2016 DRAFT Signing Tracker ... FINAL, JULY 15

chop2chip said:
Why didn't Lewis go back to school this year?

Just curious because what sturg says makes 10000% sense
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I understand the logic, especially when hindsight is involved. But if Lewis went at 3, I can't imagine why he'd take 60% of slot to sign. No one would have the benefit of knowing that if Lewis went 11 he'd sign for 3.2. That knowledge ceases to exist.

Do you believe Lewis would sign for $4M, $2.5 under slot and around 60% of it, despite it being seemingly unprecedented for a college junior?

all of this is incredibly moot, anyway. lewis was clearly not valued as highly by MLB teams as he was by prognosticators.
 
The biggest evidence to me that Kyle Lewis would have signed a similar slot as Ian Anderson is that Kyle Lewis worked out with the Braves two days before the draft. I doubt that we would have reverse course so suddenly after a poor workout.
 
yeezus said:
I understand the logic, especially when hindsight is involved. But if Lewis went at 3, I can't imagine why he'd take 60% of slot to sign. No one would have the benefit of knowing that if Lewis went 11 he'd sign for 3.2. That knowledge ceases to exist.

Do you believe Lewis would sign for $4M, $2.5 under slot and around 60% of it, despite it being seemingly unprecedented for a college junior?

all of this is incredibly moot, anyway. lewis was clearly not valued as highly by MLB teams as he was by prognosticators.
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I haven't liked Lewis from the beginning, so I'm fine not taking him. But the Braves could definitely know he would have signed for $4 million by, ya know, talking with him about it before the draft. No hindsight is needed.

Perhaps, they did and Lewis was confident he wouldn't drop to 11, but I think it's a reasonable thing to assume that could have and should have happened if the Braves liked him more. Quite frankly, I believe would have happened if he impressed in his workout.
 
Quite frankly, we have more evidence at this point that Lewis would have signed for 3.2 million than not, since he did indeed sign for 3.2 million than return to Mercer. When push came to shove, Lewis took the money. Let's not retroactively assign him a minimum number to sign when he already set that number in negotiation.
 
chop2chip said:
Quite frankly, we have more evidence at this point that Lewis would have signed for 3.2 million than not, since he did indeed sign for 3.2 million than return to Mercer. When push came to shove, Lewis took the money. Let's not retroactively assign him a minimum number to sign when he already set that number in negotiation.
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That's exactly right... we have indisputable evidence that Lewis was willing to forgo his college leverage in exchange for $3.2M... Therefore, it's a reasonable assumption that he would have done it for $4
 
clvclv said:
Pretty sure Anderson's "locked-down" - IIRC, he was waiting until graduating to sign and he doesn't graduate until the 23rd.
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It's always nice to have it official, though—but that's part of the reason I emphasized Cumberland "especially".
 
chop2chip said:
I haven't liked Lewis from the beginning, so I'm fine not taking him. But the Braves could definitely know he would have signed for $4 million by, ya know, talking with him about it before the draft. No hindsight is needed.

Perhaps, they did and Lewis was confident he wouldn't drop to 11, but I think it's a reasonable thing to assume that could have and should have happened if the Braves liked him more. Quite frankly, I believe would have happened if he impressed in his workout.
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You're definitely right. The Braves knew before the draft what it would take to sign Lewis, and even if they liked him slightly more than Anderson they obviously felt he wasn't worth whatever amount he was willing to sign for. So the Braves took Anderson, Wentz and Muller instead of Lewis plus whoever else they could have subsequently afforded at 40/44.

It could very well turn out to be a solid strategy. I wanted Lewis, but I'm just some guy sitting at work chatting about his favorite baseball team on a message board. The Braves had him in for a workout a few days before the draft, and had several professional baseball people check him out. They concluded he wasn't going to be the #3 pick in the draft.

Doesn't mean I have to be happy about it or agree with it just because I'm a Braves fan.
 
sturg33 said:
The Braves had the money to give anyone they picked at 3 basically the slot value of the 6th pick... that's not too difficult of an argument to make if you're the team.
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Sure, but when his agent says, 'Nah, we'll take $5 million, the Braves aren't going to ultimately risk not signing him by refusing. They may initially, but they're going to eventually cave, and the agent knows that.
 
sturg33 said:
Good info. Thanks for sharing.

We'll never know... but I'm still convinced anyone who signs at $3.2M is signable at $4m. But we're going in circles here so time to move on.
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But take this to the extreme - our 11th round pick was signed for $400,000. So at #3 overall, are we going to sign him for $500,000? Or $1 million? Of course not. Where the team takes you has huge importance in how much you're going to demand.
 
chop2chip said:
Quite frankly, we have more evidence at this point that Lewis would have signed for 3.2 million than not, since he did indeed sign for 3.2 million than return to Mercer. When push came to shove, Lewis took the money. Let's not retroactively assign him a minimum number to sign when he already set that number in negotiation.
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This is a terrible argument. He's not going to demand $5 million at #11. Do people realize what slot values are and how that changes how much money a team is able and willing to pay someone?

He doesn't have unlimited leverage as a college junior to demand anything he wants at any draft slot. But he still does have leverage and is going to use that to get as much of the slot value for the pick where he's actually taken as possible. The team and the player both have strong incentive to get the deal done, so the team can't just say, 'What's your minimum?' and then pay him that. Not how negotiations work.
 
smootness said:
But take this to the extreme - our 11th round pick was signed for $400,000. So at #3 overall, are we going to sign him for $500,000? Or $1 million? Of course not. Where the team takes you has huge importance in how much you're going to demand.
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I think he would sign for $500,000. In your extreme example the Braves could tell him that if he doesn't take that offer they won't draft him. He would then probably have an idea that he's not going to be drafted for a long while if his agent is competent.

Now, where the player may have some leverage is if the team fails to sign him, then they lose all of that slot value. That's why pre-draft agreements are so critical. Hypothetically, Ian Anderson could come to the Braves and demand $5 million and threaten to go to school. If the Braves knew he was serious, then it would be in their best interest to sign him for $5 million because there's no way they can sign Wentz and Muller without the #3 slot value.

So, it's true that the hypothetical 11th rounder has more leverage at #3 than in the 11th round, but it's in his best interest to ensure he gets drafted as high as possible. In the end, I think you would see the player settle at $500,000 because he's being paid a premium (i.e. an amount more than his value) for complying with the Braves and he gets to have the label of "top 3" draft pick the rest of his life.
 
smootness said:
This is a terrible argument. He's not going to demand $5 million at #11. Do people realize what slot values are and how that changes how much money a team is able and willing to pay someone?

He doesn't have unlimited leverage as a college junior to demand anything he wants at any draft slot. But he still does have leverage and is going to use that to get as much of the slot value for the pick where he's actually taken as possible. The team and the player both have strong incentive to get the deal done, so the team can't just say, 'What's your minimum?' and then pay him that. Not how negotiations work.
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So, he's going to willingly not take $4 million at number 3 so that he can make $3.2 million at #11?

And "what's your minimum?" isn't what they are going to say because... duh. But that's definitely what they are going to try to negotiate to.
 
chop2chip said:
So, he's going to willingly not take $4 million at number 3 so that he can make $3.2 million at #11?

And "what's your minimum?" isn't what they are going to say because... duh. But that's definitely what they are going to try to negotiate to.
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He doesn't have the knowledge that he would be picked 11th if he was picked 3rd. I don't know why that is not being grasped.

Sure they're going to try to negotiate to his minimum. And Lewis will try to negotiate to the Braves' maximum. Because that's how deals work. So he won't end up at either. The Braves' max would be anything south of the actual slot value, and Lewis' minimum would be something a good bit lower. They will meet in the middle.

Lewis' true minimum is likely not $3.2 million. It's likely much lower. But he got $3.2 million because of where he was picked. Again, why is this difficult to understand? You can't go into a negotiation and say, 'Eh, what if you were drafted 11th?' Lewis would simply say, 'I don't care, you took me 3rd.'

You focus on the fact that Lewis wouldn't just go back to college for a million or so, but you neglect the fact that the Braves wouldn't let him go back to college over a million or so, either.
 
I'm also a bit perturbed—especially with the team moving to the suburbs—that we still haven't signed our full quota of Whites this draft.
 
smootness said:
He doesn't have the knowledge that he would be picked 11th if he was picked 3rd. I don't know why that is not being grasped.

Sure they're going to try to negotiate to his minimum. And Lewis will try to negotiate to the Braves' maximum. Because that's how deals work. So he won't end up at either. The Braves' max would be anything south of the actual slot value, and Lewis' minimum would be something a good bit lower. They will meet in the middle.

Lewis' true minimum is likely not $3.2 million. It's likely much lower. But he got $3.2 million because of where he was picked. Again, why is this difficult to understand? You can't go into a negotiation and say, 'Eh, what if you were drafted 11th?' Lewis would simply say, 'I don't care, you took me 3rd.'

You focus on the fact that Lewis wouldn't just go back to college for a million or so, but you neglect the fact that the Braves wouldn't let him go back to college over a million or so, either.
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Ok then we should expect Anderson to do the same...
 
jpx7 said:
I'm also a bit perturbed—especially with the team moving to the suburbs—that we still haven't signed our full quota of Whites this draft.
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Something tells me the Whites are going to feel comfortable in Cobb County.
 
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