2018 Offseason And Targets

[Enscheff]

Pache and Wilson for Peralta and Bradley.

Another brilliant trade idea to store in the archives lol.

 

[Enscheff]

I’m not spinning anything. The point is that people are panicking because we didn’t sign Brantley and Camargo for one year until Pache is ready is just not that bad of a move. We would need to pick up another player for the bench but should be cheaper than the Brantley deal. I’m just having conversation, not spinning. If it were up to me, I would sign Harper and be done with it.

If Pache ends up in a cOF spot something went terribly wrong.

 

[Braves1976]

What about Domingo Santana? That guy was the loser in the musical chairs that was the Brewer's regular lineup. He wasn't good last year, but he hardly had a chance to get going. He's relatively young, had a great 2017, and the Brewers still have a glut of outfielders.

i mentioned him yesterday as possible and quoted mlbtr on thames too.

 

[Freshmaker]

Grains of salt and whatnot, but per Bowman:

Remaining funds
Although the Braves have not publicly indicated their projected 2019 payroll, they have said it will increase to the point they will no longer be in MLB's bottom third. Even after signing Josh Donaldson ($23 million) and Brian McCann ($2 million) to one-year deals, it's believed they still have at least $30 million left to spend.

When Braves chairman Terry McGuirk recently responded to Donaldson's signing by saying the team has the financial means to make another similar short-term investment, he glowingly spoke about general manager Alex Anthopoulos' long-term focus and desire to budget funds. This budgetary practice could lead Anthopoulos to allocate up to $10 million of his remaining funds toward moves that could be made to upgrade the roster during the 2019 season.

 

[Southcack77]

Because with Camargo on our bench we have an above average bench and depth, plus he provides us an opportunity to use him for exploiting platoon matchups. With him in the outfield we go back to having a horrific bench for a playoff caliber team.

Only assuming they do nothing to address the bench from here, which would seem unlikely if that is the course they chose to pursue.

 

[Enscheff]

we don't have the money for this....right??

If we did, and after what happened to the Angels with Pujols- just one example- I wouldn't do it for any reason. Whoever does is dead meat in a few years--BUT if we did, I'd move Dansby and whatever they wanted for Haniger - literally whatever they wanted- and sign Machado. Then dump everything left on Kluber. Go win the WS a couple of times and suck for a decade.

Good thing I am not GM.

Correct, because you just created a $160M payroll in 2019 which is beyond what anyone projects it to possibly be.

 

[Braves1976]

The reason I mentioned Thames rather than Santana is because Santana's right-handed. He doesn't really fit if you keep Duvall and/or are looking to get Camargo OF ABs against lefties.

Santana's numbers vs righties are better than Thames, not every righty hits lefties best. Some like Santana have reverse splits and kill righties. Santana had a .301 avg, .359 obp and .816 ops last year vs righties but only hit .172 vs lefties with a .572 ops.

 

[Enscheff]

Grains of salt and whatnot, but per Bowman:

"at least $30 million left to spend" puts the opening day payroll at $137M+.

Last year the opening day payroll was ~$110M, depending on how buyouts and bonuses were counted.

Last year the final 40 man roster payroll ended up being ~$130M, so I have no doubt the final 40 man roster payroll for 2019 will be closer to $140M.

I have serious doubts the Braves are going to have an opening day payroll of ~$140M, and I would take any bet from anyone on the under.

 

[Southcack77]

At this point the only avenue for acquiring a 3 win cOF is via trade. Puig if the Dodgers get Harper. Haniger if AA coughs up the prospects. Peralta if he’s platooned a bit. Frazier as a young player with upside.

All options that could present good value once the FA market shakes out a bit more.

I still say Gray/Frazier for Gohara seems like the most likely specific trade scenario, followed closely by CarGo as a specific FA scenario. If the Dodgers sign Harper I’ll take Puig as the most likely scenario.

Cargo:

vs LH 77 wRC+
vs RH 104 wRC+

Home 118 wRC+
Away 79 wRC+

Away vs LH 39 wRC+
Away vs RH 74 wRC+

(interesting that his total away splits somehow exceed either of his LH/RH away splits - how does that happen?)


I know AA tried Bautista last season, but surely Cargo would at best be bench depth at this point?

 

[Southcack77]

I’m not spinning anything. The point is that people are panicking because we didn’t sign Brantley and Camargo for one year until Pache is ready is just not that bad of a move. We would need to pick up another player for the bench but should be cheaper than the Brantley deal. I’m just having conversation, not spinning. If it were up to me, I would sign Harper and be done with it.

I don't see how Camargo gets to the 400-500 PA people are projecting for him without getting a couple of starts a week in the OF.

 

[Enscheff]

Cargo:

vs LH 77 wRC+
vs RH 104 wRC+

Home 118 wRC+
Away 79 wRC+

Away vs LH 39 wRC+
Away vs RH 74 wRC+

(interesting that his total away splits somehow exceed either of his LH/RH away splits - how does that happen?)


I know AA tried Bautista last season, but surely Cargo would at best be bench depth at this point?

I'd like to think so, but Cargo was mentioned early by Bowman, and he doesn't come up with this stuff on his own. Someone told him Cargo on a 1 year deal was a fallback option, and we are at the point where fallback options are becoming more and more likely.

A great off season would be Haniger at good value and Cargo for the bench for ~$5M, but I fear it will be Cargo getting 400 PAs and then the Braves are looking to trade for a cOF at the deadline...again.

 

[MadduxFanII]

I don't know how Bowman is in such bad shape with all the water he's carrying.

 

[Southcack77]

If you assume neutral LF defense for Camargo and project Brantley and Camargo to repeat last season's offense, then Brantley probably adds 1 win.

But if you look at Brantley's drop from 151 to 133 to 124 wRC (throwing out his weaker outliers) then you clearly see the age regression.

On the other hand Camargo has gone from 100 to 115 wRC+ in his two major league seasons. He showed substantial progress, doubling his walk rate, making big stride in ISO, without showing any red flags of unsustainabity in the peripherals. He's moving career highs and he's doing more than his minor league credentials suggested he could, but if you accept that he's just a better player than people thought it looks reasonable.

Of course, I say all that being someone who is not particularly a Camargo believer. Is another 15% increase in offense likely with all the position moves going on? I doubt it. Could he struggle to repeat last season? Very well might.

 

[zbhargrove]

I think the Rangers have been underdiscussed as trade partners. I would HATE a trade for Mazara, but I could totally see something like that happening. But if we swung a deal for Gallo, I could get behind that.

I wasn't excited about Gallo at first, but looking closer at his stats and his age... there's actually quite alot to get excited about if he could even reduce his k rate by 5%

 

[Southcack77]

I'd like to think so, but Cargo was mentioned early by Bowman, and he doesn't come up with this stuff on his own. Someone told him Cargo on a 1 year deal was a fallback option, and we are at the point where fallback options are becoming more and more likely.

A great off season would be Haniger at good value and Cargo for the bench for ~$5M, but I fear it will be Cargo getting 400 PAs and then the Braves are looking to trade for a cOF at the deadline...again.

I think he (Bowman) does come up with some of that stuff on his own.

Remember, he's the one that said the Braves were not interested in making any infield moves.

Just lumping Cargo in the same pile as Brantley, McCutcheon, Pollock seems like something one of the Braves lazy beat writers would do. They're all veteran OF right?

I just can't see the front office considering this to be anything like equivalent. We know they look at analytics.

 

[zbhargrove]

we don't have the money for this....right??

If we did, and after what happened to the Angels with Pujols- just one example- I wouldn't do it for any reason. Whoever does is dead meat in a few years--BUT if we did, I'd move Dansby and whatever they wanted for Haniger - literally whatever they wanted- and sign Machado. Then dump everything left on Kluber. Go win the WS a couple of times and suck for a decade.

Good thing I am not GM.

Pujols was 32... Harper is 26...

 

[Enscheff]

I don't see how Camargo gets to the 400-500 PA people are projecting for him without getting a couple of starts a week in the OF.

Assuming he starts at 3B ~30 times, that's about 120 PAs.

2-3 starts at SS per month is another 50-75 PAs.

2-3 starts at 2B per month is another 50-76 PAs.

10 games at AL parks where he will play due to the DH is another 40 PAs.

That's 60-75 starts leading to 260 PAs, and as the primary option off the bench he can expect 75-100 PAs as a PH, bringing the total to 335-360...so I'd estimate ~350 PAs.

I don't think its reasonable to project Camargo for anywhere near 500 PAs unless someone gets seriously injured...which would really suck because that injury is most likely to be the $23M man.

 

[Enscheff]

I think he (Bowman) does come up with some of that stuff on his own.

Remember, he's the one that said the Braves were not interested in making any infield moves.

Just lumping Cargo in the same pile as Brantley, McCutcheon, Pollock seems like something one of the Braves lazy beat writers would do. They're all veteran OF right?

I just can't see the front office considering this to be anything like equivalent. We know they look at analytics.

I'm referring more to the spin the FO has Bowman put on these guys more so than what the FO actually thinks. The whole Mish/Bowman nonsense proves beyond all doubt that Bowman serves as nothing more than the Braves media mouthpiece. I would go so far as to suggest they do everything just short of writing the articles for him.

If Bowman establishes that CarGo = Brantley (or nearly equals), then it's great news when the Braves sign CarGo at $5M for 1 year after Brantley got 6x that much over 2 years.

I can guarantee you that will be the line Bowman writes if/when that deal happens.

 

[clvclv]

i mentioned him yesterday as possible and quoted mlbtr on thames too.

Missed that - my bad.

 

[Southcack77]

I'm referring more to the spin the FO has Bowman put on these guys more so than what the FO actually thinks. The whole Mish/Bowman nonsense proves beyond all doubt that Bowman serves as nothing more than the Braves media mouthpiece. I would go so far as to suggest they do everything just short of writing the articles for him.

If Bowman establishes that CarGo = Brantley (or nearly equals), then it's great news when the Braves sign CarGo at $5M for 1 year after Brantley got 6x that much over 2 years.

I can guarantee you that will be the line Bowman writes if/when that deal happens.

I think even DOB would have trouble putting that forward, but I would buy it from Bowman.