2018 Offseason And Targets

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That seems pretty light for the Mariners. Sheffield is a good prospect but other than that, there isnt much coming back. I would have topped that from the Braves.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Hmmm, disagree on Swanson. He just turned 25 and I'm not sure a 3.86 ERA across 72 innings in AAA at age 25 is anything to write home about. He does seem to have decent command and some strikeout capabilities, but I think generally I would prefer Muller or Wentz over him. At the beginning of the year Fangraphs didn't even have him in the Yankee's top 27 prospects.
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Swanson's peripherals were quite good. But he is a little old for the level. Still I would guess he is close in value to Wentz or Muller.

My thinking is Sheffied is a little more valuable than Newcombe. Wentz is a wash with Swanson. Which means we would have had to send someone a little move valuable than Thompson-Williams to equalize the value. Someone like Muller.
 
nsacpi said:
The return for Paxton makes me think we should make a similar offer for Carasco. Paxton and Carasco are very close in value.
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Carrasco has much better value and is better. Think it would cost quite a bit more for CC than Paxton's trade.
 
I prefer the Yankees side of this deal. In Braves terms, the industry valuation on Sheffield would be most similar to Toussaint, I assume? I was thinking that it would take better secondary pieces to get Paxton than the two guys NYY gave up if the primary guy is Sheffield.
 
nsacpi said:
I think it was a fair trade.

In another thread I advocated offering Newcomb plus Wentz for Paxton. Which I think is a little light. It would have been a decent opening bid. I hope we at least checked in with the M's.

Why you trying to trade Gohara? I think we would be selling him cheap.
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I think you and I just have different valuations on our own prospects. I think a Newcomb/Wentz package is right on par with what the Yankees just gave up. I don't see Swanson as being anything more than, at best, a 45 FV guy with some back of the rotation potential. I'd rate Wentz a good bit higher than that. I'd probably take Sheffield over Newcomb on the top end, but I think Wentz over Swanson/Williams would even out the value to a certain extent.

As far as Gohara goes, its pretty difficult to pick which prospect I'd like to send from our high end crop. I like Anderson/Gohara/Touki/Soroka/Wright all about the same. So at some point it is splitting hairs, but if I had to send one it'd either be Anderson or Gohara. I just picked Gohara because he currently has the most risk attached to him. I know the upside is there and you could probably talk me in to sending Anderson (or maybe Wright), but if we can get similar value out of Gohara then right now that is where I'm at.
 
dak said:
I prefer the Yankees side of this deal. In Braves terms, the industry valuation on Sheffield would be most similar to Toussaint, I assume? I was thinking that it would take better secondary pieces to get Paxton than the two guys NYY gave up if the primary guy is Sheffield.
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Higher than Toussaint. I know FG has both as FV 50 players. But I think FG is simply wrong there.
 
nsacpi said:
Swanson's peripherals were quite good. But he is a little old for the level. Still I would guess he is close in value to Wentz or Muller.

My thinking is Sheffied is a little more valuable than Newcombe. Wentz is a wash with Swanson. Which means we would have had to send someone a little move valuable than Thompson-Williams to equalize the value. Someone like Muller.
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I just think you're super low on Wentz or either too high on Swanson. I don't even think you could make an argument that Swanson is a 50 FV guy (maybe you could, but I don't see it), but I don't think I've seen anyone slap a grade lower than 50 FV on Wentz.
 
Heyward said:
Carrasco has much better value and is better. Think it would cost quite a bit more for CC than Paxton's trade.
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Nah Carrasco has almost identical projections, is controlled for two more years, and will make about the same amount of money. Those two are about as close in trade value as you can get.
 
nsacpi said:
I think it was a fair trade.

In another thread I advocated offering Newcomb plus Wentz for Paxton. Which I think is a little light. It would have been a decent opening bid. I hope we at least checked in with the M's.

Why you trying to trade Gohara? I think we would be selling him cheap.
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I'd be dancing in the streets if a similar deal nets Carrasco. Ideally AA could find a way to make it happen with Fried, Wentz, and another piece, and then turn around and make something involving Newk and Peralta happen. I'd be perfectly fine with replacing Newk with Gohara in the rotation right away - especially when you've upgraded the top of it.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I think you and I just have different valuations on our own prospects. I think a Newcomb/Wentz package is right on par with what the Yankees just gave up. I don't see Swanson as being anything more than, at best, a 45 FV guy with some back of the rotation potential. I'd rate Wentz a good bit higher than that. I'd probably take Sheffield over Newcomb on the top end, but I think Wentz over Swanson/Williams would even out the value to a certain extent.

As far as Gohara goes, its pretty difficult to pick which prospect I'd like to send from our high end crop. I like Anderson/Gohara/Touki/Soroka/Wright all about the same. So at some point it is splitting hairs, but if I had to send one it'd either be Anderson or Gohara. I just picked Gohara because he currently has the most risk attached to him. I know the upside is there and you could probably talk me in to sending Anderson (or maybe Wright), but if we can get similar value out of Gohara then right now that is where I'm at.
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Wentz is a 45. Soroka and Sheffield are 55s. Anderson and Touki are 50s, if we are splitting hairs I would value Anderson a little more. Those are my valuations.
 
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nsacpi said:
Higher than Toussaint. I know FG has both as FV 50 players. But I think FG is simply wrong there.
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Yeah I think a good value comp for Sheffield is either Wright or Anderson. A top 35ish pitcher with a 55 FV.

Personally, that is pretty close to how I value Toussaint. But I understand that industry consensus seems a bit lower, which is why I probably wouldn't include him in any potential deals.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Yeah I think a good value comp for Sheffield is either Wright or Anderson. A top 35ish pitcher with a 55 FV.

Personally, that is pretty close to how I value Toussaint. But I understand that industry consensus seems a bit lower, which is why I probably wouldn't include him in any potential deals.
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Among our pitching prospects, I'd put Sheffield between Soroka and Anderson.
 
nsacpi said:
Wentz is a 45. Soroka and Sheffield are 55s. Anderson and Touki are 50s. Those are my valuations.
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Yeah for me I have Soroka as a fringe 55/60. Anderson and Wright as firm 55s. Touki as a fringe 50/55. Gohara as a firm 50.

I have Wentz and Wilson as 50s, but on the lower end of the 50 scale. The rest of our guys (Allard, Muller, Beck, Tarnok, Ynoa) I have at 45 or lower.

I usually like Fangraphs and their valuations. Wentz and Wilson are both top 125 guys. I'm not even sure Swanson would make their top 200. He's just more of a fringey type of guy. Maybe I'm selling him short, but there really aren't that many reliable evaluations of him out there.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Nah Carrasco has almost identical projections, is controlled for two more years, and will make about the same amount of money. Those two are about as close in trade value as you can get.
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So one top prospect and two non top 10's, nah i dont think so.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
[TW]1064657502896381953[/TW]

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If this is true, then Haniger becomes the guy that we should start focusing on to fill our corner outfield spot. Its going to cost us something that hurts. Really really badly. But I think its a move that you have to at least explore. Maybe Dipoto is a quantity over quality type of guy and we can end up getting really good value without losing multiple top guys from our system.
 
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