2016 Postseason Thread

For all the back-and-forth about optimizing lineups and the like, how about all you number guys take into account the fact that each Manager ONLY has 25 players available - regardless of how good they are after pitch 48, etc.?

There's going to be some point where each one has to go with his gut and say "I'd rather roll the dice with Chapman or Miller (or whomever) after they've thrown 35 pitches than use a fresh Rondon, etc..

Maximizing all these numbers will only work if you can substitute at will, and Maddon and Francona don't have that luxury. This is why so many scoutheads keep screaming that you can't manage strictly based on what the numbers tell you - if you're going to "optimize" a player for a short burst, you're also going to have to use a lot of lesser players to get him into that particular situation. I get the line of thinking that each Manager has the luxury of using SPs in pen roles tonight, but that won't be using them optimally either, right? After all, they've not been used that way all year, so what evidence do you have other than "Lester is my best Pitcher, so I'm going to use him instead of a reliever if the game's tight."???

Gut, right?
 
No idea what point you are trying to make. This game is guaranteed, 100%, to go 9 innings. There is a very small chance it goes extras. So who in the world would plan their strategy around the unlikely event of it going more than 9?

Maddon didn't even trust Rondon to pitch in a 7 run game. It is very clear who each team plans to use. The Cubs are going to go Hendricks for 4-5, Lester for 2-3, and Chapman for 2-3, with a small chance of using someone like Edwards for a couple outs to get to Lester. The Indians are going to use Kluber for 4-5, Miller for 2-3, Allen for 1-2, and Shaw for 1 inning is someone falters. If the game goes extras the Cubs have Lackey, which likely means the Indians are screwed.

Whichever team executes their plan wins. The team that doesn't loses. But those are the plans that maximize talent/leverage. No amount of "gut feelings" change any of it.
 
Enscheff said:
If Kluber is brilliant through 5 after throwing max effort on 3 days rest for the 2nd straight start, I think it is without question time to bring in Miller. Kluber on short rest, after going max effort for 5 innings, and after facing the lineup twice is a worse pitcher than a fresh Miller and Allen. Kluber's job is to get the game to Miller and Allen, and he need to pitch 4+ effective innings to do it.

Your whole "if Allen has nothing" suggestion to hold your best pitchers in reserve "just in case" is the exact silly argument Francona has single-handedly disproved, right after the Orioles showed how stupid an idea it is in the postseason.
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I'm not holding my best pitchers in reserve. I'm using my best pitchers. I'm not holding Allen back for the purpose of using him later, I'm holding him back because I have someone better on the mound.

The bottom line is, those numbers are great and very useful, and they tell you quite a bit about what happens over a period of time. They do NOT tell you what will be the optimum strategy on any given night. So you have to play it by ear to some degree. I agree you don't want to throw Manship because your gut tells you he's due for a great outing; that would be dumb. But I disagree that you have to take a pitcher out at some pre-defined point because you feel like he'll start to decline because the numbers tell you he will do so on average over time. This is one game, so you have to use the numbers to inform but ultimately make decisions based on what is actually happening on the field.

Starters tend to decline over the course of a game. But they don't do that on an every-game basis. I'm fine with going in with a general idea of doing something along the lines of what you laid out, I don't think that would be a bad way to go if everything works out that way. I'm just saying you absolutely can not predetermine your moves before the game...because once a player goes out, he can't come back in. You don't get any do-overs.

Also, on the flip side, you have to be willing to use someone besides those 3 if it's clear early Kluber just doesn't have it tonight. It would be just as dumb to continue to pitch him because the numbers tell you he's the best guy you've got if it's obvious that on that night, he's not helping you win.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Wonder what Jack Morris or Smoltz would have said back in 91 to the way Managers manage BP in the playoffs today..
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So managers should just remain dumb or should they progress?

I can see arguments for smoot or encheff. I would say go in planning on Kluber throwing 4-5. Obviously, if he is cruising, don't take him out. But, start getting Miller loose in the 4th/5th and take Kluber out at the first sign of trouble.
 
gilesfan said:
So managers should just remain dumb or should they progress?

I can see arguments for smoot or encheff. I would say go in planning on Kluber throwing 4-5. Obviously, if he is cruising, don't take him out. But, start getting Miller loose in the 4th/5th and take Kluber out at the first sign of trouble.
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did I say anything one way or another.. just wondering what those guys would have said. I think I have gone on record numerous times saying Bobby Cox cost us a few titles by managing the playoffs like it was the regular season.
 
Same question for MadBum.. do you think he would have come out of a game 7 even if he had a guy like Miller behind him? So are there certain pitchers that you just say, he is the best I have and I will ride him for as long as I can? Or is Miller just that dynamic, you have to use him?

/pompous assumptions welcome
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Same question for MadBum.. do you think he would have come out of a game 7 even if he had a guy like Miller behind him? So are there certain pitchers that you just say, he is the best I have and I will ride him for as long as I can? Or is Miller just that dynamic, you have to use him?

/pompous assumptions welcome
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Miller is a better pitcher than Kluber. I think you have to consider using him 2 innings at the very least because he is the best. When to use him is the good question.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Same question for MadBum.. do you think he would have come out of a game 7 even if he had a guy like Miller behind him? So are there certain pitchers that you just say, he is the best I have and I will ride him for as long as I can? Or is Miller just that dynamic, you have to use him?

/pompous assumptions welcome
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I think Miller is that dynamic. But regardless, I don't think it ever helps you to say, I'm leaving this guy in, and whatever happens happens. If a starter is clearly having a special night and is on top of his game, I'm not taking him out. That said, I feel like I have to get Miller into the game because if it's a 1-run game or tied, one swing at any point in time can change the game. So even best case, I'm probably pulling Kluber for the 9th and putting Miller in...or maybe a little earlier if the middle of the lineup comes up in the 8th.

But that's pretty unlikely.
 
You could even make an argument that in a game like this, you have to maximize your best pitchers...meaning the best strategy would be to start your best, then bring in your 2nd best, etc. Which would mean starting Miller and letting him go as long as he can remain effective, then bring in Kluber, etc.

But that's never going to happen.
 
I'm going with the Cubs, but my gut says Indians. One fanbase is breaking a massive streak either way! GO BRAVES!
 
Things are setting up to let Kluber face a few batters in the 5th. He should not face Fowler a 3rd time under any circumstance.
 
He would've been out at plate on tag and catch there vs braves. Inciarte is so much better than Davis
 
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