2018 Offseason And Targets

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Just shooting the breeze with this one.

Whit Merrifield just put up a career year at 29. The Royals aren't winning anything any time soon.

He's versatile and could easily man either OF spot, along with 2B, 3B, 1B, and maybe even short in an emergency.

I don't think you would have to value him at 5 wins to get him and perhaps you could offset his prospect cost by taking on Alex Gordon's last guarantee year (24m with option buyout). Maybe sending a Teheran or O'Day back to them.

I'm not sure what that package looks like and I'm not sure how much Whit actually moves the needle for the team. But he's definitely versatile and pretty good and has some skill sets that the Braves don't necessarily have now. So even if he ages into a utility man, he would have use off the bench.
 
Southcack77 said:
Just shooting the breeze with this one.

Whit Merrifield just put up a career year at 29. The Royals aren't winning anything any time soon.

He's versatile and could easily man either OF spot, along with 2B, 3B, 1B, and maybe even short in an emergency.

I don't think you would have to value him at 5 wins to get him and perhaps you could offset his prospect cost by taking on Alex Gordon's last guarantee year (24m with option buyout). Maybe sending a Teheran or O'Day back to them.

I'm not sure what that package looks like and I'm not sure how much Whit actually moves the needle for the team. But he's definitely versatile and pretty good and has some skill sets that the Braves don't necessarily have now. So even if he ages into a utility man, he would have use off the bench.
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Taking the idea a little further, we could make him the starting second baseman and move Ozzie to short. Trade Swanson.

Another player we could do this with is Scooter Gennett. Older than Merrifield but more pop. Only one year from free agency but that works to hold down his acquisition cost. Plus Gennett is a lefty hitter whereas Merrifield is a righty.

Part of my thought process here is that Ozzie would be a good defensive SS (not sure if I'm right about this because we haven't seen him there in the majors). Maybe not quite as good as Swanson but you maximize his value by moving him to the more demanding position and bring in a better hitter to play second.

Reds are rebuilding so they probably would prefer someone like Swanson with multiple years of control left. They then move Peraza to second. I wouldn't trade Swanson one for one for Gennett. The Reds would have to kick in more.
 
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Southcack77 said:
Just shooting the breeze with this one.

Whit Merrifield just put up a career year at 29. The Royals aren't winning anything any time soon.

He's versatile and could easily man either OF spot, along with 2B, 3B, 1B, and maybe even short in an emergency.

I don't think you would have to value him at 5 wins to get him and perhaps you could offset his prospect cost by taking on Alex Gordon's last guarantee year (24m with option buyout). Maybe sending a Teheran or O'Day back to them.

I'm not sure what that package looks like and I'm not sure how much Whit actually moves the needle for the team. But he's definitely versatile and pretty good and has some skill sets that the Braves don't necessarily have now. So even if he ages into a utility man, he would have use off the bench.
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I could live with a Gordon/Duvall platoon for one season IF we upgraded at C or 3B.
 
nsacpi said:
Taking the idea a little further, we could make him the starting second baseman and move Ozzie to short. Trade Swanson.

Another player we could do this with is Scooter Gennett. Older than Merrifield but more pop. Only one year from free agency but that works to hold down his acquisition cost. Plus Gennett is a lefty hitter whereas Merrifield is a righty.

Part of my thought process here is that Ozzie would be a good defensive SS (not sure if I'm right about this because we haven't seen him there in the majors). Maybe not quite as good as Swanson but you maximize his value by moving him to the more demanding position and bring in a better hitter to play second.

Reds are rebuilding so they probably would prefer someone like Swanson with multiple years of control left. They then move Peraza to second. I wouldn't trade Swanson one for one for Gennett. The Reds would have to kick in more.
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the reluctance of the Braves to play Albies at SS under most any circumstance the last couple of years makes me wonder about what they think about his SS defense, but maybe they just didn't want to give him anything else to think about. I agree that if he can play the position at an above average defensively clip that it might make sense to move Swanson.

I have a little bit of heart burn that Swanson will age into a Brandon Crawford level of offense to go with very good defense, but I think that is the very worst you are risking.
 
MLBTR just released their projected arb salaries for 2019:

Kevin Gausman – $9.2MM
Mike Foltynewicz – $5.5MM
Arodys Vizcaino – $4.8MM
Adam Duvall – $3.1MM
Dan Winkler – $1.6MM
Jonny Venters – $1.5MM
Sam Freeman – $1.5MM
Charlie Culberson – $1.4MM
Jose A. Ramirez – $700K
Jacob Lindgren – $600K

Duvall jumps out as the most likely significant NT candidate. Ramirez and Lindgren are probably also NT candidates.

Everyone else is either good enough or cheap enough that they are arguably worth keeping around.
 
seanyates said:
I could live with a Gordon/Duvall platoon for one season IF we upgraded at C or 3B.
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Gordon also natural fit for Markakis's position on the council of elders. And taking him on rolls some dollars forward to next offseason, which could be an ok thing.

I consider this to be a treading water plan that might redistribute some assets more efficiently.

The Duvall/Gordon platoon would make me giggle a little bit for board reaction.
 
If you are a team with a known payroll like the Yanks (somewhere around $200M) or the Rays (somewhere around $75M) then you know which off season aisle to get in. If you are a team like the Braves where you have one foot in each aisle, it's harder. I think the Braves will shop FA and trades with trades being dependent on what other teams do.

As an example, take the D'backs, their payroll jumped by $40M trying to contend this year. They lose Brad Ziegler, AJ Pollock, Pat Corbin, probably Shelby Miller, Eduardo Escobar, Bucholtz etc. They have possible internal pitching fixes (return of Walker, Duplantier, etc) but losing Pollock will hurt and they don't really have a replacement. They don't have much of a farm at all. They probably need to cut payroll but likely still want to give it a shot at contending which they won't/can't really do. They are a classic purgatory club right now.

They should rebuild while they can and have assets that would bring good returns. But, will they? If they do, I'm sure they would want to rid themselves of Greinke's contract, which I think they would have a hard time doing. Would the Braves be willing/able to take on Greinke (34.5/35/35M) if they get Peralta ($7.7 proj arb) or Lamb ($4.7M Pro arb) at a reduced price? What if they took Avila ($4.25M) back as well? How would a deal like that weigh against what the Braves could do by signing FA?

The easy thing for the Braves to do, given unlimited money, would be to sign Harper to play RF, Grandal for catcher, Corbin for the staff and somebody like Ottavino for the RP. But, you're looking at probably $35 + $20 + $20 + $8 = $83M added to the payroll short term which is probably not workable short term even discounting the long term ramifications. Still, that would be the way to go, if you could, since it doesn't cost any prospect capital.

I think the way it will go will be unknown until we get a better read on what other clubs will do.
 
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I could see AA trying to set the market instead of letting the market set itself. Whatever deals he missed out on at the deadline he has probably already revisited and knows what it’ll take to make them happen. A trade for Realmuto and signing Pollock puts up in pretty good shape to take the division again and to go deeper into the playoffs. I’d still go after Asdrubal for a utility role and another bullpen arm like Octavio. So Realmuto and Pollock would be my 2 big offensive targets and both are very realistic.
 
4:36 What sort of deal do you see Brantley getting? more than 3/36M?
Steve Adams
4:39 Less just because of the injury history. I like him at two years and a larger AAV, though I admit that may be underselling him. He's such a good hitter, but he barely played from 2016-17. I suppose Jay Bruce got $39MM, and Brantley is a much better hitter than him. It'll just depend on a team's tolerance for risk -- Brantley is among the riskiest bats out there. I certainly wouldn't be shocked if he got something like 3/39 or even 3/45

I still think Brantley is a pretty good Plan B for AA to consider...the 2019 version of the Markakis contract.
 
One way to think about these ideas is how they reallocate wins over time.

Grandal for 5 years helps the team the first couple years of the deal at the expense of the back two.

Taking on the deadweight of Gordon's salary hurts the 2019 team and presumably helps beyond since we still have Merrifield.

If we trade for Merrifield without taking on Gordon's salary it helps the team in 2019 but presumably there is a cost born later from the prospects we give up.

It seems to me pretty clear we should avoid either extreme: putting a bunch of our chips toward making 2019 team really good or effectively punting in 2019 by taking on useless veterans on big salaries (though we managed to make the playoffs that way in 2018 i don't think we want to try to do it again).
 
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4:40 Does 5/85 sound about right for AJ Pollock?
Steve Adams
4:41 Heading into the season, I'd have said yeah, but more injuries and only a so-so year at the dish with an uptick in K's has me a little less optimistic. Still think he pulls in four years at a nice rate -- $15-18MM or so.

I see Pollock as the FA Plan A for the OF, all depending on where the bidding for him ends up. He is aging as a CF typically ages, and should still be good defensively as a cOF.

I still don't see any obvious trade candidates yet, but the teams who plan on rebuilding haven't made that fact known yet.
 
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Enscheff said:
4:40 Does 5/85 sound about right for AJ Pollock?
Steve Adams
4:41 Heading into the season, I'd have said yeah, but more injuries and only a so-so year at the dish with an uptick in K's has me a little less optimistic. Still think he pulls in four years at a nice rate -- $15-18MM or so.

I see Pollock as the FA Plan A for the OF, all depending on where the bidding for him ends up.

I still don't see any obvious trade candidates yet, but the teams who plan on rebuilding haven't made that fact known yet.
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Of all the teams with outfielders we might have an interest in, we match up best with the Twins whether or not they plan on rebuilding. They will take starting pitchers. There are two details that we need to find out from them. Are they more interested in major league pitchers or prospects. We can help them with either. The other question is willingness to part with Rosario. The may view him as a cornerstone. And we might have better options than Kepler. Like any trade the buyer and seller have to agree on the details.
 
3:54 Harper signs 10/370 with opt outs after 3, 5, and 7
Steve Adams
3:55 Possible, I suppose, since we don't really know where teams are going to top out in what they're comfortable paying. That'd be a record, obviously. I'm still forecasting more than that for both Harper and Machado, though, in terms of both years and total guarantee.

The daily "inject reality into the discussion" post. The Braves barely have enough free cash next year to pay either of those guys $40M on a front loaded deal (to entice them to opt out), much less fill all the other holes on the roster after doing so.

Harper and Machado ain't happening. Period.
 
nsacpi said:
Of all the teams with outfielders we might have an interest in, we match up best with the Twins whether or not they plan on rebuilding. They will take starting pitchers. There are two details that we need to find out from them. Are they more interested in major league pitchers or prospects. We can help them with either. The other question is willingness to part with Rosario. The may view him as a cornerstone. And we might have better options than Kepler. Like any trade the buyer and seller have to agree on the details.
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I haven't seen anything that suggests the Twins are looking to rebuild, nor have I seen anything that suggests they are interested in trading away their 3 win OFer who is just now entering arbitration for the first time.
 
Enscheff said:
I haven't seen anything that suggests the Twins are looking to rebuild, nor have I seen anything that suggests they are interested in trading away their 3 win OFer who is just now entering arbitration for the first time.
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they do need pitching...but agree they are far more likely to offer Kepler than Rosario
 
nsacpi said:
they do need pitching...but agree they are far more likely to offer Kepler than Rosario
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Teams tying to contend and need pitching rarely trade away their cost controlled 3 win OFers to acquire it.

Think I'd start looking for other potential options.
 
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