2018 Offseason And Targets

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Braves would lose their 2nd round pick if they signed a FA with a QO offer, yeah no.

And the ones wanting to go cheap at C, you get what you pay for.
 
Heyward said:
Braves would lose their 2nd round pick if they signed a FA with a QO offer, yeah no.

And the ones wanting to go cheap at C, you get what you pay for.
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I agree.

No sense in sacrificing bonus pool or picks when the Braves already have problems with talent intake for the foreseeable future and something of a talent gap in the bottom of the system already.
 
Enscheff said:
Do you know approximately which pick that is, and the expected surplus value of that pick?
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Yeah this is important to consider. Where is out 2nd round pick? I'd guess in the 55 range? Isn't that pick usually worth in the range of 5-10 million in surplus value? That doesn't seem like something I'd be too concerned with losing, considering that Realmuto will cost up north of 70 million in SV and I don't consider him to be THAT much more valuable than Grandal.
 
Southcack77 said:
I agree.

No sense in sacrificing bonus pool or picks when the Braves already have problems with talent intake for the foreseeable future and something of a talent gap in the bottom of the system already.
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Well, it depends on how you want to look at it. To upgrade catcher we are going to have to sacrifice picks or prospects, unless we go with Ramos. Maybe that consideration makes you lean towards Ramos. But if you're dead set on Realmuto or dead set on Grandal, you're gonna lose some future value either way. In my estimation, you'd lose far less (in terms of farm system surplus value) in sacrificing a 2nd round draft pick than you would trading what it would take to get Realmuto. But if you're a person who wants to hold on to that value, then Ramos or a lesser acquisition becomes more desirable.
 
Carp said:
As opposed to giving up several better prospects that are closer to the majors for a catcher that's not really any better?
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I mean we're gonna have to trade for an outfielder or catcher, cant prospect hoard when you're contending. Not how it works. The teams that win ships, make big moves and make **** happen.
 
Heyward said:
I mean we're gonna have to trade for an outfielder or catcher, cant prospect hoard when you're contending. Not how it works. The teams that win ships, make big moves and make **** happen.
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Right, but what he is saying is that you should have some cognitive dissonance about this. You're unwilling to lose a second round pick to acquire Grandal, but you're willing to give up 7-10x that pick's value in order to acquire Realmuto. A player who definitely isn't THAT much better than Grandal.

By the way, you could make the same argument you're making about draft picks. "Well, contending teams don't give a crap about QOs or draft picks if that is the only thing in their way of a big move. Who cares about a 2nd round pick if you're signing a big free agent?"
 
BeanieAntics said:
Yeah this is important to consider. Where is out 2nd round pick? I'd guess in the 55 range? Isn't that pick usually worth in the range of 5-10 million in surplus value? That doesn't seem like something I'd be too concerned with losing, considering that Realmuto will cost up north of 70 million in SV and I don't consider him to be THAT much more valuable than Grandal.
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Pick 55 right now, but it could move a bit by draft day depending on where QO FAs end up. Either way, that's typically a FV40/40+ prospect. According to this:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

those prospects carry a surplus value anywhere from $1M-$4M.

Being generous and giving that prospect a $5M value is real value, and will definitely be factored into the acquisition cost of Grandal. However, let's refrain from acting like losing the ~55th pick in the 2019 draft is some non-starter for the Braves signing a FA.

The question comes down to:

1. $60M-$80M in salary plus $5M in prospect capital for 4/5 years of Grandal
2. $60M+ in prospect capital plus $20M in salary for 2 years of Realmuto

The choice seems pretty obvious to me if those numbers are at all accurate.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
Right, but what he is saying is that you should have some cognitive dissonance about this. You're unwilling to lose a second round pick to acquire Grandal, but you're willing to give up 7-10x that pick's value in order to acquire Realmuto. A player who definitely isn't THAT much better than Grandal.

By the way, you could make the same argument you're making about draft picks. "Well, contending teams don't give a crap about QOs or draft picks if that is the only thing in their way of a big move. Who cares about a 2nd round pick if you're signing a big free agent?"
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I wouldn't expect many folks around here to make logically consistent arguments haha.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Right, but what he is saying is that you should have some cognitive dissonance about this. You're unwilling to lose a second round pick to acquire Grandal, but you're willing to give up 7-10x that pick's value in order to acquire Realmuto. A player who definitely isn't THAT much better than Grandal.

By the way, you could make the same argument you're making about draft picks. "Well, contending teams don't give a crap about QOs or draft picks if that is the only thing in their way of a big move. Who cares about a 2nd round pick if you're signing a big free agent?"
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I think both have risks, Braves need one of Ramos, Grandal or Realmuto as OD catcher. I trust AA in what he does and what direction that is.
 
If we trade for Realmuto we have him for at least 2yrs. Grandal or Ramos for as long as we want and can wait until Contreras is ready. I'm for keeping our prospects but would like to sign Brantley,Pollack or McCutchen.
 
How about Ender and Swanson for Schwarber and Happ. Move Ozzie to SS and sign Dozier or Marwin Gonzalez to 2B. Sign Grandal or Ramos for Catcher.
 
Heyward said:
I mean we're gonna have to trade for an outfielder or catcher, cant prospect hoard when you're contending. Not how it works. The teams that win ships, make big moves and make **** happen.
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That doesn't dispute anything I said. How is giving up 2nd rounder worse than giving up multiple top prospects when the players being discussed are near equal?
 
Seems to me that those arguing against 4-5 years of Grandal because Contreras will be ready in 2 years are holding a paper bag of water, IMO. The prospect value of the 2nd round pick(5 mil value) is not even a real consideration when signing Grandal. They are forgetting that Flowers could/should be gone in 2 years when Contreras is ready. The extra 2-3 years of Grandal to mentor Contreras is very valuable IMO.

As has been stated, giving up 60 mil in prospects value plus 20 mil salary for 2 years for Realmuto is not in the the best interests of keeping a competitive team for PS plus the Braves would be right back in the same place they are now in 2 years.

Sign Grandal for 4 years with 5th year option, use the prospect value to sign a TOR pitcher and or cOF.
 
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salmagundy said:
Seems to me that those arguing against 4-5 years of Grandal because Contreras will be ready in 2 years are holding a paper bag of water, IMO. The prospect value of the 2nd round pick(5 mil value) is not even a real consideration when signing Grandal. They are forgetting that Flowers could/should be gone in 2 years when Contreras is ready. The extra 2-3 years of Grandal to mentor Contreras is very valuable IMO.


As has been stated, giving up 60 mil in prospects value plus 20 mil salary for 2 years for Realmuto is not in the the best interests of keeping a competitive team for PS plus the Braves would be right back in the same place they are now in 2 years.

Sign Grandal for 4 years with 5th year option, use the prospect value to sign a TOR pitcher and or cOF.
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This makes too much sense....
 
So do the braves lose the second round pick or third round pick. CBA says third highest pick. But we now have 2 1st round pick. Is the one from last year exempt?

Assuming we sign a qualifying FA of course.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
So do the braves lose the second round pick or third round pick. CBA says third highest pick. But we now have 2 1st round pick. Is the one from last year exempt?

Assuming we sign a qualifying FA of course.
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I don’t think that extra first rounder changes anything. It’s still our third pick, so late second round. Sucks.
 
clvclv said:
There's absolutely NO WAY I'd go there personally. I think way too many people are sleeping on the news that Luiz has dropped 35 pounds already. If there's one Pitcher in the stable of arms we've built that actually profiles as a homegrown Ace, Gohara is that guy.

Is it unlikely that he reaches his ceiling? Sure. But there's not another Pitcher in our system with a ceiling that high if things happen to somehow work out - including Wright and Anderson.

If they're trying to move Pederson to create space for Verdugo, offer them someone else (or a combination of lower ceiling arms) or make an offer for Verdugo. I like Pederson's pop as much as anyone, but I wouldn't give Gohara up for anyone I can't plug into the lineup regardless of who's on the mound.

If you're getting Verdugo instead, then I might talk about Gohara. An Acuna/Verdugo/Ender (eventually Pache) outfield would be an absolute dream for a LONG TIME.
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Gohara has already lost 35 lbs? If so, that's excellent news as he's one of our few guys with electric stuff AND some level of control.
 
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