2018 Offseason And Targets

[BeanieAntics]

Going to have to take a risk somewhere.

I was thinking in the car ride this morning that Braves fans are somewhat unnaturally inclined now to believe that long sustained runs of greatness are the reasonable expectation and I think for a team like Atlanta what the team has gone through in the last decade is probably more the norm. Good times and bad times. Ups and downs ever with teams with talent. Braves don't have the cash right now to fill in the holes when they come up every season.

So I question somewhat any strategy that is depending on hoarding prospects to have a long sustained run. Particularly those that want to hoard prospects who play the same position and have the same timeline.

They need to put chips in the middle to maximize this run. I think they can probably do some things that give them some flexibility to stay in it longer and to re-tool in a few years, but can't let that outweigh putting a contender on the field.

I think there is a difference in crossing your fingers and hoping that a magical 10 year competitive window will present itself and being able to see a path for a 5-6 year competitive window and planning around that. Our competitive window should last as long as Acuna is here and that is how we should approach our teambuilding. And talking about all the holes that pop up every season... The Braves really aren't gonna have that many holes popping up over the next few years. Let's assume that we trade for Peralta (2 years) and sign Grandal (3 years). The next person in our starting lineup who would be eligible for free agency would be Peralta in two years. Then we'd lose Freddie and Grandal in 3 years. Ender and Dansby in 4. The rest of our lineup is controlled for 5 or more years. That is a remarkable lack of turnover in 5 years for a starting lineup and its one of the reasons why we should try to create a sustained competitive window while Acuna is here. Another reason is our pitching. We have Gausman for two more years, Folty for 3 more years, and then a TON of pitchers who are still pre-Arb, some of whom are likely to be pretty darn good moving forward. None of this mentions the fact that we still have one of the top 3 farm systems in the game.

We've constructed a team that should have sustained success for at least 5-6 years. I don't believe we should mortgage that to have a 1 or 2 year run at a WS. Once you make the playoffs, I don't believe any team ever has better than a 25% chance of winning the world series. Baseball is a parity driven game. The name of the game should be to make the playoffs as often as possible, occasionally making the move you need that gets you to that 25% mark. That move should usually come at the trade deadline and I'd never make a move that would obviously sacrifice our competitive window for one year. So if I had the choice between a 2 year window where we have a 25% chance at a WS when we make the playoffs each year or a 6 year competitive window where we have a 15% chance, give me the 6 year window all day.

 

[striker42]

deGrom would cost a fortune in prospect capital. he's not a perfect fit at all.
brantley is clearly better than markakis.

Brantley has a higher ceiling than Markakis for sure. In terms of overall worth, it's not so clear. First, Brantley is a much, much bigger injury risk than Markakis. Over the last 6 seasons, Markakis has averaged 158.5 games played. Brantley has averaged just 95.25 games played over the last 4 years. The injury risk is huge.

Also, Brantley is almost unplayable against lefties. We'd almost have to play him in a platoon. Markakis is playable every day.

I'm not saying I want Markakis back or that Markakis is way better than Brantley. I'm just saying Brantley isn't really that much of a better option than Markakis and will probably require a longer contract to sign.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Again, a .320 OBP vs lefties isnt good but getting on base about 1 out of 3 at bats vs lefties is not almost unplayable. He doesnt hit for power vs lefties, big whoop. Doesnt make him unplayable, especially since his main job will be to get on base for Acuna and Freeman.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Brantley has a higher ceiling than Markakis for sure. In terms of overall worth, it's not so clear. First, Brantley is a much, much bigger injury risk than Markakis. Over the last 6 seasons, Markakis has averaged 158.5 games played. Brantley has averaged just 95.25 games played over the last 4 years. The injury risk is huge.

Also, Brantley is almost unplayable against lefties. We'd almost have to play him in a platoon. Markakis is playable every day.

I'm not saying I want Markakis back or that Markakis is way better than Brantley. I'm just saying Brantley isn't really that much of a better option than Markakis and will probably require a longer contract to sign.

Markakis has stayed healthy for 5 seasons and has accumulated 8.5 bWAR over that time. Brantley has played half the time and has accumulated 9 WAR... In 4 seasons. If you go back to both player's last 5 seasons it is Brantley 15.7 to 8.5. In 2017 he only played in 90 games, but was still more valuable than any season Nick had with Atlanta except 2018. I think Brantley is pretty clearly the more desirable player, even with the injury risk baked in.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Again, a .320 OBP vs lefties isnt good but getting on base about 1 out of 3 at bats vs lefties is not almost unplayable. He doesnt hit for power vs lefties, big whoop. Doesnt make him unplayable, especially since his main job will be to get on base for Acuna and Freeman.

Yeah this whole "unplayable" narrative is kinda of weird considering how strong some of our platoon splits were last year. Brantley had a .684 OPS against lefties last year... A platoon would be desirable for him, but I wouldn't call that unplayable at all.

 

[Super]

Yeah this whole "unplayable" narrative is kinda of weird considering how strong some of our platoon splits were last year. Brantley had a .684 OPS against lefties last year... A platoon would be desirable for him, but I wouldn't call that unplayable at all.

yeah, he floats right around the mid-80s wRC+ vs lefties. not terrible. but probably don't want him and inciarte in the lineup together vs lefties.
i still think kipnis is a good buy-low candidate

 

[BeanieAntics]

yeah, he floats right around the mid-80s wRC+ vs lefties. not terrible. but probably don't want him and inciarte in the lineup together vs lefties.
i still think kipnis is a good buy-low candidate

Well, if we had numerous guys who struggled against lefties then I'd be inclined to agree. But if you look at the rest of our current lineup its filled with guys who have the opposite problem. So I actually think Brantley would balance things out a bit.

That being said, I'm still really reluctant on a Brantley signing for whatever reason. I'd rather swing a trade for someone younger and/or with more power from the left side.

 

[Southcack77]

Markakis has stayed healthy for 5 seasons and has accumulated 8.5 bWAR over that time. Brantley has played half the time and has accumulated 9 WAR... In 4 seasons. If you go back to both player's last 5 seasons it is Brantley 15.7 to 8.5. In 2017 he only played in 90 games, but was still more valuable than any season Nick had with Atlanta except 2018. I think Brantley is pretty clearly the more desirable player, even with the injury risk baked in.

Yes. Brantley can reasonably be expected to produce Markakis's season from last year or exceed it.

You can't really expect Markakis to do that.

 

[striker42]

Markakis has stayed healthy for 5 seasons and has accumulated 8.5 bWAR over that time. Brantley has played half the time and has accumulated 9 WAR... In 4 seasons. If you go back to both player's last 5 seasons it is Brantley 15.7 to 8.5. In 2017 he only played in 90 games, but was still more valuable than any season Nick had with Atlanta except 2018. I think Brantley is pretty clearly the more desirable player, even with the injury risk baked in.

I probably put more weight on Brantley's injury risk.

Ultimately I'm not terribly invested in this debate as I think we're arguing over margins and I honestly hope we do better than either Brantley or Markakis.

My personal hope is that AA does something no one sees coming that adds a serious bat to the outfield and not someone we hope keeps the spot warm.

 

[zbhargrove]

I probably put more weight on Brantley's injury risk.

Ultimately I'm not terribly invested in this debate as I think we're arguing over margins and I honestly hope we do better than either Brantley or Markakis.

My personal hope is that AA does something no one sees coming that adds a serious bat to the outfield and not someone we hope keeps the spot warm.

The Brantley often injured line is also a bit tired... he missed a ton of time because of one serious injury and stuff related to it. He proved he's finally 100% this past year. I don't know if people really concerned about his injury potential really have looked at his actual injury history.

He's really quite a bit better than Markakis and I'm not sure it's even close.

 

[Tapate50]

In my mind, a Brantley signing would need to be followed by another OF signing at some point where that player could fill in admirably if major time is missed, or platoon. Does that make a Brantley signing more or less likely or appealing?

he'd have to be fairly affordable IMO.

 

[BeanieAntics]

In my mind, a Brantley signing would need to be followed by another OF signing at some point where that player could fill in admirably if major time is missed, or platoon. Does that make a Brantley signing more or less likely or appealing?

he'd have to be fairly affordable IMO.

This is one reason why I think a switch hitting (or non-split heavy) utility player would be a desirable addition this year. You can help the infield's platoon problems while buying insurance against injury. I have a feeling, though, that instead we are gonna go after a left handed infield option to simply help the first problem. That is fine too, but I'd have to hope that Duvall is able to turn his game around

 

[Heyward]

FA news. All the QO guys but Ryu declined.

Kinda figured Ryu would accept.

 

[Heyward]

Kluber's on a great contract, if it was Ender and prospects, i'd highly consider it. But who replaces Ender?

 

[Hudson2]

Now that Grandal has turned it down he can officially negotiate with other teams right? I figure that’s why we haven’t heard much on Realmuto yet bc teams are wanting to see what it’ll take to sign Grandal before trading prospects.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Kluber's on a great contract, if it was Ender and prospects, i'd highly consider it. But who replaces Ender?

Well in that case, Acuna would move over to CF. You would then go after someone like Brantley to lead off and play LF. That still leaves C and RF open. Probably go re-sign Neck and Zuk.

Brantley LF
Neck RF
Acuna CF
Freeman 1B
Camargo 3B
Suzuki C
Albies 2B
Swanson SS

Kluber
Folty
Newk
Gausman
Teheran/Freid/Gohara/Soroka/Wilson

 

[Heyward]

Well in that case, Acuna would move over to CF. You would then go after someone like Brantley to lead off and play LF. That still leaves C and RF open. Probably go re-sign Neck and Zuk.

Brantley LF
Neck RF
Acuna CF
Freeman 1B
Camargo 3B
Suzuki C
Albies 2B
Swanson SS

Kluber
Folty
Newk
Gausman
Teheran/Freid/Gohara/Soroka/Wilson

I wouldnt be against Neck but rather go younger there.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

I wouldnt be against Neck but rather go younger there.

Agreed. Just trying to stay a little more realistic on expectations if we were to bring in Kluber. We'd have to save money for the bench as well

 

[Enscheff]

Brantley has a higher ceiling than Markakis for sure. In terms of overall worth, it's not so clear. First, Brantley is a much, much bigger injury risk than Markakis. Over the last 6 seasons, Markakis has averaged 158.5 games played. Brantley has averaged just 95.25 games played over the last 4 years. The injury risk is huge.

Also, Brantley is almost unplayable against lefties. We'd almost have to play him in a platoon. Markakis is playable every day.

I'm not saying I want Markakis back or that Markakis is way better than Brantley. I'm just saying Brantley isn't really that much of a better option than Markakis and will probably require a longer contract to sign.

Did you really just take an average per season of games played as if Brantley’s one injury didn’t span more than 1 season?

 

[striker42]

Did you really just take an average per season of games played as if Brantley’s one injury didn’t span more than 1 season?

Brantley hasn't had just one injury. A shoulder injury ruined his 2016 season and ultimately he had surgery in August of 2016. An ankle injury caused him to miss almost two months of 2017. That ultimately required surgery as well.

If it was one catastrophic injury like an ACL tear, it wouldn't be as much of a concern. A surgically repaired shoulder followed by a sprained ankle so bad it required surgery to secure ligaments all within a few years for a guy who is now over 30 is a legitimate concern.