2018 Offseason And Targets

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I want someone to come up with one recent instance where a team spending massive resources to acquire a top in the rotation starter has worked out well for the acquiring team For the duration of the contract
 
clvclv said:
I don't really have that big a problem with that type of package for Realmuto. Steep? Sure, but rightfully so. The thing is, if you're going to deal ready/almost ready prospects near the top of our list, you can't go halfway. Trading for Realmuto screams that you're in win-now mode, or that you're going to do what it takes to re-sign him in 2 years IMO. That kind of move takes you back where the Braves were when JS made the Tex deal and didn't follow through.

If AA thinks he's got enough pieces in place to make a serious run that he's willing to overpay for Realmuto, he also needs to add that TOR arm that JS never did. If he wants to go for it all in 2019 and 2020, it's time to also call the Indians and Mariners about Kluber/Carrasco/Paxton - even though that's not the best use of resources analytically. If you're making your move now, trade from the arms that are ready - Touki/Soroka/Fried/Gohara, and hold onto the ones that are farther away to replenish with (particularly Anderson).

Does it shorten the window? Probably, but adding Realmuto and the MOST expensive of those arms (Kluber) adds $20 million to the 2019 payroll. If you're committing to Camargo as your 3B, you've still got $20 million to spend on Brantley/McCutchen and a pen piece. If you cut Duvall and Freeman loose, you could afford to add one of those OFs and Allen/Soria/Herrera/Miller. Do whatever you have to do to keep Pache out of either of the trades, and roll the dice that he's going to keep coming fast - he could play defensively now, hope another half season of ABs gets his bat ready and he becomes your 4th OF/injury replacement after the break. That leaves you...

Ozzie, Acuna, Freeman, Realmuto, Brantley/McCutchen, Camargo, Ender, Dansby

Kluber/Carrasco/Paxton, Folty, Newk, Gausman, Julio

Allen/Soria/Herrera/Miller, Viz, Minter, O'Day, Venters, Winkler, Biddle, Sobotka

Flowers, Culberson, Tucker/Adams, cheap OF (maybe you could bring back Duvall on the cheap) until after the break when you hope Pache's ready


Again, it wouldn't be ideal as far as some are concerned, but if you could hold onto Pache, Anderson and another arm or two, and Contreras it's not like you'd be pushing all your chips in for a two year run, but everyone listed above would be controlled for those two years except Julio, Viz, O'Day, and Venters.
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Yeah i agree with this, we can debate all day if Realmuto is worth the package he'll cost. But if they trade for him, dont half ass it, make other big moves.

Adding JT, Brantley, and some non elite bullpen arms and bench pieces doesnt really make you that much better.
 
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clvclv said:
Taking that the step further as I mention above about combining a Realmuto trade with a move for Kluber (or other TOR arm)...

If Touki/Riley/Tarnok gets you Realmuto, and Wright, Fried, Allard, and Waters gets you Kluber you're still left with...

Soroka, Gohara, Wilson (in Gwinnett) plus Weigel somewhere, Anderson, Wentz, Muller (in Mississippi), Pache, and Contreras with two top 20 picks in June. The hope would be that one of those guys at Gwinnett replaces Julio in 2020 and provides you the money for Realmuto, Wilson and Weigel step in as useful pen pieces in 2020 to replace Viz and O'Day and you can use their money to pay some of the arbitration raises, Pache replaces Ender in 2021 and you can trade him and use his money to pay for the rest of the raises, and Contreras is ready to step in when Realmuto walks.

I could probably almost live with that.
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I think it would cost Soroka, Wright or Anderson in a Realmuto deal.
 
Enscheff said:
I want someone to come up with one recent instance where a team spending massive resources to acquire a top in the rotation starter has worked out well for the acquiring team For the duration of the contract
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Sale?
 
Enscheff said:
I want someone to come up with one recent instance where a team spending massive resources to acquire a top in the rotation starter has worked out well for the acquiring team For the duration of the contract
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Still too early for "duration" of contract but Sale has been fantastic and he's the only true TOR I can think of who has been traded recently. Maybe Cole who has also been pretty good. I don't consider Archer in that class and that was a goofy trade to begin with. Quintana either.

Sale has already probably been worth it.
 
Heyward said:
I think it would cost Soroka, Wright or Anderson in a Realmuto deal.
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Then you let the Marlins have Soroka and keep Touki - no big deal.

The reason I'm assuming they'd rather have Touki is Soroka's injury. I'd include one of Soroka/Touki along with the other pieces in the Realmuto deal that was originally mentioned by Georgia Girl. If the Marlins HAD to have Anderson in a Realmuto trade, it's just Anderson and Riley with no third piece - if that's not enough, I'd probably walk away. That would still leave you Wright to use in a TOR arm deal and you keep Touki, Soroka, Gohara, and Wilson for your depth this year and keep developing Tarnok.

I'd want to keep Anderson since he's the youngest, but he wouldn't be a deal-breaker if you could make both trades and hold onto those other pieces. AA has said all along that his wishlist is a corner OF upgrade (Brantley/McCutchen), pen help (Allen/Soria/Herrera/Miller), a TOR starter (Kluber/Carrasco/Paxton), and it's been inferred all along that he wants Realmuto. If he could add all four of those pieces this winter without blowing past the ~$40 million we think he has to spend without emptying the farm and destroying his depth (Touki/Soroka/Gohara/Wilson/Wentz/Muller/Culberson/Pache/Contreras plus the two Top 20 picks), I personally think he'd have done a *ell of a job, and that we could legitimately contend.
 
zbhargrove said:
Still too early for "duration" of contract but Sale has been fantastic and he's the only true TOR I can think of who has been traded recently. Maybe Cole who has also been pretty good. I don't consider Archer in that class and that was a goofy trade to begin with. Quintana either.

Sale has already probably been worth it.
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And he’s already showing signs of wear, throwing only 158 innings this year.
 
NYCBrave said:
In addition to Sale, the Scherzer signing has worked out really well.
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Agreed with Scherzer. The only example in recent history where a huge expenditure on a TOR starter looks like it’s going to work out.

1 good, 20 bad.

But yes, let’s all assume acquiring a TOR starter will work out for the Braves
 
clvclv said:
Then you let the Marlins have Soroka and keep Touki - no big deal.

The reason I'm assuming they'd rather have Touki is Soroka's injury. I'd include one of Soroka/Touki along with the other pieces in the Realmuto deal that was originally mentioned by Georgia Girl. If the Marlins HAD to have Anderson in a Realmuto trade, it's just Anderson and Riley with no third piece - if that's not enough, I'd probably walk away. That would still leave you Wright to use in a TOR arm deal and you keep Touki, Soroka, Gohara, and Wilson for your depth this year and keep developing Tarnok.

I'd want to keep Anderson since he's the youngest, but he wouldn't be a deal-breaker if you could make both trades and hold onto those other pieces. AA has said all along that his wishlist is a corner OF upgrade (Brantley/McCutchen), pen help (Allen/Soria/Herrera/Miller), a TOR starter (Kluber/Carrasco/Paxton), and it's been inferred all along that he wants Realmuto. If he could add all four of those pieces this winter without blowing past the ~$40 million we think he has to spend without emptying the farm and destroying his depth (Touki/Soroka/Gohara/Wilson/Wentz/Muller/Culberson/Pache/Contreras plus the two Top 20 picks), I personally think he'd have done a *ell of a job, and that we could legitimately contend.
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Not saying you're wrong but do you have a link in AA saying that about TOR, corner OF'er, bullpen and C?
 
Heyward said:
Not saying you're wrong but do you have a link in AA saying that about TOR, corner OF'er, bullpen and C?
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I would suggest looking to what the Dodgers have done the last few years when trying to imagine what AA will do.

It is far more likely the Braves make a trade for an impact SP at the deadline than spend huge resources acquiring one now.

Like I said though, the blabber about “acquiring a TOR starter” is going to be endless, like it is every single year. Yeah yeah, “this year is different”...so was every other year.
 
Enscheff said:
I would suggest looking to what the Dodgers have done the last few years when trying to imagine what AA will do.

It is far more likely the Braves make a trade for an impact SP at the deadline than spend huge resources acquiring one now.

Like I said though, the blabber about “acquiring a TOR starter” is going to be endless, like it is every single year. Yeah yeah, “this year is different”...so was every other year.
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It really just depends on cost, Braves have the assets to trade for just about anyone they wanted, it's just if AA is willing to do so.

I agree on your SP part, but who knows.

I think C, corner OF, bench, and bullpen are bigger needs than SP personally though.
 
this offseason is most likely going to be about creating a deep roster, not about acquiring stars

I'll be surprised if we acquire a TOR
 
Enscheff said:
Verlander wasn’t a massive cost of acquisition. He was an August salary dump.
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It cost Houston their #3, #9 and #11 prospects though. I don't know if that is considered "massive," but neither is it what you trade for a salary dump.

Trading for a TOR is very risky, sure. You're gambling that they 1) stay healthy and 2) stay good. But at least you know that they have been good in the past. You're taking the same risk with prospects, only that they might not be good, and they might not be good enough for your window. Freeman is 29, so we've likely only got a couple more years before he starts declining. Acuna and Albies should get better, granted, but I think it makes some sense to use some of our capital to seriously compete soon rather than waiting 2 - 4 more years to see if we drafted a TOR
 
Enscheff said:
Agreed with Scherzer. The only example in recent history where a huge expenditure on a TOR starter looks like it’s going to work out.

1 good, 20 bad.

But yes, let’s all assume acquiring a TOR starter will work out for the Braves
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Sabathia worked out pretty well.

Kershaw.

But not a ton. Partly because there aren't a ton of true studs out there. But it's rarely a good to bet to make.

I think teams make those acquisitions knowing it will be a burden at the end but hopefully a bargain at the beginning.
 
Heyward said:
Not saying you're wrong but do you have a link in AA saying that about TOR, corner OF'er, bullpen and C?
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"If there’s a deal that makes sense for us, and it’s a good asset to have, we’ll do it,” Anthopoulos said. “I think the one where you scratch and really push, and you want to call it overpay in years or dollars, you feel like that’s the one final piece. Everything else is in place. That could be a trade in July. You step up a little bit."

"So I do think, especially with our payroll and so on, we have to make smart deals."

"The Braves made bigger name prospects available at the deadline, the GM confirmed, which indicates a willingness to move pitching for immediate help."

"There’s the big what-if in Madison Bumgarner. The Giants have resisted rebuilding, and like the Mets are bringing in a new GM. He’ll have his $12 million club option exercised and hit free agency as a 30-year-old in 2020. If San Francisco puts him out there, the Braves would explore it. He’s a proven postseason pitcher. There’s belief that if he were to change jerseys, the Braves are a preferred destination. A North Carolina native, an extension seems palatable, though you risk paying for his decline."

"“We’ll come up with our own internal values on guys,” Anthopoulos said. “If that value is there early, we’ll jump."

https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/braves-need-trade-for-ace/nKc4i87xVEnwuO0CE1uOqI/


None of that screams "we're looking for an Ace", but there's enough there to connect the dots that if an affordable one becomes available, he's paying attention if it doesn't gut the system. Kluber/Carrasco/Paxton all make less than $14 million and are under control for multiple years, so they at least fit the criteria he's describing. deGrom and Syndergaard obviously do too, but I find it awfully hard to imagine a scenario where the Mutts wouldn't require an unbelievably massive overpay to send either of them to us.




"Of course, moving players who are at or near the MLB level generally means giving up the ability to fill roster spots productively at bargain rates. Acquiring proven, high-level major-leaguers who are still playing for peanuts is next to impossible, even for an organization with a talent pool as deep as Atlanta’s. More likely, the club will be most successful at pursuing players who have at least reached arbitration or who are playing on attractive guaranteed contracts — players, that is, who are worth more than they are being paid, but aren’t still at or near the league-minimum."

"Perhaps it’s also possible that they’ll end up re-uniting with Markakis and Suzuki while otherwise only picking at the edges of the roster, though certainly that does not sound like the hoped-for or expected outcome."

"With a rather ambitious scope in mind entering the winter, it’s possible to imagine the club at least considering upgrades at all but a few positions on the roster. And if there’s a real desire for impactful roster additions, without the appetite for paying premium free agent price tags, then it’s possible we’ll see a creative, free-wheeling, multi-faceted winter of action in Atlanta."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/anthopoulos-discusses-braves-offseason.html
 
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