2016 Postseason Thread

[smootness]

If I'm the Indians I plan on Allen for 2 and Miller for 2. Possibly Shaw for 1 during a stretch of RH bats. I would try to avoid taking Kluber out before the 4th, but if he's in trouble in the 4, I would not hesitate to pull him.

The bigger question is why didn't the Indians find some scummy lefty to add to bullpen?

Well, but Kluber is a better pitcher than Allen, or at least as good. So I wouldn't necessarily go in with the plan to use Allen at the expense of Kluber. So I'd just let Kluber pitch until it looks like he's starting to lose his best stuff, then I'd take him out at the first sign of trouble. You just hope that's in inning 6 or so instead of inning 3 or 4.

And once I put Miller in, I'd go with the same plan. I wouldn't plan to use him for just 2, I'd let him pitch as long as he was effective. If that's close to 4 innings, then so be it.

 

[smootness]

Thought I heard Maddon mumble something in his postgame interview about not being able to get Strop ready quick enough for the first hitter in the 9th. Definitely makes it seem more curious IMO.

Haha he didn't have enough time during the commercial break and while the Cubs were hitting to get warm?

 

[Enscheff]

I found the Adonis decision more damnable due to Snit falling into the sample size trap rather than lineup optimization. The hitter Adonis was in the second half definitely warranted justification for hitting second.

As for Chapman, absolutely true. Although, didn't Maddon due some of this in the Dodgers series? In general it seems like a lot of teams this postseason through their big guns lots of innings.

Snit can't even be consistent with his small sample errors though.

Adonis had 1 month where he performed well enough to bat 2nd, when he posted a .907 OPS in July. In August and Sept he was his predictably bad self, posting OBP's of .313 and .320.

Meanwhile, Swanson was putting up a .381 OBP in Sept.

So if Garcia's good July was enough to cement his spot in the 2nd hole, why wasn't Swanson's Sept numbers good enough to get him into the 2 spot when Adonis predictably turned back into a pumpkin?

Moving forward, does anyone truly think Adonis Garcia is a better option to bat 2nd for the Atlanta Braves than Dansby Swanson? Further, does anyone think Adonis should be higher in the lineup than Inciarte, Swanson, Freeman, Kemp or Markakis?

If Adonis Garcia is batting in the top half of the lineup to begin the 2017 season, I don't need to know anything else about Snitker to call him a bad tactician. If he can't perform simple lineup optimizations like that, then I have zero faith in him to competently perform any other tactical maneuvers. He can be the best people person in the world, but that doesn't excuse blatant tactical errors that are easily corrected. Those 2 skill sets are not mutually exclusive...a guy can have both.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Haha he didn't have enough time during the commercial break and while the Cubs were hitting to get warm?

Why didn't he have them warming to start the 9th.. even Cowboy said prior to the Cubs batting 'if the cubs score some runs, I would take Chap out... ' How is this master mind of a manager not foresighted enough to have a few scrubs warming up in the top of the 9th..

 

[50PoundHead]

Both managers kind of played that same card. Scared that there team would blow a 5 run lead (why else throw Chapman/Allen/Miller). How sharp will Chapman be? Doubt he can be sharp over 2-3 innings, but maybe adrenaline gets him through.

Rodon has to feel like chopped liver. The guy isn't lights-out, but he was a decent closer for the Cubs.

 

[50PoundHead]

Snit can't even be consistent with his small sample errors though.

Adonis had 1 month where he performed well enough to bat 2nd, when he posted a .907 OPS in July. In August and Sept he was his predictably bad self, posting OBP's of .313 and .320.

Meanwhile, Swanson was putting up a .381 OBP in Sept.

So if Garcia's good July was enough to cement his spot in the 2nd hole, why wasn't Swanson's Sept numbers good enough to get him into the 2 spot when Adonis predictably turned back into a pumpkin?

Moving forward, does anyone truly think Adonis Garcia is a better option to bat 2nd for the Atlanta Braves than Dansby Swanson? Further, does anyone think Adonis should be higher in the lineup than Inciarte, Swanson, Freeman, Kemp or Markakis?

If Adonis Garcia in lineup to begin the 2017 season, I don't need to know anything else about Snitker to call him a bad tactician. If he can't perform simple lineup optimizations like that, then I have zero faith in him to competently perform any other tactical maneuvers. He can be the best people person in the world, but that doesn't excuse blatant tactical errors that are easily corrected. Those 2 skill sets are not mutually exclusive...a guy can have both.

FIFY.

 

[Enscheff]

Bringing Chapman in to put out the fire with 2 men on base and up by 5 in an elimination game is defensible. Letting him continue to pitch the 8th with a 5 run lead in an elimination game was defensible.

Not having another guy getting warm in case one of the best offenses in the game piles on a couple more runs against Cleveland's not-so-good BP arms was stupid. Allowing Chapman to throw a single pitch when up by 7 was almost inexcusable.

Luckily, Chapman only threw 20 pitches, so his availability shouldn't be affected much, if at all.

 

[Enscheff]

FIFY.

Well, unfortunately, it looks like we are going to suffer through another season of "seeing what Garcia is". The best we can hope for is a platoon with Ruiz, as unappealing as that will be.

I can't say I mind it all that much now that the bulk of the non-QO options at 3B have been removed from the FA market. There just isn't a cheap and obvious upgrade at 3B for the Braves to make this offseason.

 

[gilesfan]

Well, but Kluber is a better pitcher than Allen, or at least as good. So I wouldn't necessarily go in with the plan to use Allen at the expense of Kluber. So I'd just let Kluber pitch until it looks like he's starting to lose his best stuff, then I'd take him out at the first sign of trouble. You just hope that's in inning 6 or so instead of inning 3 or 4.

And once I put Miller in, I'd go with the same plan. I wouldn't plan to use him for just 2, I'd let him pitch as long as he was effective. If that's close to 4 innings, then so be it.

Kluber is probably the better pitcher, but if it is the 3rd time through the order, on 3 days rest, and with a team that has seen him so often in a short amount of time, is he still the better pitcher?

 

[smootness]

Kluber is probably the better pitcher, but if it is the 3rd time through the order, on 3 days rest, and with a team that has seen him so often in a short amount of time, is he still the better pitcher?

That's why I said you have to play it by ear and see where he is. I'm just saying I wouldn't go in with a definite plan to use Allen for 2 innings because you risk removing Kluber too early at that point.

My plan would be: throw Kluber until you see signs of decline, then throw Miller for as long as you can, then go to Allen if there's any game left.

 

[clvclv]

Haha he didn't have enough time during the commercial break and while the Cubs were hitting to get warm?

Didn't listen real closely to the interview since I was heading to bed, but did hear him asked about the situation and distinctively heard him say they couldn't get Strop ready in time (didn't attempt to give a reason that I heard). He did say he expects to be able to use Chapman "as needed" tonight - no restrictions.

 

[Enscheff]

That's why I said you have to play it by ear and see where he is. I'm just saying I wouldn't go in with a definite plan to use Allen for 2 innings because you risk removing Kluber too early at that point.

My plan would be: throw Kluber until you see signs of decline, then throw Miller for as long as you can, then go to Allen if there's any game left.

Kluber is not a better pitcher than Allen in a 1-2 inning stint. Kluber is more valuable because he can pitch effectively for more innings, but he is not a better pitcher than Allen or Miller. Kluber's only job is to eat enough innings effectively so Miller and Allen can finish the game. Those 2 BP guys should be able to complete 5 innings, meaning Kluber needs to eat 4 innings. If Allen gets into trouble the Indians should then go to Shaw.

The Indians should go 4/3/2 with Kluber, Miller and Allen if the game is tied or within 1 run. If the Indians are winning by 2 or more runs, they can let Kluber start the 5th, and bring in Miller as soon as Kluber allows a base runner. In no scenario should Kluber be allowed to pitch past the 5th inning.

If Kluber can't get through 4 effective innings the Indians are probably done, but they could go 3/3/2/1 with Shaw pitching the last inning..

 

[Enscheff]

The Cubs seem to plan to use Hendricks, Lester and Chapman for something like 5/2/2. Since Lester can not be brought in with runners on base in the middle of an inning, they may need to use someone like Edwards to get a few outs between Hendricks and Lester.

Since Lester is going to pitch ~2 innings no matter what, they are going to start Ross and suffer with his inferior bat in the lineup rather than letting Contreras start. Because of this, I would think about starting Lester and Ross and have the innings divided 2/5/2. That might allow the Cubs to get through 2 innings without Ross ever batting, at which point Contreras would come in to catch Hendricks and bat the rest of the game.

 

[gilesfan]

This is just terrible logic by the Cubs. Just let Contreras start.

 

[smootness]

Kluber is not a better pitcher than Allen in a 1-2 inning stint. Kluber is more valuable because he can pitch effectively for more innings, but he is not a better pitcher than Allen or Miller. Kluber's only job is to eat enough innings effectively so Miller and Allen can finish the game. Those 2 BP guys should be able to complete 5 innings, meaning Kluber needs to eat 4 innings. If Allen gets into trouble the Indians should then go to Shaw.

The Indians should go 4/3/2 with Kluber, Miller and Allen if the game is tied or within 1 run. If the Indians are winning by 2 or more runs, they can let Kluber start the 5th, and bring in Miller as soon as Kluber allows a base runner. In no scenario should Kluber be allowed to pitch past the 5th inning.

If Kluber can't get through 4 effective innings the Indians are probably done, but they could go 3/3/2/1 with Shaw pitching the last inning..

Kluber, even on an inning-by-inning basis, is as good a pitcher as Allen. And it's a Game 7, where presumably he will be going more max-effort than normal, which is usually the big advantage RPs have over SPs.

Saying Kluber should not be allowed to pitch past the 5th is just stupid. You have no idea what the others pitchers are going to give you or what will happen, so if Kluber is still on top of his game, he should absolutely be allowed to stay in beyond 5.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

This is just terrible logic by the Cubs. Just let Contreras start.

He is

 

[Enscheff]

Kluber, even on an inning-by-inning basis, is as good a pitcher as Allen. And it's a Game 7, where presumably he will be going more max-effort than normal, which is usually the big advantage RPs have over SPs.

Saying Kluber should not be allowed to pitch past the 5th is just stupid. You have no idea what the others pitchers are going to give you or what will happen, so if Kluber is still on top of his game, he should absolutely be allowed to stay in beyond 5.

So Francona doesn't know what Miller and Allen will give him, but he magically knows what Kluber will give him from inning to inning on short rest for the 2nd consecutive time when he is approaching 70+ p[itches? All pitchers are "cruising" until they suddenly aren't.

Kluber: .275 wOBA allowed. Allen: .255 wOBA allowed. Allen > Kluber.

Kluber is on short rest for the 2nd straight start. Allen is a fully rested BP arm.

A typical starting pitcher’s OPS-against climbs from .705 to .731 to .771 as they turn the lineup over. Allen will face each hitter once.

All that added up and a 4/3/2 split is the correct decision if the goal is to get the best pitchers throwing the most high leverage innings, even if Kluber is "cruising" through 4 innings. If Kluber is pitching well and the Indians are up by 2+ runs, it might be wise to allow Kluber to start the 5th with a quick hook ready. He will likely be at 70+ pitches by then, and there is no doubt a fully rested Miller/Allen combo is superior to Kluber on 3 days rest (for the 2nd time) after 70+ pitches.

Francona will ask Kluber for 4+ innings at max effort, then ask for 3 from Miller, and 2 from Allen. If any of those guys falter he will turn to Shaw for 1 inning. If the game goes extras, the Indians are probably screwed.

Well managed teams go in with a plan, and then they follow that plan. You are suggesting managing by what the manager thinks and feels at the time despite what all numbers clearly suggest is the correct strategy. I'm guessing Francona is smarter than that.

 

[smootness]

So Francona doesn't know what Miller and Allen will give him, but he magically knows what Kluber will give him from inning to inning? All pitchers are "cruising" until they suddenly aren't.

Kluber: .275 wOBA allowed. Allen: .255 wOBA allowed. Allen > Kluber.

Kluber is on short rest for the 2nd straight start. Allen is a fully rested BP arm.

A typical starting pitcher’s OPS-against climbs from .705 to .731 to .771 as they turn the lineup over. Allen will face each hitter once.

All that added up and a 4/3/2 split is the correct decision if the goal is to get the best pitchers throwing the most high leverage innings, even if Kluber is "cruising" through 4-5 innings.

You certainly have a better idea of what Kluber will give you for the first better in the 5th after pitching for 4 innings than you do someone who hasn't thrown in a while.

I'm not saying you just leave Kluber in and let him go. I'm saying you take him out at the first sign he's declining. But if he's cruised through 5, it's stupid to then take him out...just like if he's struggling early, it's stupid to leave him in for 5.

If Kluber had been brilliant through 5, then you take him out, and Allen suddenly looks like he's got nothing when you bring him in for the 8th, then you're screwed, and you needlessly wasted potential batters Kluber could have faced.

And again, relievers always throw max effort. Starters don't. It's likely Kluber will be throwing closer to max effort tonight than he typically does.

 

[Enscheff]

Let's put it another way:

Max Pitches: 75

Max Innings: 5

Max Batter Faced: 18

As soon as one of those 3 values is reached, Kluber comes out in favor of Miller/Allen. All available data says that's the most effective usage, and I'm willing to bet that's the strategy the Indians will employ.

 

[Enscheff]

You certainly have a better idea of what Kluber will give you for the first better in the 5th after pitching for 4 innings than you do someone who hasn't thrown in a while.

I'm not saying you just leave Kluber in and let him go. I'm saying you take him out at the first sign he's declining. But if he's cruised through 5, it's stupid to then take him out...just like if he's struggling early, it's stupid to leave him in for 5.

If Kluber had been brilliant through 5, then you take him out, and Allen suddenly looks like he's got nothing when you bring him in for the 8th, then you're screwed, and you needlessly wasted potential batters Kluber could have faced.

And again, relievers always throw max effort. Starters don't. It's likely Kluber will be throwing closer to max effort tonight than he typically does.

If Kluber is brilliant through 5 after throwing max effort on 3 days rest for the 2nd straight start, I think it is without question time to bring in Miller. Kluber on short rest, after going max effort for 5 innings, and after facing the lineup twice is a worse pitcher than a fresh Miller and Allen. Kluber's job is to get the game to Miller and Allen, and he need to pitch 4+ effective innings to do it.

Your whole "if Allen has nothing" suggestion to hold your best pitchers in reserve "just in case" is the exact silly argument Francona has single-handedly disproved, right after the Orioles showed how stupid an idea it is in the postseason.