2018 Offseason And Targets

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BeanieAntics said:
Yeah for me I have Soroka as a fringe 55/60. Anderson and Wright as firm 55s. Touki as a fringe 50/55. Gohara as a firm 50.

I have Wentz and Wilson as 50s, but on the lower end of the 50 scale. The rest of our guys (Allard, Muller, Beck, Tarnok, Ynoa) I have at 45 or lower.

I usually like Fangraphs and their valuations. Wentz and Wilson are both top 125 guys. I'm not even sure Swanson would make their top 200. He's just more of a fringey type of guy. Maybe I'm selling him short, but there really aren't that many reliable evaluations of him out there.
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You may be right about Swanson. I do tend to weight AAA performance a bit more than most people.
 
With respect to Paxton v Carrasco, I'll cut and paste what I wrote about them in another thread.

James Paxton has put up WAR of 3.5, 4.6, and 3.8 in the past 3 seasons. Steamer really likes him and projects him at 4.4 in 2019, which would be his age 30 season. He has two seasons of arb control left. I would project him for a total of 8 WAR over those two years. He will make 18-20M in those two seasons, or the market price for 2 wins. So surplus value equivalent to 6 WAR.

Carlos Carrasco has put up WAR of 2.5, 5.5 and 5.3 the last three seasons. Steamer has him at 4.6 in 2019, when he'll be 32. I would expect him to generate 8 WAR over the next two seasons. His 2019 salary is 9M and there is a club option for 9.5 in 2020. Expected surplus value about 6.
 
Pache, Wilson, Wentz, and Jenista for Haniger (About 95 million in surplus value). Would that get it done? If it would, would you pull the trigger on that deal?

Here is the pitching heavy package: Anderson, Gohara, Wilson, and Beck (About 105 million in surplus value). Same questions. If this gets it done, would you prefer this deal?
 
nsacpi said:
With respect to Paxton v Carrasco, I'll cut and paste what I wrote about them in another thread.

James Paxton has put up WAR of 3.5, 4.6, and 3.8 in the past 3 seasons. Steamer really likes him and projects him at 4.4 in 2019, which would be his age 30 season. He has two seasons of arb control left. I would project him for a total of 8 WAR over those two years. He will make 18-20M in those two seasons, or the market price for 2 wins. So surplus value equivalent to 6 WAR.

Carlos Carrasco has put up WAR of 2.5, 5.5 and 5.3 the last three seasons. Steamer has him at 4.6 in 2019, when he'll be 32. I would expect him to generate 8 WAR over the next two seasons. His 2019 salary is 9M and there is a club option for 9.5 in 2020. Expected surplus value about 6.
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Yeah lol... When I looked both of their projections/contracts up I was actually shocked at how similar the two were in value. Its not common where you can find two players who have numbers that so closely align with each other.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Pache, Wilson, Wentz, and Jenista for Haniger (About 95 million in surplus value). Would that get it done? If it would, would you pull the trigger on that deal?

Here is the pitching heavy package: Anderson, Gohara, Wilson, and Beck (About 105 million in surplus value). Same questions. If this gets it done, would you prefer this deal?
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I'll say this about Haniger. I'm generally reluctant to give a lot of weight to a single breakout season. Unless there is an outstanding track record in the minors and the player is very young (like Acuna). Haniger was 27 last year. Steamer projects him at 2.8 WAR next season, which seems pretty reasonable to me. He has 4 more years of contractual control. I would expect him to generate about 11 WAR during this period. Surplus value is going to be around 7 WAR (or 65M if you prefer to think in $ terms). That's how I would value the guy. So for me Anderson and Wentz plus maybe a little more is all I offer.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
Pache, Wilson, Wentz, and Jenista for Haniger (About 95 million in surplus value). Would that get it done? If it would, would you pull the trigger on that deal?

Here is the pitching heavy package: Anderson, Gohara, Wilson, and Beck (About 105 million in surplus value). Same questions. If this gets it done, would you prefer this deal?
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I'd do that but i think they'd want back one of our top pitching prospects: Touki, Wright, Anderson or Soroka. Hard to see how a deal gets done without one of them in it.
 
nsacpi said:
I'll say this about Haniger. I'm generally reluctant to give a lot of weight to a single breakout season. Unless there is an outstanding track record in the minors and the player is very young (like Acuna). Haniger was 27 last year. Steamer projects him at 2.8 WAR next season, which seems pretty reasonable to me. He has 4 more years of contractual control. I would expect him to general about 11 WAR during this period. Surplus value is going to be around 7 WAR. That's how I would value the guy. So for me Anderson and Wentz plus maybe a little more is all I offer.
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You expect him to make 40 million over that time frame? Arb projections are usually my weak point when it comes to this, so maybe you're right. That seems like it'd be a lot though. If he is projected to make 40 million over that time frame, then yeah 70-80 million is about all I'd do for him as well.
 
The Braves could have easily beaten that package and still won the trade from a value perspective.

If they really wanted a “frontline starter” they could have had Paxton today.
 
BeanieAntics said:
You expect him to make 40 million over that time frame? Arb projections are usually my weak point when it comes to this, so maybe you're right. That seems like it'd be a lot though. If he is projected to make 40 million over that time frame, then yeah 70-80 million is about all I'd do for him as well.
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I'm going by the rule that players get paid half their value during their arb years. So figure he generates 7.5 WAR. Gets paid at half the going rate of 9-10M per win (less the first arb year, more then third, but roughly players get paid half their market value during their arb years...if you want to get more fancy you need to consider that power hitters get overpaid by the arb process).
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves could have easily beaten that package and still won the trade from a value perspective.

If they really wanted a “frontline starter” they could have had Paxton today.
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Yeah I think the package was light as well. I'm still sort of glad they didn't go get a SP, but seeing what the Yankees paid for it... It would have been tough for me not to beat that offer.
 
I’m wondering if AA has his sights set on somebody else that’s why he didn’t go after Paxton. That offer would have been an easy pill to swallow to get a frontline starter.
 
Hudson2 said:
I’m wondering if AA has his sights set on somebody else that’s why he didn’t go after Paxton. That offer would have been an easy pill to swallow to get a frontline starter.
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At this point, I'd be highly disappointed if we went after a frontline starter and didn't get value as good as the Yankees just got. Unless AA already has something in the works, I think this trade makes it less likely that we'll trade for a SP.
 
I like the trade as a tone setter for the offseason as I believe the “acquirer” got the better end of the deal.

Let’s see AA do the same for a corner OF. Haniger would obviously be a great get.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves could have easily beaten that package and still won the trade from a value perspective.

If they really wanted a “frontline starter” they could have had Paxton today.
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Agreed we could have easily beaten this trade and done well but I'm hopeful that AA has correctly identified OF/C, etc... as more pressing needs and wants to make sure he has the prospect capital to get what he wants in those areas before evaluating whether he has the resources to additionally add the luxury of a bigger name SP
 
BeanieAntics said:
At this point, I'd be highly disappointed if we went after a frontline starter and didn't get value as good as the Yankees just got. Unless AA already has something in the works, I think this trade makes it less likely that we'll trade for a SP.
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Either AA has another “frontline starter” lined up for equal or better value, or he isn’t really shopping that hard for one.

I’m hoping he isn’t looking to spend many resources on a SP, which is why he went after Gausman at the deadline.
 
You also never know if a GM just sells out for one prospect because he just loves that prospect... maybe the M's just valued Sheffield a ton higher than most
 
Enscheff said:
Either AA has another “frontline starter” lined up for equal or better value, or he isn’t really shopping that hard for one.

I’m hoping he isn’t looking to spend many resources on a SP, which is why he went after Gausman at the deadline.
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I'm almost wondering if he isn't shopping... would be in line with the misdirection he's exhibited thus far
 
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