderson not worthy of #3 pick. Time will tell on this one. We might have an idea early on if his velocity is consistently in the mid 90's as reported.
2) Braves need to successfully execute their plan. Wentz and Muller have signed.
3) Braves should have taken a position player. With the top two position players off the board the only options that seemed worthy of the #3 were argued to be Ray and Lewis. Time will tell if these guys develop into decent hitters.
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And from the looks of it... If Cumberland signs. He could be a huge bat if he finds a position
 
yeezus said:
bahahahaha

if he were drafted to a place with a slot value of 6.5, after hearing for weeks he was one of the top players, you can say "with relative certainty" that he signs for 4m?! no, you cannot. YOU can say very little about this with relative certainty because you don't know a damn thing.

it makes plenty of sense because falling to 11 changes the situation. if he were taken 3, in his and his agent's mind, that's where he was supposed to go. realizing that teams aren't as high on you as some writers thought they would/should be is likely a little sobering. Senzel signed for 1.5 under slot, and very few had him ranked above Lewis. If Lewis is taken at 3, with Senzel getting 6.2 at 2, you can tell yourself you're certain Lewis signs for 4, but you're wrong. You don't know as much as you think or pretend.
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Why didn't Lewis go back to school this year?

Just curious because what sturg says makes 10000% sense
 
Isn't good, nay great, that we signed both Wentz and Muller? That was a huge part of the Braves plan. And all I hear is more griping.
 
dak said:
It's a relatively small sample, but here is the % of slot that these top 10 college juniors signed for in 2015. No one below 76%, weighted average at 87%.

Bonus Slot % of Slot

Swanson: 6500000 8600000 76%

Bregman: 5900000 7400000 80%

Tate: 4200000 5000000 84%

Jay: 3900000 3900000 100%

Benintendi: 3600000 3600000 100%

Fulmer: 3500000 3500000 100%

Happ: 3000000 3300000 91%

Total 30600000 35300000 87%
Click to expand...

Benintendi wasn't a college junior. He was a draft eligible sophomore (21 years old). As such he had much more leverage.
 
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Nerfherders said:
Isn't good, nay great, that we signed both Wentz and Muller? That was a huge part of the Braves plan. And all I hear is more griping.
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Great—but a very qualified "great", at least until Anderson and (especially) Cumberland are locked down (while obviously the linchpin to the entire enterprise is Handsome Monica.)
 
yeezus said:
Anderson is not a college junior (the crux of his argument) and we set a pre-draft deal.
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Which may very well have been for 60% of the slot-value at #3 if you believe we were trying to float him to 40th. I don't disagree with those who say that this may have been the plan. If whatever bats they were interested in at #3 wouldn't agree to a bonus that made the numbers work, they quickly adjusted and worked quickly to adjust and got two extra pretty high-ceiling arms.
 
jpx7 said:
Great—but a very qualified "great", at least until Anderson and (especially) Cumberland are locked down (while obviously the linchpin to the entire enterprise is Handsome Monica.)
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Pretty sure Anderson's "locked-down" - IIRC, he was waiting until graduating to sign and he doesn't graduate until the 23rd.
 
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