2018 Offseason And Targets

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zbhargrove said:
He hasn't? In 2017 he was a 3 WAR pitcher and last year he was the same pitcher when not at Yankee stadium...
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Just as thewupk asked - if Gray's a 3 win Pitcher, why isn't Porcello (who also doesn't come with as many health questions)?

Nobody's raking you over the coals here - just pointing out that we have SEVERAL Pitchers capable of putting up the numbers Gray has...hard to see a reason to give up similar value and more control for a guy you'd have for one season (at a substantially higher salary).

Those kinds of trades are exactly what the analytic-minded crowd screamed about not doing forever. Gray would be "just another guy" in the Braves' current rotation - if you want that, just re-sign Anibal and keep the prospects.

What makes Gray a better option as a bounceback candidate than Bumgarner? There's little doubt which one was the better Pitcher if you're looking at what they were 2-3 years ago. If Bumgarner's a bad gamble, so is Gray.
 
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zbhargrove said:
Keep ignoring the fact that one of those years was because of injury and one was obviously influenced by his home stadium when his velocity was still in the mid 90s and his away stats/peripherals/rates were completely in line with/better than his good seasons. I'm sure that's just a coincidence.
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As opposed to your fantasy world where results don't matter and a can claim a pitcher is a 3 WAR pitcher even when he clearly hasn't been.
 
DirkPiggler said:
The point is not to compare Gray to those other pitchers, but to compare him to how well our internal options would perform.

If Gray is the best we can do in the trade market, I'd just as soon roll with some of the youngsters with upside and see how they do. If we can get Gray in a deal that is nearly revenue neutral and doesn't deplete prospect capital that could go towards filling more pressing needs, I'm fine with it. But I don't see the Yankees accepting such an offer.
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You have this pretty much nailed.

Adding an impact arm like Paxton made sense because he represented a huge upgrade.

Adding an average or slightly better arm like Gray makes less sense because the Braves have a bunch of those already.

If Gray can be had for next to nothing, or packaged with Frazier in a deal that makes sense, sure...add him. But this idea that Gray is some sort of "front line starter" that will lead the Braves to a title is absurd.

Of course, this calculus changes if the Braves trade several pitchers for someone like JTR or Haniger. If trades cause a hole in the opening day rotation to suddenly open up, a pitcher like Gray ends up making a lot more sense than he does now. In fact, simply using Newk in a trade means Gray makes a lot of sense.
 
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clvclv said:
An interesting question concerning that...

Aren't all these metrics there to help you keep from paying 3 win value for someone who hasn't been a 3 win player in years?

Whatever the reason, Gray hasn't performed at that level in quite some time. Sure he's a buy-low candidate who may bounce back a bit. Thing is, we've already got Gausman, Newcomb, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Fried, and Wright who have just as much chance of being that 3 win Pitcher as Gray does.

Unless trading for Gray somehow gets you Frazier WITHOUT overpaying for either, I'll pass personally. As many have said several times, there's not much reason to go out and get what you already have - if Gray was a legit TOR option things might be different, but he's not. Given his health history, I see very little reason to gamble that he'll get through 2019 more healthy or perform better than Soroka or several others.
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This was a well thought out, intelligent, and correct statement.

Did hell freeze over?
 
zbhargrove said:
He hasn't? In 2017 he was a 3 WAR pitcher and last year he was the same pitcher when not at Yankee stadium...

Lol and the health thing again... one year
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You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

He absolutely was not a 3 WAR pitcher in 2017. Was he on pace? Sure. But the missed time is absolutely relevant. He hasn't thrown over 160 innings in 3 years. But we're supposed to believe it's likely that he:

A. Will rebound from a poor performance
B. Remain healthy for near 200 innings?


Give me a break with that weak sauce.
 
The challenge is not to trade a young pitcher who could become a Wainwright for another mediocre pitcher. I am only in on adding a starter if he’s a legit number one. Otherwise, I’m good.
 
Carp said:
You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

He absolutely was not a 3 WAR pitcher in 2017. Was he on pace? Sure. But the missed time is absolutely relevant. He hasn't thrown over 160 innings in 3 years. But we're supposed to believe it's likely that he:

A. Will rebound from a poor performance
B. Remain healthy for near 200 innings?


Give me a break with that weak sauce.
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If 2.8 doesn't mean Gray is a 3 WAR pitcher then Porcello isn't either which you attributed to him so right back at you
 
clvclv said:
An interesting question concerning that...

Aren't all these metrics there to help you keep from paying 3 win value for someone who hasn't been a 3 win player in years?

Whatever the reason, Gray hasn't performed at that level in quite some time. Sure he's a buy-low candidate who may bounce back a bit. Thing is, we've already got Gausman, Newcomb, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Fried, and Wright who have just as much chance of being that 3 win Pitcher as Gray does.

Unless trading for Gray somehow gets you Frazier WITHOUT overpaying for either, I'll pass personally. As many have said several times, there's not much reason to go out and get what you already have - if Gray was a legit TOR option things might be different, but he's not. Given his health history, I see very little reason to gamble that he'll get through 2019 more healthy or perform better than Soroka or several others.
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Sure I would only want Gray as a buy low option. But I would peg him higher than most on that list you provided.

A lot of things can change though. If we can move Newk/Julio for the right deal or a group of our young pitchers for an OF upgrade then more depth at SP is preferred. So there are scenarios where getting Gray makes sense. Thinking he is the missing piece to lead the rotation is not one of them. I do think he is better than his overall numbers in 2018 .
 
zbhargrove said:
If 2.8 doesn't mean Gray is a 3 WAR pitcher then Porcello isn't either which you attributed to him so right back at you
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And I mentioned in another post (a post you quoted even) that I referenced bWAR for that, where Porcello was valued at 3.3 WAR.
 
If we could unload Teheran on someone then Gray makes a lot of sense. I think Gray gives you at least what Teheran does with more upside. But no matter what, I don't want to see a rotation with an experienced starter as our number 5. There needs to be an open tryout for that spot with Touki, Fried, Gohara, Wright, Soroka, and maybe others with chance to grab it. I just don't want to waste innings there on a rental like Gray that could be used to develop a stud who will probably produce similar to Gray.
 
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