2018 MLB Draft Thread

[striker42]

Pretty sure another one tops that list

I actually think Wainwright for Drew was worse than Tex. If we'd gotten the two first rounders when Tex went FA, that trade doesn't look anywhere near as bad. The problem is that Wren traded them with half a season of Tex for Casey Kotchman.

Wainwright should have been our ace.

 

[Enscheff]

I actually think Wainwright for Drew was worse than Tex. If we'd gotten the two first rounders when Tex went FA, that trade doesn't look anywhere near as bad. The problem is that Wren traded them with half a season of Tex for Casey Kotchman.

Wainwright should have been our ace.

It's a bit like the HO trade....bad all by itself but doubly bad when considering the subsequent trades it caused.

Having Wainwright from 2007-2017 certainly would have solved a lot of the rotation problems Wren struggled with during that time.

 

[thewupk]

I actually think Wainwright for Drew was worse than Tex. If we'd gotten the two first rounders when Tex went FA, that trade doesn't look anywhere near as bad. The problem is that Wren traded them with half a season of Tex for Casey Kotchman.

Wainwright should have been our ace.

Both weren't good. I think the Tex trade tops it just due to the large volume of talent that was moved in that trade.

 

[Southcack77]

I actually think Wainwright for Drew was worse than Tex. If we'd gotten the two first rounders when Tex went FA, that trade doesn't look anywhere near as bad. The problem is that Wren traded them with half a season of Tex for Casey Kotchman.

Wainwright should have been our ace.

The exit trade for Tex was much worse than the entry for me as well.

Very little they gave up ended up being a weakness for them.

They traded surplus and probably should have gotten more out of it but in end they bought an awesome player who did everything they wanted.

I think the moar questionable thing was the estimation that they were serious contender. That was laying down a lot to bet on smoltz and Hudson and rain.

 

[thewupk]

Wainwright provided 18.7 in fWAR his pre-FA years

Harrison/Andrus/Salty/Feliz provided 36.4 in fWAR in their pre-FA years.

Even by standards at the time both were overpays but even then you would see a top prospect traded for a rental. The package the Braves gave up for Tex was just an absurdity.

 

[jpx7]

Wainwright provided 18.7 in fWAR his pre-FA years

Harrison/Andrus/Salty/Feliz provided 36.4 in fWAR in their pre-FA years.

Even by standards at the time both were overpays but even then you would see a top prospect traded for a rental. The package the Braves gave up for Tex was just an absurdity.

Meanwhile, Drew had 8.6 fWAR in his lone Braves season, while Teixeira totaled 5.6 across his two partial seasons—pushing the calculus even further in favor of the latter trade being worse.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The real beginning of the end was the Denny Neagle trade. Neagle by himself was good, no question and he was likely worth what he was paid. However, the Braves traded Corey Pointer (Braves 2nd round pick in the 1994 draft, think Demeritte), Ron Wright (7th round 1994 pick who was one of the top 100 players in miLB - think Riley) and Jason Schmidt (8th round pick in 1991 draft, one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball - think Soroka, 31.8 career WAR with highs of 6.7 and 6.8 and 2 top 5 CY finishes) for Neagle. Then they had to resign Neagle which they did which directly or indirectly led to the need to trade David Justice and Marquis Grissom for payroll reasons for Alan Embree and a pending FA in Kenny Lofton, which also required the trade of Jermaine Dye (20.3 War, 1 top 5 MVP) and Jaime Walker for Keith Lockhart and Michael Tucker. Both Schmidt and Dye had about 5 years of team control when traded. March 1997 was a horrible month for the Braves.

After the damage was done and Neagle had worn out his welcome in Atlanta, Tucker, Neagle and Rob Bell were traded to Cincy for Brett Boone and Mike Remlinger.

So, in effort to get Neagle for the stretch run in 1996, a year when they had Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Avery that they were paying (plus spot starters Bielecki and Wade), plus Schmidt (who outpitched Neagle in 1996 after the trade), JS set into motion a number of moves that would cause trouble for years. It's not that Neagle was a bad pitcher. He wasn't. In fact he was very good in 1997 (still no better than the 4th best pitcher on the club) and 1998 (again 4th best) before being traded.

But he was a luxury at a position where they couldn't afford it and they traded away value that haunted them for years. Can you imagine a rotation with Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Millwood and Schmidt and an OF of CF AJ, LF Grissom, RF Justice/Dye?

It was a bad trade that on the surface doesn't look like a bad trade.

 

[nsacpi]

Teams will sometimes convince themselves they are just one piece of the puzzle away. Neagle is an example of this final piece of the puzzle phenomenon. JS had some good deals where he traded prospects for established players. The McGriff trade is an example. But in some ways the McGriff trade was unfortunate because it convinced him this was a sustainable practice.

 

[thewupk]

Teams will sometimes convince themselves they are just one piece of the puzzle away. Neagle is an example of this final piece of the puzzle phenomenon. JS had some good deals where he traded prospects for established players. The McGriff trade is an example. But in some ways the McGriff trade was unfortunate because it convinced him this was a sustainable practice.

JS did the same thing in KC as well. This time instead of bouncing to another org he just got promoted.

 

[CJ9]

New Pipeline mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-college-players-get-picked-early/c-278228058

"8. Braves: Nolan Gorman, 3B, O'Connor HS (Phoenix)

Atlanta is associated with mostly high schoolers. The Braves appear to prefer Gorman -- the best power hitter in the Draft, but also a bit of a polarizing prospect who might slide into the mid-teens if he doesn't go here -- to Kelenic. The prep pitchers also will be in play, starting with Weathers."

So we're connected to Gorman, who might follow to the mid-teens if we don't take him, or Ryan Weathers, who falls to 17 in this mock. That's pretty underwhelming.

 

[thewupk]

New Pipeline mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-college-players-get-picked-early/c-278228058

"8. Braves: Nolan Gorman, 3B, O'Connor HS (Phoenix)

Atlanta is associated with mostly high schoolers. The Braves appear to prefer Gorman -- the best power hitter in the Draft, but also a bit of a polarizing prospect who might slide into the mid-teens if he doesn't go here -- to Kelenic. The prep pitchers also will be in play, starting with Weathers."

So we're connected to Gorman, who might follow to the mid-teens if we don't take him, or Ryan Weathers, who falls to 17 in this mock. That's pretty underwhelming.

#BravesWay

 

[Tapate50]

Jeez not this again. It’s the top two or three guys and a bunch of interchangeable pieces after. Hell three months ago Gorman was a lock for top 5 and now we got bitching we’d take him at 8? Plus he’s a position player, so for some of you I’d assume that gets you hot and bothered

There is obviously not a clear picture of who is actually a better prospect at this point with this draft. Trust the guys seeing them in person, as they really have earned our trust at this point.

 

[smootness]

New Pipeline mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-college-players-get-picked-early/c-278228058

"8. Braves: Nolan Gorman, 3B, O'Connor HS (Phoenix)

Atlanta is associated with mostly high schoolers. The Braves appear to prefer Gorman -- the best power hitter in the Draft, but also a bit of a polarizing prospect who might slide into the mid-teens if he doesn't go here -- to Kelenic. The prep pitchers also will be in play, starting with Weathers."

So we're connected to Gorman, who might follow to the mid-teens if we don't take him, or Ryan Weathers, who falls to 17 in this mock. That's pretty underwhelming.

You can't trade these picks, so you have to just take who you like. There's really no such thing as a 'reach' in the MLB draft unless you clearly pass over better talent (which doesn't seem to be the case here) or take someone who will almost certainly be there with your next pick.

Money and team preference matters too much here to think it means much of anything for a player to be projected ~15 and go 8.

 

[nsacpi]

You can't trade these picks, so you have to just take who you like. There's really no such thing as a 'reach' in the MLB draft unless you clearly pass over better talent (which doesn't seem to be the case here) or take someone who will almost certainly be there with your next pick.

Money and team preference matters too much here to think it means much of anything for a player to be projected ~15 and go 8.

Gorman has a certain amount of hit and miss in his swing that represents a significant risk for a high school prospect. Chasing after the power is one of the more common mistakes teams make in the first round. Power is very difficult to project. It translates in a wide variety of ways as prospects move into the pros and up various levels of the minors and then majors. The hit tool (as opposed to the power tool) is much more predictable as players move up various levels. I would rather take a Gorman-type player in the second round. We did a few years ago with Riley. Picking at #8 in the first round, we can get a player with both a high ceiling and high floor. Guys like Stewart and Liberatore look to be especially good picks at that point in the draft.

 

[CJ9]

You can't trade these picks, so you have to just take who you like. There's really no such thing as a 'reach' in the MLB draft unless you clearly pass over better talent (which doesn't seem to be the case here) or take someone who will almost certainly be there with your next pick.

Money and team preference matters too much here to think it means much of anything for a player to be projected ~15 and go 8.

Well aware of how this works, just don't like us being tied to a player who isn't making enough contact against HS arms or a pitcher who is described as lacking a true out pitch with the #8 pick of the draft.

 

[nsacpi]

Well aware of how this works, just don't like us being tied to a player who isn't making enough contact against HS arms or a pitcher who is described as lacking a true out pitch with the #8 pick of the draft.

Your concerns are not misplaced. But the mock drafts tend not to be very good at predicting what the Braves actually do.

 

[Southcack77]

Teams will sometimes convince themselves they are just one piece of the puzzle away. Neagle is an example of this final piece of the puzzle phenomenon. JS had some good deals where he traded prospects for established players. The McGriff trade is an example. But in some ways the McGriff trade was unfortunate because it convinced him this was a sustainable practice.

I don't regret the Neagle trade or the Justice trade.

But I think and though the Dye trade was dumb at the time and more so now with hindsight. Never understood why they thought it was better to roll with Michael Tucker than hang on to a high ceiling, cheap player.

all things considered, I don't mind contenders maximizing their chances of winning another world series. It's not a natural state to continue winning indefinitely. At some point, you double down and live with the consequences.

The Braves would go on to sustain playoff teams for a good long while after these, though their window was closed. I have more issue with their not having taken a pause and regrouping during those years than anything else.

But its the natural order of things for teams to age and fall back.

 

[Southcack77]

JS did the same thing in KC as well. This time instead of bouncing to another org he just got promoted.

The Braves went on to win 9 more division titles after trading Jason Schmidt.

the dislike of JS is probably the most unreasonable thing that I see around here beyond the love for Johan Camargo.

the Braves were not in a terrible spot when he left. Whether there was pressure on Wren to make dumb moves is a matter of conjecture. he says so after the fact, but he could have made less dumb decisions. the same pressure was on JS and he made it work long after he was dealing from a stacked deck.

 

[Southcack77]

For the record, Schmidt was just ok for the Pirates. He didn't really take off until he got to San Francisco several years down the line. Not sure how many of those seasons the Braves would have gotten if they'd kept him.

 

[nsacpi]

Some high school hitters I have interest in taking with our second round pick: Nick Schnell (OF), Jordan Groshans (3B), Anthony Seigler (C), Xavier Edwards (SS), Jeremiah Jackson (SS), Jordyn Adams (OF), Will Banfield (C), Mike Siani (OF), Alek Thomas (OF).

About half these guys will be gone by the time our pick rolls around, but if we go HS bat with our second pick we should have some good options.