Same reason they got a mlb ready OFer for Yelich. They don't know what they are doing.
2018 Offseason And Targets
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Same reason they got a mlb ready OFer for Yelich. They don't know what they are doing.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yup. The lesser pieces should come last when prices drop. I don't see prices dropping for Grandal, Realmuto or Ramos. It is a seller's market for catcher. There might be some delay in the action as teams bidding for Harper and Machado focus on that. But I'm expecting several teams who lose out on those two to turn to catcher as a priority (Dodgers, gnats, Phillies).
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Lol I think we need to have a big competition for the dumbest franchise in baseball. Who would be the frontrunners? Orioles and Marlins definitely. Royals might be up there.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think you've identified the Big 3.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I think this will be our most likely approach, for good reason. My only fear is waiting to long to address the bench and not getting the type of left handed quality that we want. But you're right, that fear is probably unfounded. There are almost always quality players available for bargain prices late in the offseason
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I just wonder where the market is going to settle for Grandal and Ramos. If it is going to settle under 15 million per year or over 15 million per year. I think answering that question is going to dictate much of the rest of our path this offseason. I think, for Ramos, under 15 million is a pretty good bet. I'm expecting something like 2-3 years at 11 million. I'd quickly offer Grandal 3 years at 45 million and offer Ramos 3 years at 11 million if it appears that Grandal isn't going to go for that deal.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Right?? We will never be able to compete with this guy in the division!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I would be surprised if the AAV for Grandal wasn't above 15M. Ramos should be closer to 10M. There are questions about what kind of workload he can handle due to his history of knee injuries. He might be the right guy for us given we have a strong #2 in Flowers and we would be looking to split the games.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Possibly, but I wouldn't be TOO surprised on Grandal. Just a little surprised. But right now there are reports that his postseason seriously affected team's perception of him. It would be really dumb if that is the case, but I also don't want to underestimate people's ability to be really stupid.
I'll be surprised if Grandal doesn't get $80M, which is the market rate for "best FA catcher".
If the Braves get him for something like 3/45 (FG) or even 4/64 (MLBTR) I'd consider that a pretty good deal.
Of course maybe I'm not taking his post season performance seriously enough...
If the Braves get him for something like 3/45 (FG) or even 4/64 (MLBTR) I'd consider that a pretty good deal.
Of course maybe I'm not taking his post season performance seriously enough...
Angels have to be up there too. They have a huge advantage over 2/3 of the league in payroll, along with the advantage of having a 27 year old who's arguably a top 50 overall player in the history of baseball less than 10 years into his career. Yet they chug along in mediocrity year after year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Pujols
I mean they did trade away Sean Newcomb
Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson? I can't imagine the J-Up contract ends well either.
Kiley just wrote up his take on the acquisition cost of Realmuto: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/
He says some pretty stupid things like: "Steamer projects Realmuto for 3.7 WAR in 2019, which I think can reasonably be pushed to 4.0 with framing"...moronic because Realmuto has been consistently negative as a pitch framer.
However, he comes up with a surplus value of "$75 million asset value, maybe a hair lower, as both numbers are on the aggressive side". That jives fairly well with the ~$60M value we toss around here when we talk about Realmuto's trade value.
Then another odd comment..."If we’re gonna say Realmuto is worth $70 million or so, a two-player package needs to be some multiple above that number, since the Marlins would prefer all of that value in one player. What’s the right number, though? Maybe 20% higher?" I have never seen any indication that MLB teams place a 20% penalty on a pair of prospects. Every trade I've analyzed suggests teams shoot for a prospect headliner worth over half the total surplus value, and then add in progressively lesser pieces until the surplus value of the MLB asset is met. This math has held true time and time again over the last 5 years or so.
Then he gets to the Braves: "It’s been reported that, in July, the Marlins turned down an offer of RHP Mike Soroka (No. 25 on the Top 100) and 3B Austin Riley (No. 28)" That's a couple of 55s according to FG's board, which should be worth about $80M. He then suggests adding Muller, a 45 worth $10M+.
Why would the Marlins turn down a Soroka/Riley package now? Likely because Soroka is hurt, not because $80M isn't enough. Additionally, that alleged proposal was made during the 2018 season when Soroka was healthy and Realmuto's value was even higher than it is now.
If the Braves give up $90M+ in prospect value for Realmuto I will consider that a fairly significant overpay, and a very poor value acquisition.
He says some pretty stupid things like: "Steamer projects Realmuto for 3.7 WAR in 2019, which I think can reasonably be pushed to 4.0 with framing"...moronic because Realmuto has been consistently negative as a pitch framer.
However, he comes up with a surplus value of "$75 million asset value, maybe a hair lower, as both numbers are on the aggressive side". That jives fairly well with the ~$60M value we toss around here when we talk about Realmuto's trade value.
Then another odd comment..."If we’re gonna say Realmuto is worth $70 million or so, a two-player package needs to be some multiple above that number, since the Marlins would prefer all of that value in one player. What’s the right number, though? Maybe 20% higher?" I have never seen any indication that MLB teams place a 20% penalty on a pair of prospects. Every trade I've analyzed suggests teams shoot for a prospect headliner worth over half the total surplus value, and then add in progressively lesser pieces until the surplus value of the MLB asset is met. This math has held true time and time again over the last 5 years or so.
Then he gets to the Braves: "It’s been reported that, in July, the Marlins turned down an offer of RHP Mike Soroka (No. 25 on the Top 100) and 3B Austin Riley (No. 28)" That's a couple of 55s according to FG's board, which should be worth about $80M. He then suggests adding Muller, a 45 worth $10M+.
Why would the Marlins turn down a Soroka/Riley package now? Likely because Soroka is hurt, not because $80M isn't enough. Additionally, that alleged proposal was made during the 2018 season when Soroka was healthy and Realmuto's value was even higher than it is now.
If the Braves give up $90M+ in prospect value for Realmuto I will consider that a fairly significant overpay, and a very poor value acquisition.
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I'm beginning to really question Kiley's analytic bonafides. Its like he always comes fairly close to the right idea, but then he just adds a little extra stupid stuff on top that keeps him from hitting the mark.
I'm not really sure why they are using him to do these player value articles. He and EL make a good prospect duo, but Kiley just doesn't seem to grasp the MLB player valuation side of things.
We will find out soon enough though. Does Realmuto get traded for $60M in assets, or $90M in assets? That's a large enough gap in valuation that it can't be chalked up to subjective gray areas of prospect value.
dak
Well-known member
I'm not as hot on Austin Riley as some due to concerns about his defense, but I'd still be reluctant to trade him. He should be a solid MLB contributor, and he serves as a nice insurance policy at AAA if we encounter injury or underperformance at any of the infield positions. I'd like to see the Braves hold on to Pache, Waters, and Contreras too.
I'm 100% confident we will trade some MLB-ready or close to MLB-ready pitching though, and I think that's appropriate. After a year of self-scouting, the AA regime should have clarity on the pieces they value less than the market. They should try to find a match at an area of need with clubs interested in those pitchers. In other words, work the process backwards. I don't think that nets you Realmuto, which is fine by me. It's more likely to lead to a trade for a corner OF with some years of control.
I'm 100% confident we will trade some MLB-ready or close to MLB-ready pitching though, and I think that's appropriate. After a year of self-scouting, the AA regime should have clarity on the pieces they value less than the market. They should try to find a match at an area of need with clubs interested in those pitchers. In other words, work the process backwards. I don't think that nets you Realmuto, which is fine by me. It's more likely to lead to a trade for a corner OF with some years of control.
Markakis just won a 2018 Silver Slugger Award...
Consider the narrative we are about to hear: "Nick Markakis, a 2018 All Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Winner, is still waiting for a FA contract in late January".
The dinosaurs are going to be completely dumbfounded...
Consider the narrative we are about to hear: "Nick Markakis, a 2018 All Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Winner, is still waiting for a FA contract in late January".
The dinosaurs are going to be completely dumbfounded...
The geniuses over at TC just completed their "GM simulation" with equally talented writers from other team sites.
https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/11/8/18076306/sbn-offseason-gm-simulation-2018-2019-overview
They traded away 23 players and completely overhauled the entire organization.
They signed Grandal for 4/98...yes...$98M.
Those guys are...special haha.
https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/11/8/18076306/sbn-offseason-gm-simulation-2018-2019-overview
They traded away 23 players and completely overhauled the entire organization.
They signed Grandal for 4/98...yes...$98M.
Those guys are...special haha.
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