2016 Presidential Primaries [ SUPER TUESDAY | 3-1-'16]

I dislike Cruz maybe as much as I do Trump, but one silver lining is a candidate won Iowa despite opposition to ethanol subsidies. I'm not sure that has happened before. A small victory against crony capitalism, I guess.
 
acesfull86 said:
I dislike Cruz maybe as much as I do Trump, but one silver lining is a candidate won Iowa despite opposition to ethanol subsidies. I'm not sure that has happened before. A small victory against crony capitalism, I guess.
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That's a good point. I remember seeing a West Wing episode where that happened years ago and thinking "yeah, right."

The cynic in me does ask if his antipathy towards energy subsidies applies equally to fossil fuels.
 
Runnin said:
I can't believe either Cruz or Trump is electable. The only race is between Hillary and Bernie.
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Which isn't a race, Bill will deliver Hillary the south, and Sanders won't win anywhere near enough in the North-east and West to make it tight.
 
Heard an interesting critique of the Iowa Electorate this morning.
Apparently very conservative / Evangelical (R) and over 40% (D) call themselves Socialists.
The Sanders ground game was impressive where they identified college voters realizing their votes only counted if it was cast in their home district. Knowing that they worked to get those students back to their homes to caucus.
What is interesting to me about that is I see the primaries and caucus' not only as a PR job interview but of POTUS skills - how do they use their resources of money and people. What nuance do they find that was never before found.
With that in mind the losers were losers (O'Malley,Bush,Christie,Trump,Huck,Paul etal) for far bigger reasons tan their stands on issues. That I guess is how/why Rubio can call himself a winner for a 3rd place finish. Cruz for obvious reasons . Clinton for being able to hold off Sanders and, Sanders as well for his forward thinking ground game

Remembering the 2012 Rand Paul issues with the vote counts and like I said before, this is the candidates best organizational shot.
Certain every one has seen the past winners in Iowa and how a good showing in Iowa has parlayed into later success only twice in the past 40 years.
That is 10 election cycles
 
acesfull86 said:
Rubio? I mean, I don't agree with a lot if his positions, but I'd at least call him electable. Sooner or later the support for the crazies is going to erode, right? RIGHT?!?
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Not that Rubio is that "sane" he's just the least out there major tea partyer. Well maybe Rand, kind of a cointoss.

BTW I love going to certain politicians lists at ontheissues.org because sometimes they seem bipolar. See Rubio on abortion

Abortion is complex issue; we must reduce the number of them. (Aug 2015)
Barbarians of our age have murdered millions of the unborn. (Aug 2015)
Ban abortion after 20 weeks. (Apr 2015)
Consensus that life begins at conception; so no abortion. (May 2014)
I believe in protecting life but I'm not a chauvinist. (Mar 2013)
Pro-life, but understands that woman's right is the law. (Jun 2012)
 
57Brave said:
With that in mind the losers were losers (O'Malley,Bush,Christie,Trump,Huck,Paul etal) for far bigger reasons tan their stands on issues. That I guess is how Rubio can call himself a winner for a 3rd place finish. Cruz for obvious reasons . Clinton for being able to hold off Sanders and, Sanders as well for his forward thinking ground game
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Rubio was the winner because he basically took all of the institutional votes. The evangelical vote has carried Iowa recently, with Huckabee and Santorum taking Iowa, so Cruz was the likely winner, though Trump seemed to siphon off some of that vote.

How was HIllary a winner? For months she dominated the polls with double digit lead only to end in a virtual tie? It's not as bad as a loss, but only barely. She was embarrassed.
 
Same way Carolina Panthers were winners over the Seahawks.
Plus, I think Sanders needed a win - not a tie.
He is expected to win NH handily after that ... different game
we'll see

To my mind this was Rubio's apex. As good as he gets
Media scrutiny gets amped up starting this morning

Seen his whole career and he is the guy clumsily reaching for the water bottle. Giving up his Senate seat and would get flummoxed in a general election if nominated.

Strategically - long game - his best hope is to go for a VP nod and hope for the next cycle ala John Edwards
 
Iowa is not predictive of nomination. It usually predicts the top evangelical candidate, but they usually wind up 2nd or 3rd overall.

Expect Cruz to finished 3rd or 4th in NH. Huckabee finished a long 3rd way behind mcCain and Romney, Santorum finished a long 4th behind Romney, Paul, and Huntsman.

Last 2 rep noms, the Iowa caucus winner hasn't broken 300 hard delegates. As far as who will be the nomination, it comes down likely to Rubio or Trump. Rubio needs to perform much better in NH than his pollings. As of yesterdays polls, NH has Trump in first with 30+% of the votes, and Rubio, Kasich, Bush, and Cruz all around 10%. If Rubio can siphon off votes from Bush and Kasich he should be able to move into challenging Trump.
 
sturg33 said:
Rubio will get the nomination... and he's pretty much my least favorite of the main guys - other than Trump
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Rubio is not worse than Trump, Carson, or Cruz. Especially Carson. Christie and Paul are the only 2 republicans I'd feel moderately comfortable with. Rubio and Kasich leads the pakc of guys I don't like but don't scare the bejesus out of me. Then there's Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Santorum.
 
acesfull86 said:
Both. Moreso the former, but I'd give him the best shot among R's against HRC in the general.
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Polls would seem to agree. As they have Hillary generally beating Trump and while Cruz is beating Hillary in the Fox News poll ran recently (shocker) Hillary beat Cruz in the NBC News/Wall St. Journal beyond MoE, while she didn't with Rubio. GE polls right now indicate Rubio as the best candidate to beat CLinton or Sanders.
 
Rubio has the lane wide open right now. It's his to lose.

His campaign strategy has been quite sound, but his actual performance has been unimpressive to me. Still comes off like a kid wearing his dad's suit to me.
 
Expect Bush, Kasich and Christie to be pressured by the establishment to drop out if they don't finish top 2 in New Hampshire. All three of them have pinned their hopes there, but they seem to have been thwarted by Rubio's strong performance in Iowa.
 
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