nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
high midichlorian count has this young padawan
2018 Offseason And Targets
- Thread starter clvclv
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high midichlorian count has this young padawan
You have just created a $140M opening day payroll and dumped every single pitching prospect of note other than Touki and a guy with massive injury/professionalism questions for 2 years of an elite battery. Even if the Braves could somehow afford a $140M payroll, this series of moves essentially reduces the Braves current 5+ year window of contention corresponding to Acuna/Albies years of control down to 2 years.
After those 2 seasons of 95 wins and potentially deep playoff runs, the team is stuck with the last 1-2 years of an aging Kluber, Marwin and Brantley, a huge hole at C, and very little internally to replace them.
Think I'll pass on gutting the farm for 2 years of success. Mid-market teams need to plan smarter than this long term.
Very risky plan, but to your credit you made the individual trades fairly realistic. That's just too much to give up in one off-season, imo. We have a good amount of payroll space. Might as well use most of that space in the FA market where it only cost you money and not money plus prospects.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
The 5.5 WAR comment was me actually giving his value the benefit of the doubt. I was saying, at best, this is how much he'll cost in prospects. If we want a more tempered projection then it could be as low as 25 or 30 million in surplus value. I thought it was pretty obvious that I was making this point to address his likely prospect cost (which shouldn't be too high than), rather than comparing him to Brantley or Mccutchen from a quality standpoint. The main benefit of a Peralta trade is the money you would save. He's not going to make more than 7 million next year. So, yeah, you are sort of correct when you say that we'd use those saved resources to pursue guys who would fill other holes, the same thing we would do if we did the opposite and traded for Realmuto; those resources would go into signing an outfielder/bench/bullpen/whatever. I'm not sure why you are skeptical of us spending those saved resources. But purely from a baseball standpoint, I still like Peralta more than Mccutchen or Brantley. In the past three seasons, Peralta has been worth 6.9 bWAR and only played in 48 games in 2016. I know that 2016 injury seems concerning, but it was his wrist and he's shown no signs of any lingering issues. In that same time frame, Mccutchen has been worth 4.7 WAR. A lot of that has to do with him losing defensive value in CF in 2016, but still... I like Peralta's upside a little better. Plus Peralta is left handed and I think that balances the lineup out better. Brantley's flaws are more obvious. Injury history being the biggest one. He's a good player, but I'd also prefer to get a little more power in our acquisition. I also like Peralta's defense a little more than Brantley's in LF as well. I would also presume that any Brantley or McCutchen deal would involve a 3+ year commitment. For Peralta it would only involve 2, for less money. So yeah I'm willing to give up 30-45 million in surplus value to gain the perceived benefits of a Peralta acquisition. One thing that should also be mentioned: This particular offseason path would be ideal if we got Grandal in FA. That is one major reason to address cOF through trade. I think getting an elite pitch framer with a good bat plus a power corner outfielder would be a better offseason than trading for a poor pitch framer (JT) and signing a corner outfielder like the ones mentioned here. Not to mention the fact that this path would cost less in terms of prospects and probably money. So a Peralta acquisition would make far more sense when framed in this context.
As far as me dodging the question, I don't think that is what I was doing at all. You named several players so it was easier to just put a few in a "preferable" group and a few in a "not preferable" group instead of listing the pros and cons for each one. Schwarber would be expensive, but I think he'd be worth it in a lot of respects. He's actually not as bad of a defender as you're making out. In fact, he had pretty darn good UZR numbers last year after losing some weight. He's projected for 3.1 wins next year and I'd consider him an improvement over Markakis. The only question with him is cost. If we project him for 3 wins the next three seasons and he makes 25 million over that time frame, then he'd be worth about 65 million in SV. More than Peralta, less than Realmuto. So it'd just be a question of how much you like him as a player.
As far as the other guys go, Pederson is the next one that would make sense. And considering everything... it'd be close... but yeah, I actually do think a Pederson/Duvall platoon would be better if Duvall comes back and can hit lefties semi-well. We're talking about a guy that hit 24 homers in 380 PAs with almost a .900 OPS against righties. If Duvall could hit ~.750 OPS against lefties, I think that'd be a better outcome than Cutch or Brantley. Once again it'd all come down to cost. I'd have Pederson at about 5 wins over his next two seasons for ~18 million dollars. 32 million SV: not that bad.
There are also other guys who could become available and we could explore that you didn't mention. One of the bigger names that I think its possible we hear some rumors on is Joey Gallo. If he did become available, he would certainly be very expensive to acquire. 4 years of control at 3 wins per year... He'd cost us quite a lot. But it would be something to explore if he did become available. There are other names that haven't been mentioned as well, but this post is getting long enough as it is.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
If we are doing the major move I still want to do a combo deal.
The best combo deals to me are
Paxton and Haniger
Realmuto and Brian Anderson
If you are giving up 3+ top 100 guys I'd bundle and get both. I know it's expensive. But if we are pushing big chips in I'd prefer one big deal to multiple big deals. The bundle works in negotiations.
Haniger is the one I'd want. I don't know if they move him. They'll ask for so much for him that I'd try to grab Paxton to justify the cost and to maybe entice them to take a Newk back in the package.
Anderson was a rookie so maybe the Marlins won't him. But they are not going to be good in his prime or his control window. Anderson is a good player but not a star. But he could be a 3B for a long time and can also play OF if needed. I'm not a fan or the Realmuto move but if I'm giving up Wright and Riley in that deal I would want to see if a little more can get me Anderson. Anderson is under control for most of his prime years since he'll be 26 entering his second year.
The best combo deals to me are
Paxton and Haniger
Realmuto and Brian Anderson
If you are giving up 3+ top 100 guys I'd bundle and get both. I know it's expensive. But if we are pushing big chips in I'd prefer one big deal to multiple big deals. The bundle works in negotiations.
Haniger is the one I'd want. I don't know if they move him. They'll ask for so much for him that I'd try to grab Paxton to justify the cost and to maybe entice them to take a Newk back in the package.
Anderson was a rookie so maybe the Marlins won't him. But they are not going to be good in his prime or his control window. Anderson is a good player but not a star. But he could be a 3B for a long time and can also play OF if needed. I'm not a fan or the Realmuto move but if I'm giving up Wright and Riley in that deal I would want to see if a little more can get me Anderson. Anderson is under control for most of his prime years since he'll be 26 entering his second year.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Is there a Matt Diaz type guy available? With Inciarte and possibly Brantley it would be nice to have a 4th OF that can crush LH.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Okay, after reading through all this, I think people are underestimating Peralta. He's really not that big of an injury risk. He had one season where he hurt his wrist and required surgery, but he is now two seasons removed from that injury without any major concerns. If you take out his injured season, his fWAR numbers look like this 1.0 (88 games in rookie season), 3.9, 1.8, and 3.8. For bWAR his numbers are 1.6, 3.6, 2.5, 3.9. When he gets 500+ PAs, he has consistently been a 2-4 win player. He's been a very consistent player for the D'backs. The only cause for concern is that 2016 season. Obviously the same can be said about Brantley, but there are a few differences. Brantley had two seasons in a row with major injury problems. I think his injury history is more concerning than Peralta's by quite a bit. He will also require a bigger commitment than Peralta. I don't see Brantley signing for less than 3 or 4 years at 15 million per year. Peralta will cost 18-20 million over two.
McCutchen is a little closer in preference for me, but the only way I'd take him over Peralta is if we could get him on a 2 year deal or, at most, a 2+1. I'd prefer to not have to buy McCutchen's age 34 and 35 seasons if it could be avoided. But if we could somehow avoid giving McCutchen a 3+ year deal, then I think I'd have to start considering that path a viable option. But I still think I'd rather get our outfielder through trade and sign a catcher like Grandal who is the better pitch framer.
McCutchen is a little closer in preference for me, but the only way I'd take him over Peralta is if we could get him on a 2 year deal or, at most, a 2+1. I'd prefer to not have to buy McCutchen's age 34 and 35 seasons if it could be avoided. But if we could somehow avoid giving McCutchen a 3+ year deal, then I think I'd have to start considering that path a viable option. But I still think I'd rather get our outfielder through trade and sign a catcher like Grandal who is the better pitch framer.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25258102/a-blockbuster-offseason-move-all-30-teams
ESPN article suggesting Pache, Riley and Touki for Kluber. I'd HATE that.
Spend years getting pitchers and then trade our two best position guys plus my favorite of the starters for a Starter.
I'm not trading Pache unless I'm getting a non-catcher position player with an 800 plus OPS and I control for 3+ years. I'd hate to use Riley but the swing and miss is real. I know Waters is a thing but we'll see. Pache may not ever hit but he's a legit CF now. He could be Inciarte on defense as early as next year.
ESPN article suggesting Pache, Riley and Touki for Kluber. I'd HATE that.
Spend years getting pitchers and then trade our two best position guys plus my favorite of the starters for a Starter.
I'm not trading Pache unless I'm getting a non-catcher position player with an 800 plus OPS and I control for 3+ years. I'd hate to use Riley but the swing and miss is real. I know Waters is a thing but we'll see. Pache may not ever hit but he's a legit CF now. He could be Inciarte on defense as early as next year.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Both of those packages would end up being absurdly expensive. Like, way out of any reasonable fan's comfort zone expensive. For the Haniger/Paxton deal, you're talking about 150+ million in surplus value. For the Realmuto deal, you're talking about even more. Maybe all the way up to 200 million in SV, if you consider Anderson a 2-3 win guy that is controllable for 5 years. Those deals would gut our farm system completely.
With that said, I'm not opposed to some more reasonable combo deals that kill two birds with one stone. The one that nsacpi proposed that I really like is a trade for Peralta and Lamb. We'd get our corner outfielder and we'd address our need for a left handed bench infielder to solve our infield platoon issues. Plus, adding Lamb to a deal like that wouldn't substantially raise the cost of acquisition.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I LOVE peralta. I'd take him in a vacuum over most anyone not named Harper.
My issues with him:
1. We have to trade. I'd rather spend money than prospects. Arizona has a horrid rotation so maybe they'd like major league ready arms like we have. Maybe even want Tehran.
2. Only 2 years of control. Cost matters here.
3. Age. Controlled through age 32. Do you want to extend him past that?
Having a LH corner OF with some control who can hit and defend.....that's our number one need IMO.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Geez I'd probably just go ahead and kms if the Braves did a trade like that. AA, I know you like the big trade, but please no. Not this one.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
My rebuttal to that:
1. The Mariners are weird. They have made weird trades and who knows what they value. But taking Paxton they may let us supplement value with guys like Tehran, Newk, Fried, etc.
2. The Marlins are tanking. They have to move Realmuto. They are not run by stats. So far it looks to me like they are wanting to win the press conference. They go to mlb.com and get your top guys. Soroka is the top guy on MLB.com. Riley is the top position guy. Then you grab 3 more top 15 guys with a second pitcher from the top 5. They might like a guy like Jenista because he's close but not there.
Maybe I'm in the minority or by myself but I'd rather pay 5 of the top 15 for Realmuto and Anderson than 3 for Realmuto alone. If we lose only one of Riley/Pache/Waters then I'm in. we'd still have at least 1 of Touki, Soroka, Wright and Anderson. Still have two of Riley/Pache/Waters. Still have Contreras. But maybe you are right and the Marlins laugh at that. I see Jeter smiling and saying we got 5 of the top 15 of the best system in MLB. And we got a pitcher and hitter who could be up as early as this year. They likely take one of Newk/Fried.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
1. I'm going into this offseason assuming that we'll make 1 trade and 1 signing to address corner outfield and catcher. That may be a poor assumption, but given our farm and our payroll considerations, this path makes the most sense to me. If that is true, then it is a question of how much you want to give up and whether you want to trade for a catcher (likely Realmuto) or corner outfielder. In this binary situation, I think trading for Peralta over Realmuto is the preferred option (especially since he'd cost about half of what Realmuto will cost). Then we could sign someone like Grandal, who I like a good bit more than Realmuto defensively.
2. I actually don't have a big problem with the 2 years of control. That buys us time with our OF prospects and given Peralta's age I really wouldn't want to trade for him and pay for the extra years if he was controlled through 2022 or something.
3. Nah I wouldn't want to extend him. All of the obvious candidates to fill corner outfield (through trade or FA) are around the same age and I wouldn't want to control any of them past 2020. However, if you don't think we have any internal options for 2021, maybe this consideration will make you want to explore some other trade candidates who may be younger and/or more controllable than Peralta. Some of the options we talked about earlier were Rosario, Gallo, Pederson, Schwarber, etc. Only issue with this is that the cost for each one would be substantially higher than the cost of Peralta.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Maybe you are right and the Marlins are so stupid that they end up undervaluing their own assets. Maybe the Mariners are as well. Maybe we could get those guys for under 100 million in SV. If that is the case, then go for it. That would be great value for us.
But realistically its hard for me to believe that the Marlins are so dumb that they don't realize how much value they have in Brian Anderson. If you project him as a 3 win, 3 win, 3 win, 2.5 win, 2.5 win type of guy who will make ~30 million over that time frame, that is a 110 million dollar asset. That is actually more valuable than two years of Realmuto. So unless the Marlins are just knuckle dragging morons from the stone age (possible), then its hard for me to imagine getting both of those guys for ~100 million in SV. Of course the "5 top 15 guys" parameters are pretty vague and could add up to a fair package if you pick from the top. A package of Pache (53 million), Soroka (43 million), Riley (43 million), Gohara (39 million), and Wentz (14 million) might actually be a fair package for those two (192 million). But that is a package that is way too expensive for my taste.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Peralta + Grandal is my plan A. Of course if Peralta costs more than I think and/or Grandal is north of 15 million per or 5 years then things change.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I would not do Riley and Pache.
I would do Soroka or Wright. Riley or Pache. Gohara (selling low so hard to believe he's that high) and Wentz. I think they might want Newk or Fried and I'd give one of those. I'd give them both Wentz and Muller if they want.
Newk-Plays now and upgrades current team.
Wright-number 1 prospect not injured. Top pick.
Riley-can move in for Anderson as early as the all star break.
Gohara
Wentz or Muller or Allard-crafty lefty
Jenista-college bat
I'd do that deal for Anderson and Realmuto.
Then I've got money and assets to do more.
What's the value on my proposed deal?
I get that, and agree with your preference for the shorter deal - I just disagree with your guess about what the acquisition cost for Peralta will be. My preference all along has been for Grandal and Peralta, I'm just not convinced AA will spend the money when he KNOWS he can pick up the phone at any point and go get Realmuto. I think most of us agree that the framing difference between the two should be a huge consideration, but you also have to consider Contreras in all of this. If they really are as high on him as AA says (and it's not just GM-Speak), do you really want a $15 million or more Catcher splitting time with or blocking him? We don't have any corner OFs on the fast track, so signing McCutchen or Brantley wouldn't cause that type of issue.
In an ideal world (for me at least), you could get Peralta for Wilson and Wentz as you suggest, trade Julio, Wright, and a throw-in for Paxton, and use the available money to sign Grandal, Britton, and Gonzalez and head to camp. That would leave you with Pache and Waters to replace Peralta and Ender in a couple years, Riley to push Camargo into a super-utility role and replace Peralta's power when he's ready, Contreras as Grandal insurance, and still leave you with Gohara, Soroka, Touki, Fried, and Anderson as candidates to step into the rotation as Paxton and Gausman walk away. Unfortunately I just don't see any way that happens.
Realmuto/Grandal/Ramos(maybe) and Cutch/Peralta/Brantley are approximately equally productive players capable of filling C and cOF for a contending team. I am confident AA has identified these guys (plus a few others we haven't thought of) as potential fits, and I'm going to assume he will go with the best value available.
I would be fine with either of the C/cOF solutions above with good value being the paramount concern. I see no reason to pay market price for one of those players if another is available at a better value. I will, however, be extremely disappointed if AA doesn't fill those 2 voids with players at least that caliber...anything less should be considered a failure by the FO.
The wildcard is whether or not AA wants to spend even more resources acquiring a "frontline starter". While I generally disagree with that tired cliche, I would be all for it if a team overvalues someone like Newk, Fried or Allard as a significant "win now" piece. I'm also probably the low man around these boards on both Riley and Pache, so I wouldn't be too upset to see them traded if another team over values them.
I'm also fairly confident that 1 significant trade will be made, so if AA signs a FA C and cOF, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that trade being for someone like Paxton (I think AA will know how to manage his health to have him ready as a true weapon in the post season). I am firmly against signing either of the top FA SPs.
I also fully expect the Braves to be all in for all big names on the trade market at the deadline. Everyone from a rental TOR guy, to BP Aces, to Arenado will be linked to the Braves...exactly as is the case for the Dodgers at every trade deadline.
Basically, whatever the Dodgers have done the last ~5 years, expect the Braves to largely copy.
I would be fine with either of the C/cOF solutions above with good value being the paramount concern. I see no reason to pay market price for one of those players if another is available at a better value. I will, however, be extremely disappointed if AA doesn't fill those 2 voids with players at least that caliber...anything less should be considered a failure by the FO.
The wildcard is whether or not AA wants to spend even more resources acquiring a "frontline starter". While I generally disagree with that tired cliche, I would be all for it if a team overvalues someone like Newk, Fried or Allard as a significant "win now" piece. I'm also probably the low man around these boards on both Riley and Pache, so I wouldn't be too upset to see them traded if another team over values them.
I'm also fairly confident that 1 significant trade will be made, so if AA signs a FA C and cOF, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that trade being for someone like Paxton (I think AA will know how to manage his health to have him ready as a true weapon in the post season). I am firmly against signing either of the top FA SPs.
I also fully expect the Braves to be all in for all big names on the trade market at the deadline. Everyone from a rental TOR guy, to BP Aces, to Arenado will be linked to the Braves...exactly as is the case for the Dodgers at every trade deadline.
Basically, whatever the Dodgers have done the last ~5 years, expect the Braves to largely copy.
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Newk is difficult to put a value on, as has been discussed before, but I think that would be about right. It might be a little rich if you are a little higher on Newk, but overall I'd be comfortable with that price for both of those guys. I don't think it'd be my opening bid though. I think I'd start with something like Wilson and Allard (38 million) and work up to Newk and Wentz (Tough to say, but I'm gonna give them 55-65 million). I think they could probably find some middle ground in there somewhere.
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