2018 Offseason And Targets

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Horsehide Harry said:
First: Kiley.

Second: there's a difference in short term, limited opportunity and a sustained (5-7 year window of success). If everything goes right could the Braves win a WS in 2019? Sure. Is it likely? No. If most things go right could they win the Division in 2019? Sure. Is it likely? Not at this point - even if they fill a cOF spot with a 5 win guy, where does that leave them -87 wins? Is that good enough? probably not.

But let's assume 2019 is successful in some form. Does Acuna go to a 8 Win guy for 2020? Probably not. But even if he does, that gets negated somewhat by Freeman regressing from 5 to 3, while eating payroll space.

I'm all for keeping Freeman IF the Braves will spend the cash to bring in what needs to be brought in to fill the gaps that arise year to year along with the ebb and flow of young talent coming, going, growing and declining. They aren't doing that with payroll which narrows the margin so much that any kind of sustained era of excellence seems unlikely to me.
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What?
 
Enscheff said:
I have lamented the fact that there isn't an option in the OF between the ~$50M market of flawed OFers like Cutch/Brantley/Pollock and the $350M Harper option. This makes it very hard (impossible) for the Braves to address cOF with a solid FA in the $100M-$150M price range right now.

Looking at the 2019-2020 FA class may shed some light on why the Braves are favoring these 1 year deals:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html

Several appropriately aged FAs at cOF and 3B will be available next offseason:

Arenado (29)
Rendon (30)
Puig (29)
Ozuna (29)

These are all excellent mid-tier options for a team like the Braves to chase with 5+ year deals, and the future availability of these guys is likely why they aren't committing to a flawed player right now. I could see the Braves being in on all these players, and possibly even more than one of them.
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I can't see Arenado. If he gets less AAV than Machado people need their heads checked. I don't see a 10 year deal for him but probably 6 at 30+. Do you think the Braves have a 6/180 contract in them? I don't.

Rendon will get less than Arenado but not a huge amount less, maybe 5/140. Still don't see it.

Puig and Ozuna maybe but Puig probably gets 4/$80M and Ozuna gets 5/$125M. That's a lot of cash. Let's say you get Ozuna at 5/$125M and let Donaldson walk. If you get 4 WAR out of Donaldson (which is a lot IMO) then Ozuna coming and Donaldson going is probably a wash for 2020 which leave the improvement to come from 3B. If that is Riley becoming a 3-4 WIN 3B, then maybe you get by. Otherwise...because FF likely goes from 5 to 4, then 3 in 2021. It's moving pieces and IMO you either have to have an overwhelming amount of young talent with payroll room to fill holes, allowing you to hold on to the majority of the young talent and use as needed OR you need plenty of payroll to fix mistakes and problems along the way. The Braves clearly aren't the second. It's unlikely they are the first, not because of a lack of talent (although I will say they are too pitching oriented) but lack of payroll space to fill in around the young talent as needed.
 
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Enscheff said:
I really don't understand how anyone can draw this conclusion. Of all the teams in MLB, the Braves are widely considered one of the teams most set up for long term (5+ years) success.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-who-will-win-the-next-five-world-series/

This "half-assed approach" already got the Braves an NL East title. This "half-assed approach" has the Braves projected to win 82 games in 2019, and they haven't addressed CoF at all. This "half-assed approach" has the Braves set up with almost zero long term payroll commitments and a young core everyone fully expects to get better and better.

There are very few plausible scenarios where a team at the very beginning of a window of contention can trade away a 4-5 win player and still be competitive in the near future.

Freeman will play out his contract as a Brave, and unless he signs a series of short extensions, will be allowed to walk following the 2021 season. They may consider trading him as a rental in 2021 if they are out of the race, but I find that scenario fairly unlikely.
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You posi-braves are unbearable
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Where do you see the Braves record? 90 wins again? 95? 85?

Where do you see the improvement Y/Y right now? Keep in mind that the Nats, Mets and Phillies have all made or are making significant moves.
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Offseason isnt close to over, too early to predict a win/loss projection right now.

Braves may not make a ton of moves and can still improve since the roster is so young and alot of players can get better.
 
damn it... The Nationals have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent righty Anibal Sanchez, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Sanchez will receive a two-year contract worth $19MM guaranteed, per Fenech, and he can increase his earnings via incentives. Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.
 
Braves1976 said:
damn it... The Nationals have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent righty Anibal Sanchez, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Sanchez will receive a two-year contract worth $19MM guaranteed, per Fenech, and he can increase his earnings via incentives. Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.
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Thats a little too much imo, but good for him.
 
Enscheff said:
I really don't understand how anyone can draw this conclusion. Of all the teams in MLB, the Braves are widely considered one of the teams most set up for long term (5+ years) success.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-who-will-win-the-next-five-world-series/

This "half-assed approach" already got the Braves an NL East title. This "half-assed approach" has the Braves projected to win 82 games in 2019, and they haven't addressed CoF at all. This "half-assed approach" has the Braves set up with almost zero long term payroll commitments and a young core everyone fully expects to get better and better.

There are very few plausible scenarios where a team at the very beginning of a window of contention can trade away a 4-5 win player and still be competitive in the near future.

Freeman will play out his contract as a Brave, and unless he signs a series of short extensions, will be allowed to walk following the 2021 season. They may consider trading him as a rental in 2021 if they are out of the race, but I find that scenario fairly unlikely.
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I am starting to agree with you more and more. My only disagreement is that Freeman isn't the "highest bidder type" and will be an Atlanta Brave for his entire career if it's left up to him unless for some reason the FO decides they don't want him anymore.
 
Anyway we can start a new thread or start a new thread whenever there is a new signing? Scrolling through over 4K pages to get people’s perspective on things is tiresome.
 
Good for Anibal. I'm not surprised he got that kind of contract. He probably would have taken less to remain a Brave.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I can't see Arenado. If he gets less AAV than Machado people need their heads checked. I don't see a 10 year deal for him but probably 6 at 30+. Do you think the Braves have a 6/180 contract in them? I don't.

Rendon will get less than Arenado but not a huge amount less, maybe 5/140. Still don't see it.

Puig and Ozuna maybe but Puig probably gets 4/$80M and Ozuna gets 5/$125M. That's a lot of cash. Let's say you get Ozuna at 5/$125M and let Donaldson walk. If you get 4 WAR out of Donaldson (which is a lot IMO) then Ozuna coming and Donaldson going is probably a wash for 2020 which leave the improvement to come from 3B. If that is Riley becoming a 3-4 WIN 3B, then maybe you get by. Otherwise...because FF likely goes from 5 to 4, then 3 in 2021. It's moving pieces and IMO you either have to have an overwhelming amount of young talent with payroll room to fill holes, allowing you to hold on to the majority of the young talent and use as needed OR you need plenty of payroll to fix mistakes and problems along the way. The Braves clearly aren't the second. It's unlikely they are the first, not because of a lack of talent (although I will say they are too pitching oriented) but lack of payroll space to fill in around the young talent as needed.
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So you think a guy that will be entering his age 29 season and has a career OPS under .800 away from Coors Field will/should garner an AAV higher than Manny Machado? Color me skeptical on that front.
 
Ozzie's Chainz said:
I am starting to agree with you more and more. My only disagreement is that Freeman isn't the "highest bidder type" and will be an Atlanta Brave for his entire career if it's left up to him unless for some reason the FO decides they don't want him anymore.
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If Freeman follows a standard aging curve, it might be foolish for us to bring him back after 2021 unless we can bring him in at a significant discount and/or bring him back on short term deals. He is likely to start his decline by then and it would be easier to acquire someone with approximate production than it would be if he played a more premium position.

Maybe we can get him to extend until 2022 or 2023, but beyond that I don't want to guarantee him anything.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Where do you see the Braves record? 90 wins again? 95? 85?

Where do you see the improvement Y/Y right now? Keep in mind that the Nats, Mets and Phillies have all made or are making significant moves.
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The Phillies and Mets both have a lot of ground to make up to catch Atlanta. And despite all these moves the Braves still have added the player projected to have the biggest impact in Donaldson.
 
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