2018 Offseason And Targets

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Carp said:
I'm not lambasting them for not taking the Braves imaginary package. The point I'm making is that you should never fall in love with particular prospects. That's how you get burned in trades (like the M's in the Paxton). If the Braves have the best package, whether you're "in love" with the prospects or not, you should take the best package.
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I've never said the Marlins should reject the "best package" offered to them.

they clearly should take the package they like the best regardless of who is offering it.

in my hypo, they don't believe in Riley and Newcomb as they would be entirely reasonable in not believing. Especially since many Braves fans don't believe in them, which is why they are willing to trade them.

I find it unlikely that the market for Realmuto is so limited that the Marlins would not have a comparable offer to Newcomb and Riley on the table.

I doubt that their market for trading him is all that much smaller now than it was ten days ago.
 
If the Marlins want to get maximum value for Realmuto, they need to trade him this offseason and they need to trade him before all the other competitive teams fill up at catcher.
 
Carp said:
Cano is overpaid, but he's legitimately still a good player. We'll see if the steroids were a big factor or not, but I think 3+ WAR isn't out of the question.

Ramos, Cano, Familia, and Diaz is a pretty good off-season and they may not be done.
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The steroids were pretty clearly a factor... if you look at the timing of his one good year in his last 3 or 4 and compare it with the timing of the suspension... I mean come on

Familia isn't an addition, and Ramos is nice but any team can sign free agents
 
Southcack77 said:
I'd hit the brakes on Jeter and the Marlins front office being morons.

It's a special situation in Miami and the financial imperative often overrides baseball.

we have not seen what they end up netting out of Realmuto and we don't know what anyone has offered. If you don't love Riley as a prospect then there is nothing special about the rumored Braves package. There is plenty of reason not to love Riley.
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I wouldn't... their returns on Yelich and Ozuna tell me all I need to know
 
Carp said:
Your argument makes no sense. You say he wasn't regarded that highly at the time (not really true) but also that he hasn't done anything in his career that makes the trade that bad (also untrue). It seems like you just want to be a contrarian.

You also fail to mention that Snydergaard wasn't even the main piece of the trade, as Travis d'Arnaud was the main piece of the deal.
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My criticism of the trade would be that they paid a Cy Young like price for a knuckleballer coming off a career year.

I'd say that was a bigger misstep than being willing to trade the prospects.

There is risk inherent any time you make a deal. there is no way to eliminate that if you are going to aim high. You could limit your exposure by making inconsequential moves but you are also limiting the chance you hit big.

It doesn't really interest me that AA gave up a prospects and that one of them turned out to be Syndegard (or that the headliner turned out to be someone whom tendering an offer in arbitration wasn't a non-brainer).

I'm more concerned about the target of the trade.
 
Nerfherders said:
I'm not really getting the love for Realmuto. He was the best catcher offensively last year, but nobody would've said that last offseason. Catching is down as a position, and honestly Realmuto isn't that great offensively. (Good, not great). If it was a choice between him and an OF, give me the OF because there's more offense there.
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I'm sorry he is a great offensive catcher and last off season the same thing would have been said... that's a dumb thing to say
 
Carp said:
Your argument makes no sense. You say he wasn't regarded that highly at the time (not really true) but also that he hasn't done anything in his career that makes the trade that bad (also untrue). It seems like you just want to be a contrarian.

You also fail to mention that Snydergaard wasn't even the main piece of the trade, as Travis d'Arnaud was the main piece of the deal.
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I "said" what the experts said...

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-100-prospects-for-2012/

He was the 4th ranked Pitcher in Toronto's system at the time (Touki or Gohara on our current list).

Those aren't my rankings.
 
I also think if we get JTR then AA's plan is to carry 3 catchers. Flowers and Mac can alternate giving Freddie a day off at first once a week since FF complained about being gassed at end of season. Even JTR can give FF a rest too. Camargo if he's not traded will be valuable pretty much playing CoF, 3B, SS, 2B, maybe even 1B.
 
clvclv said:
At what point did I say Syndergaard "wasn't worth trading for"? You guys continue to look at these things in a vaccuum and act like the only players involved were the two of them.

AA was making a win-now push and had just traded for Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and John Buck. Dickey was coming off a Cy Young season where he struck out 25% of the hitters he faced while walking less than 6%. They also got Josh Thole, who was Dickey's personal Catcher. Syndergaard didn't even make the top half of FanGraphs' Top 100 prospects lists at that time, and couldn't throw a breaking ball for strikes. He was #64 - behind future "Aces" Justin Nicolino, Drew Hutchison, Daniel Norris (all 3 ranked ahead of him in Toronto's system), Taylor Jungmann, Tyrell Jenkins, Daniel Corcino, Trevor May, A. J. Cole, Drew Pomeranz, Manny Banuelos, Mike Montgomery, Randall Delgado, Zach Lee, Martin Perez, Matt Harvey, Arodys Vizcaino, Jarrod Parker, Danny Hultzen, Jacob Turner, Zack Wheeler, Archie Bradley, Tyler Skaggs, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Bauer, Gerritt Cole, Dylan Bundy, Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller, and Matt Moore. He was Folty when the Braves traded for him. Apparently AA wasn't the only person who missed when projecting him, and that probably has a lot to do with why he's been gun-shy about trading from this group of arms.

There's no doubt the Jays (and AA) "lost" the deal, but the teams both had completely different motivations - AA was making a push at the time and needed a frontline SP (which Dickey was at that point), and he got one with two years left on a manageable contract. The Mutts had no farm system and were looking to build one. They gave up a quality major league asset for a RAW young arm and pretty well thought of Catcher prospect (d'Arnaud).

Syndergaard was the equivalent of an Anderson/Touki/Gohara type at that point. The fact that he worked out is what bit the Jays in the *ss - just like the fact that Folty looks like he's going to work out makes the Astros front office at the time he was traded look "dumb". Those things happen when you make win-now trades. Chances are, if AA gives up Riley and Anderson/Touki/Gohara for two years of Realmuto he'll regret that too because at least one of them will reach their ceiling. The Mutts got two Top 100 prospects (neither in the Top 30) - #64 and #37 - for Dickey and a backup Catcher who could handle the knuckler (which is usually pretty tough to find as well).
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Um, sorry to bring logic into this discussion, but the trade for Dickey was terrible by AA.

He traded away the best catching prospect in the game plus a young lottery ticket arm for a 38 year old pitcher under control for 1 more season. They then pulled off the rare “trade and extend” move that everyone clamors for as if those extra years of control at market rates are valuable, and bought seasons into Dickey’s 40s.

The Jays paid the price for a controllable TOR pitcher and got an old knuckleballer they had to extend for market rates.

It was a horrible deal. There was nothing redeemable about it. It was Dave Stewart level bad.
 
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Southcack77 said:
My criticism of the trade would be that they paid a Cy Young like price for a knuckleballer coming off a career year.

I'd say that was a bigger misstep than being willing to trade the prospects.

There is risk inherent any time you make a deal. there is no way to eliminate that if you are going to aim high. You could limit your exposure by making inconsequential moves but you are also limiting the chance you hit big.

It doesn't really interest me that AA gave up a prospects and that one of them turned out to be Syndegard (or that the headliner turned out to be someone whom tendering an offer in arbitration wasn't a non-brainer).

I'm more concerned about the target of the trade.
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Absolutely.
 
clvclv said:
I "said" what the experts said...

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-100-prospects-for-2012/

He was the 4th ranked Pitcher in Toronto's system at the time (Touki or Gohara on our current list).

Those aren't my rankings.
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And that would be relevant if the trade happened in the off season before 2012. But it happened in the 2012-2013 off-season when Snydergaard was ranked 54th by BA, 29th by MLB.com, and 28th by Baseball Prospectus.
 
Carp said:
And that would be relevant if the trade happened in the off season before 2012. But it happened in the 2012-2013 off-season when Snydergaard was ranked 54th by BA, 29th by MLB.com, and 28th by Baseball Prospectus.
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Yup. And fangraphs had him at 46 for the 2013 season. Jay's traded the 11th and 46th prospect for Dickey. Horrible then and even worse now.
 
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