2018 MLB Draft Thread

[CJ9]

Baseball America has us taking Carter Stewart, too:

8. Carter Stewart
Eau Gallie HS RHP
Notes:
Who in the league is more equipped to make a bet on a high-upside prep righthander than the Braves? The team’s track record of developing arms tracks back into the previous century, scouting director Brian Bridges and senior advisor Roy Clark have a tendency to take arms high in the class and first-year Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos was in charge of the Blue Jays when the team took prep righties like Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez and then-high schooler Brady Singer.

If there is a team that is both willing and able to take advantage of one of the strengths of the class it’s the Braves. They have their pick of the class here, though other prep arms, Kelenic, Gorman and McClanahan could make sense. It’s also worth noting that Anthopoulos, Bridges and Clark were at a recent Cole Wilcox-Anthony Seigler playoff matchup, where Seigler went 3-for-4 against Wilcox with a pair of doubles. Both seem rich here currently, but that is a lot of decision-making heat.

 

[Enscheff]

Baseball America has us taking Carter Stewart, too:

8. Carter Stewart
Eau Gallie HS RHP
Notes:
Who in the league is more equipped to make a bet on a high-upside prep righthander than the Braves? The team’s track record of developing arms tracks back into the previous century, scouting director Brian Bridges and senior advisor Roy Clark have a tendency to take arms high in the class and first-year Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos was in charge of the Blue Jays when the team took prep righties like Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez and then-high schooler Brady Singer.

If there is a team that is both willing and able to take advantage of one of the strengths of the class it’s the Braves. They have their pick of the class here, though other prep arms, Kelenic, Gorman and McClanahan could make sense. It’s also worth noting that Anthopoulos, Bridges and Clark were at a recent Cole Wilcox-Anthony Seigler playoff matchup, where Seigler went 3-for-4 against Wilcox with a pair of doubles. Both seem rich here currently, but that is a lot of decision-making heat.

This "pitching factory" blabber is laughably inaccurate, and stuff like this is precisely why BA gets zero dollars from me.

 

[cajunrevenge]

so what teams are pitching factories?

 

[Enscheff]

so what teams are pitching factories?

Giants, Rays, Dodgers, Cards...

https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/5/19/15666890/best-organizations-at-developing-pitchers

The Rays are consistently churning out pitchers and supplying the rest of the league with arms. They actually are the pitching factory folks commonly mistake the Braves to be.

 

[nsacpi]

Their board really drops the high school bats that a lot of other sites think will go in the top ten (Gorman and Kelenic in particular). I know the strategies in the baseball draft don't mirror the approaches in other sports and hence don't center on need, but it sure would be nice if the Braves could find a reliable bat or two in this draft.

the sense I get from the comments made by the scouts on various sites is that the college hitters have moved up at the expense of high school pitchers and hitters. The two college hitters with the best hit tool are Bohm and Madrigal. I'd love to get one of them but it is looking unlikely. If those two are gone I'd go with a pitcher. I think it could be Winn. He's a darkhorse who has been very consistent this spring. Outstanding and consistent.

I hope we do not take a HS pitcher in the second round, but that demographic is strong where we are picking in the first. A college pitcher could be in play too.

 

[TheBravos]

Giants, Rays, Dodgers, Cards...

https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/5/19/15666890/best-organizations-at-developing-pitchers

The Rays are consistently churning out pitchers and supplying the rest of the league with arms. They actually are the pitching factory folks commonly mistake the Braves to be.

With that in mind...our philosophy only changed back a few years ago. I think in three to five years...if you do the same evaluation...these numbers would change in a big way. Eighty percent of our pitching draftees are still in the minors.

Honestly in the big three era...I never took us as pitching first either. Glavine was the only home grown guy. Smoltz was just a lucky trade and Maddox was a A+ signing. We were very even across the board actually. We took Chipper, brought up Andrew...tons of position players. I remember very few high profile pitchers drafted.

To me 2015 was really the first time the Braves took the “pitching first” mantra. Not saying I agree with it, but so far we seem to be coming out ok. There has been luck in that with Albies and Acuna (two low profile signings) on the position side. I guess you have to end up having some luck any way you go in the end to be successful.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

With that in mind...our philosophy only changed back a few years ago. I think in three to five years...if you do the same evaluation...these numbers would change in a big way. Eighty percent of our pitching draftees are still in the minors.

Honestly in the big three era...I never took us as pitching first either. Glavine was the only home grown guy. Smoltz was just a lucky trade and Maddox was a A+ signing. We were very even across the board actually. We took Chipper, brought up Andrew...tons of position players. I remember very few high profile pitchers drafted.

To me 2015 was really the first time the Braves took the “pitching first” mantra. Not saying I agree with it, but so far we seem to be coming out ok. There has been luck in that with Albies and Acuna (two low profile signings) on the position side. I guess you have to end up having some luck any way you go in the end to be successful.

While I don't agree with the "pitching factory" title for the Braves, at least not in recognized results today, the early 90's Braves were probably as close as any franchise could be.

The early to mid 90's Braves produced a ton of ML pitchers with several bringing back awards and at least one HoF (Smoltz was acquired via trade, so he wasn't drafted, but he was put through the Braves finishing school): Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Merker, Tommy Greene, Pete Smith (similar to Smoltz), Stanton, Wolhers, McMichael, Millwood, Schmidt, Rocker, etc....

At some point (I think it likely when they won the WS and Ted began the process of selling to AOL) they completely lost focus as a developmental franchise and became a win now franchise. Some of that resulted from lost draft position due to the winning percentage of the ML team. But, even then they lost effectiveness and activity in the international market and started drifting in focus with the draft. But it was probably inevitable, somewhat the nature of the beast.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I still want to see the Braves go BPA, highest upside type pick. With the sanctions, if the Braves go low ceiling, high floor type guy who is intended to get to the majors fast, it's almost a given that their will be a huge talent vacuum at the minor league level starting about 2020. If they go high ceiling, low floor type guys and they bust then they will have a huge talent vacuum again. However, if they go high ceiling, low floor and at least some of it hits, then they might survive at the minor league level (being able to feed quality to the Majors) until the sanctions are past.

Drafting guys who end up being at or just above replacement level is never a good strategy, but certainly not for the Braves with their ability to hedge bets severely curtailed by MLB for the next couple of years.

So in round 1 I would like to see someone from the group of: Gorman, Stewart, Kelenic (although he is older), Winn, Hankins

Round 2: Groshans, Ginn, Murray, Kloffenstein, White, Gray

 

[msstate7]

I still want to see the Braves go BPA, highest upside type pick. With the sanctions, if the Braves go low ceiling, high floor type guy who is intended to get to the majors fast, it's almost a given that their will be a huge talent vacuum at the minor league level starting about 2020. If they go high ceiling, low floor type guys and they bust then they will have a huge talent vacuum again. However, if they go high ceiling, low floor and at least some of it hits, then they might survive at the minor league level (being able to feed quality to the Majors) until the sanctions are past.

Drafting guys who end up being at or just above replacement level is never a good strategy, but certainly not for the Braves with their ability to hedge bets severely curtailed by MLB for the next couple of years.

So in round 1 I would like to see someone from the group of: Gorman, Stewart, Kelenic (although he is older), Winn, Hankins

Round 2: Groshans, Ginn, Murray, Kloffenstein, White, Gray

Is ginn projected 2nd round? Signed with state, so interested

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Is ginn projected 2nd round? Signed with state, so interested

I think he's in the 25-45 BPA in most prospect rankings. I think it's possible he might still be available when the Braves pick in the 2nd.

 

[TheBravos]

While I don't agree with the "pitching factory" title for the Braves, at least not in recognized results today, the early 90's Braves were probably as close as any franchise could be.

The early to mid 90's Braves produced a ton of ML pitchers with several bringing back awards and at least one HoF (Smoltz was acquired via trade, so he wasn't drafted, but he was put through the Braves finishing school): Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Merker, Tommy Greene, Pete Smith (similar to Smoltz), Stanton, Wolhers, McMichael, Millwood, Schmidt, Rocker, etc....

At some point (I think it likely when they won the WS and Ted began the process of selling to AOL) they completely lost focus as a developmental franchise and became a win now franchise. Some of that resulted from lost draft position due to the winning percentage of the ML team. But, even then they lost effectiveness and activity in the international market and started drifting in focus with the draft. But it was probably inevitable, somewhat the nature of the beast.

Those names came over probably a 15 year period though. We have acquired that many in maybe three years. I can think of NO time in Braves history that this much focus (almost to a fault) was put on just pitching. The jury is still out, but returns seem decent so far.

 

[nsacpi]

This is how I see things going. The top 2 or 3 bats in this draft will be gone when our turn comes up. This will cause us to turn to pitching. I think we will most likely select a HS pitcher (with Liberatore, Stewart and Winn being the most probable). We could go to a college pitcher (and I think McClanahan is the most likely college pitcher at #8). I'm fine with drafting any of those pitchers, but my dream scenario continues to be that Bohm or Madrigal somehow drops to us.

With our second round pick, I'm hoping we go with the HS hitter with the most upside. Could be someone like Freddie Freeman (ex second round pick) with the best hit tool, or someone like Brian McCann (ex second round pick) who plays a premium defensive position. Two of our better recent second round picks (Riley and Waters) have been HS hitters. I hope the front office analyzes the yield by position when picking in the second round and uses that information correctly in populating its draft board. It doesn't mean you exclude anyone based on position, but it does mean that the distribution of the population you are considering reflects your yield by demographic.

 

[nsacpi]

I still want to see the Braves go BPA, highest upside type pick. With the sanctions, if the Braves go low ceiling, high floor type guy who is intended to get to the majors fast, it's almost a given that their will be a huge talent vacuum at the minor league level starting about 2020. If they go high ceiling, low floor type guys and they bust then they will have a huge talent vacuum again. However, if they go high ceiling, low floor and at least some of it hits, then they might survive at the minor league level (being able to feed quality to the Majors) until the sanctions are past.

Drafting guys who end up being at or just above replacement level is never a good strategy, but certainly not for the Braves with their ability to hedge bets severely curtailed by MLB for the next couple of years.

So in round 1 I would like to see someone from the group of: Gorman, Stewart, Kelenic (although he is older), Winn, Hankins

Round 2: Groshans, Ginn, Murray, Kloffenstein, White, Gray

I agree on the high ceiling philosophy with one important caveat. When you are picking in the top 5 and maybe even at #8 this year, the guys under consideration are all very high ceiling. So it is ok to consider floor as well with those picks.

Where considering floor can get you in trouble is if you are picking in the second half of the first round as well as your other high picks (second, third, supplemental rounds). At those points in the draft, you absolutely need to try to max out on ceiling. Some of our worst picks (Gilmartin for example) have been where we go for someone safe at those points in the draft.

 

[50PoundHead]

While I don't agree with the "pitching factory" title for the Braves, at least not in recognized results today, the early 90's Braves were probably as close as any franchise could be.

The early to mid 90's Braves produced a ton of ML pitchers with several bringing back awards and at least one HoF (Smoltz was acquired via trade, so he wasn't drafted, but he was put through the Braves finishing school): Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Merker, Tommy Greene, Pete Smith (similar to Smoltz), Stanton, Wolhers, McMichael, Millwood, Schmidt, Rocker, etc....

At some point (I think it likely when they won the WS and Ted began the process of selling to AOL) they completely lost focus as a developmental franchise and became a win now franchise. Some of that resulted from lost draft position due to the winning percentage of the ML team. But, even then they lost effectiveness and activity in the international market and started drifting in focus with the draft. But it was probably inevitable, somewhat the nature of the beast.

Well said. They seemed to go from developmental drafts to replacement drafts during the latter stages of Schuerholz' tenure. Some of the picks were great (and with very high ceilings), but I think you're right about the drift. More Joey Devines and Sean Gilmartins.

 

[rico43]

Is ginn projected 2nd round? Signed with state, so interested

BTW the Twins and the Chattanooga Lookouts would like to thank State for Brent Rooker, who recently had 12 RBIs in a 10-game homestand, including a walkoff slam and another game-winner. His slow start is officially over.

 

[msstate7]

BTW the Twins and the Chattanooga Lookouts would like to thank State for Brent Rooker, who recently had 12 RBIs in a 10-game homestand, including a walkoff slam and another game-winner. His slow start is officially over.

Glad he's coming along. He was unbelievable at state last season

 

[Orphan Black]

This guy's fastball looks like a screwball

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/5/...18-mlb-draft-targets-ethan-hankins-vanderbilt

 

[clvclv]

While I don't agree with the "pitching factory" title for the Braves, at least not in recognized results today, the early 90's Braves were probably as close as any franchise could be.

The early to mid 90's Braves produced a ton of ML pitchers with several bringing back awards and at least one HoF (Smoltz was acquired via trade, so he wasn't drafted, but he was put through the Braves finishing school): Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Merker, Tommy Greene, Pete Smith (similar to Smoltz), Stanton, Wolhers, McMichael, Millwood, Schmidt, Rocker, etc....

At some point (I think it likely when they won the WS and Ted began the process of selling to AOL) they completely lost focus as a developmental franchise and became a win now franchise. Some of that resulted from lost draft position due to the winning percentage of the ML team. But, even then they lost effectiveness and activity in the international market and started drifting in focus with the draft. But it was probably inevitable, somewhat the nature of the beast.

That also leaves out Wainright - another member of that "factory". Plus you have Charlie Morton who was completely unheralded until recently.

 

[Southcack77]

That also leaves out Wainright - another member of that "factory". Plus you have Charlie Morton who was completely unheralded until recently.

While we are listing, Odalis Perez, Jason Marquis, Bruce Chen.

It’s true that the Braves didn’t manufacture aces (though Wainwright arguably was close) but they showed pretty good ability to consistently come up with decent major league pitching and guys who looked like they could be (all those headliners of deals and expansion drafts that didn’t pan out).

You’d have to compare their numbers to what other orgs produced. My guess it was pretty good results overall. But not an ace factory.

 

[Enscheff]

While we are listing, Odalis Perez, Jason Marquis, Bruce Chen.

It’s true that the Braves didn’t manufacture aces (though Wainwright arguably was close) but they showed pretty good ability to consistently come up with decent major league pitching and guys who looked like they could be (all those headliners of deals and expansion drafts that didn’t pan out).

You’d have to compare their numbers to what other orgs produced. My guess it was pretty good results overall. But not an ace factory.

The article I linked literally compared the pitchers each organization produced.

I also find it more than a little comical that folks consider it a plus when the Braves trade away a pitcher who is then developed into a MLB contributor for another team. That seems like the exact opposite of what they want to do...