UNCBlue012
Well-known member
The Padres are so stupid it hurts me
2018 Offseason And Targets
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
- Status
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Well thankfully we don't have to watch him to see how valuable his skill set is... we clearly see it in the statistic
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Do you know how much complaining there would be on this board during the season if we had Gallo? The constant strikeouts, especially in big spots, would drive most of this board insane.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Makes sense for the Indians though. They can pick up a couple of the Padres' young cost-controlled outfielders, exactly what they need.
In some ways, the Indians are in competition with us for outfielders. If they can fill those needs without getting one of the corner outfielders that we have interest in that would be a good thing from our perspective.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
I still don't get how some people on this board are okay with a guy that will post 200k's a season...the argument being that a strike out is no different than any other out...
When you put the ball in play, good things happen more often than not...
Besides, his strike out rate probably goes up having to face pitchers like Scherzer, Nola, Strasburg, Corbin, Syndergaard, DeGrom, etc.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
There isn't a lot of statistical evidence to suggest that an expected fly out or a ground out is a far superior outcome to a strikeout. Aaron Judge struck out 208 times in 2017 and almost won MVP. Strikeouts are perfectly acceptable if you have other tools to make up for them. I think a ~.300 ISO qualifies.
And if Gallo has even a little further development left in his hit tool and could manage to hit ~.240ish and keep the same OBP and SLUG rates, he'd basically be a star.
And for all of those people suggesting that our team was all about "moving the line" or "getting on base a lot", consider the fact that we had 5 different players that had an OBP of .332 or lower over the course of 300+ at bats. We had several players who got on base at a similar or worse rate than Gallo and didn't come close to providing his power production. The whole strikeout argument or rally killer argument is pretty archaic thinking when you're talking about a guy who is consistently hitting 40 homers a year while playing reasonable defense.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
The real tragedy of a Gallo acquisition would be that the dear departed TallahasseeBravo wouldn't be here to burn the board down in response.
This is completely false.
The chances of a grounder turning in to a double play makes them about as valuable as a K, and sometimes less valuable. Fly balls have such a low probablity of becoming hits they aren't much more valuable than Ks.
Folks can argue all they want from a position of ignorance that Ks are terrible, but the fact of the matter is they are no more negative than any other out over the course of a season.
I never really considered Gallo as an option because I didn't realize he was go good defensively in the OF (I ignorantly assumed he was terrible). He has above average sprint speed that he uses to be average in the OF as far as tracking down FBs, and FG has him as a positive defender over ~1000 innings in the OF the last 2 seasons.
My issue with him and his 3.5 WAR projection is the .277 BABIP they have projected for him in 2019. I haven't put him into my projection system, but his career .256 BABIP over 1200 PAs suggests he may not regress to .277. He hits a lot of FBs, and pulls the ball a lot (probably into a shift)...a recipe for a low BABIP.
If his BABIP doesn't jump to the .275-.280 range required to get that .225/.334/.507 slash line, he is probably going to lose 20 points off his BA/OBP and post something close to his career .203/.317/.498 slash line. That's still nearly a 3 win player, but not quite the guy FG projects him to be. He likely fits pretty well behind the better overall hitters currently on the roster.
Gallo is a feasible target, but I would hesitate to project his BABIP as optimistically as FG does.
Last edited:
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Gallo appears to be the new Adam Dunn (with better defense). If one is okay with that, no problem.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
This is pretty much where I am as well. I do think that Gallo still may have a small amount of upside left in his hit tool, given that he just turned 25. Perhaps with a new organization he can make a little more quality contact and get his BABIP up to around where FG projects. I don't have any evidence to back that up, but I don't think its outside the realm of possibility. Even if he doesn't I'd love to have his bat and defense in the lineup as it is.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
A guy that hits for power the way he does tends to have a big upper cut to help get a higher launch angle. A fly ball can turn into a sac fly or the defense can make an error on a ground ball. That doesn’t happen when you strike out.
With Gallo I see him striking out too much ending a rally with a runner on 2nd or 3rd.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Not really.
Southcack77
Well-known member
There is no world where it makes sense to dismiss 60% of his season to embrace the last two months as the true representative sample.
You play games to protect your biases.
All the numbers count. Not just the ones that fit your frame.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Gallo is negative DRS so he’s not an above average defender.
He doesn’t walk enough to be an obp man.
So it’s basically average defense and home runs.
Defense has only one direction to go.
Another example of a flawed player that is not necessarily available that people want to think somehow will be acquired for very little.
Undesirable acquisition. Going to spend capital get a better player.
Last edited:
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Sure they all count, but when you have a 3-4 month sample against a 3 and a half year sample, I think its fair to question whether or not that should represent an outlier. Given Markakis' age and track record, I think that is the correct conclusion.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Judge gets on base at a 40% clip and k’s significantly less.
Not remotely the same thing.
Not remotely the same thing.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Dunn’s k rate was about 25% in his early to late prime years and his obp was in the .380 range.
Much better hitter than gallo.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Gallo has had a positive UZR/150 at all three of the outfield positions. He is probably a 50 grade glove with a 70 grade arm in the outfield. He is below average in the infield. He also has a 13.4% BB rate, so he walks a lot. We know for a fact that players can carry plenty of value while striking out a lot and hitting for lower averages if they fit a certain profile. Gallo is a 3 win player, he just gets there in a different way than the other 3 win players that have somehow been deemed "desirable"... The only thing that keeps people from viewing Gallo in a similar light is the same old archaic style of thinking about the game.
- Status