2018 Offseason And Targets

[zbhargrove]

Maybe you're holding on to his pedigree, but I see a dude who walks too many guys and is already 27 without any real success to date.

And maybe you're projecting our prospects into fantasies.... if they turn into Gausman, that's considered a success... I hope you realize that...

Last 3 seasons fWAR:

3.0
2.5
2.3

you realize that is success for a pitcher in his 25,26,27 year seasons, right?

Troll gonna troll

 

[dak]

On a bang for the buck basis it has been my view Suzuki and McCann were our best options. Going economical at catcher (or any position for that matter where there is the opportunity to make a below market signing) improves our ability to pursue bigger upgrades elsewhere.

McCann is a solid option for us if Maldonado and Ramos don't work out. I'd have to assume he will sign for a 1 year deal . . . and will also be inclined to wait on our decision to come back home.

From what I can see, McCann is a slight defensive upgrade from Suzuki and not much of an offensive drop-off . . .

Suzuki last 3 yrs vs RHP: 262 / 324 / 426
McCann last 3 yrs vs RHP: 241 / 325 / 421

 

[nsacpi]

Okay... I guess I saw your 1 and 2 options as both happening.... therefore wasn't envisioning Peralta and then something like Carrasco, etc... I read it as basically Greinke and Harper then done but I see they are separate possibilities now.

There are other scenarios beyond the two I mentioned. Saving $ and prospects in filling catcher gives us a lot of flexibility. I'm not singling out catcher here. My point is getting good value with any signing opens things up elsewhere. It might be we can get good value with a higher rate catcher like Ramos.

 

[zbhargrove]

My order of preference (not even including Realmuto because I'm not overpaying):

Ramos
Grandal
Gomes
Maldonado
McCann

I don't want McCann... I think we're holding onto nostalgia wanting him.

 

[zbhargrove]

There are other scenarios beyond the two I mentioned. Saving $ and prospects in filling catcher gives us a lot of flexibility.

I just think we can do much better at catcher without spending a whole lot.... Ramos would be a massive offensive upgrade and shouldn't hurt terribly cost wise

 

[CrazyTrain]

And maybe you're projecting our prospects into fantasies.... if they turn into Gausman, that's considered a success... I hope you realize that...

Last 3 seasons fWAR:

3.0
2.5
2.3

you realize that is success for a pitcher in his 25,26,27 year seasons, right?

Troll gonna troll

He's still hardly above average and won't get us over the top. Again, I'd rather have given the innings to other pitchers.

 

[zbhargrove]

He's still hardly above average and won't get us over the top. Again, I'd rather have given the innings to other pitchers.

those pitchers who will be lucky to have anywhere near the same success you mean?

 

[Enscheff]

For some reason I get the feeling we might be one of the teams in on Sonny Gray. I don't like the probably $9+ million salary he'll get in arbitration or the fact that he's been a pretty mediocre pitcher the past couple years. But on the upside he wouldn't cost much in terms of prospects and is a guy that there's a chance of catching lightning in a bottle with. I wouldn't do it but I think the Braves have always liked Gray.

Agreed. If the Braves are truly set on adding a "frontline starter", Gray represents a poor man's version of a such a guy and should be attainable for decent value.

I would just hate to see Paxton go to the Yanks for good value, then Gray cast off to the Braves for market value. That would represent a poor series of moves for AA and the Braves. If they were willing to pay for Gray, they should have just paid for Paxton and gotten a true difference maker.

 

[Enscheff]

Would be super dumb. We already did a dumb thing by bringing in Gausman to a crowded rotation. Getting another "ho-hum" rotation arm would be a waste of resources.

Another pearl of wisdom here folks!

 

[Enscheff]

MLB pipeline has Sheffield at #31, in between Soroka (#20) and Anderson (#34)

BA in September had Sheffield at #22, in between Soroka (#17) and Anderson (#35)

FG is a little out of step, rating Sheffield at a FV of 50, versus 55 for Soroka and Anderson. Doesn't mean they are wrong, although my view aligns more with the MLB pipeline and BA view. Of course, the unknowable is how the M's front office rate the 3.

I'll stick with FG's current rating over MLB Pipeline's current rating and BA's ranking from back in September.

Regardless, Sheffield is not a "55/60" as claimed in the quote I responded to.

 

[nsacpi]

I'll stick with FG's current rating over MLB Pipeline's current rating and BA's ranking from back in September.

Regardless, Sheffield is not a "55/60" as claimed in the quote I responded to.

I checked Sickels. I think he also has Sheffield in between Soroka and Anderson.

I love FG. And I think it's great to see differences of opinion about prospects. There shouldn't be unanimity. But FG has a bias we all know about when it comes to Braves prospects.

I agree Sheffield is not a 55/60. But he aint a 50 either. Not if Soroka and Anderson are 55s.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Agreed. If the Braves are truly set on adding a "frontline starter", Gray represents a poor man's version of a such a guy and should be attainable for decent value.

I would just hate to see Paxton go to the Yanks for good value, then Gray cast off to the Braves for market value. That would represent a poor series of moves for AA and the Braves. If they were willing to pay for Gray, they shouls have just paid for Paxton and gotten a true difference maker.

This is something that I'm pretty worried about. If we go after a frontline starter, its going to be difficult to find a comparable pitcher for a price as low as the Yankees paid. A lot of people have proposed that Anthopoulos is setting his sights higher, but I think that is kind of a bad idea too (unless he gets an incredible deal). Is it more preferable to spend market value on a 5 win pitcher or to spend 75% of market value on a 4 win pitcher? In that circumstance, give me the 4 win pitcher every day of the week.

 

[Enscheff]

I checked Sickels. I think he also has Sheffield in between Soroka and Anderson.

I love FG. And I think it's great to see differences of opinion about prospects. There shouldn't be unanimity. But FG has a bias we all know about when it comes to Braves prospects.

I agree Sheffield is not a 55/60. But he aint a 50 either. Not if Soroka and Anderson are 55s.

From: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-now-have-a-second-ace/

"there’s a large group of evaluators that thinks Sheffield’s future will be in the bullpen."

I've seen no mention anywhere that any group of evaluators think there is any real risk of Soroka or Anderson ending up in the BP. All non-FG prospect sites have a systemic flaw in the way they rank prospects based on risk, and rank them too heavily based on ultimate upside.

FG has done the legwork to determine how much value prospects end up being worth, and rank accordingly. They are, without question, the best publicly available prospect source currently in existence.

I'll stick with them rather than the hacks who hand out 100 FV 50s to every draft class, or think Allard is still valuable.

 

[Enscheff]

This is something that I'm pretty worried about. If we go after a frontline starter, its going to be difficult to find a comparable pitcher for a price as low as the Yankees paid. A lot of people have proposed that Anthopoulos is setting his sights higher, but I think that is kind of a bad idea too (unless he gets an incredible deal). Is it more preferable to spend market value on a 5 win pitcher or to spend 75% of market value on a 4 win pitcher? In that circumstance, give me the 4 win pitcher every day of the week.

I think it was simple: The Ms like Sheffield better than whatever MLB-ready arm AA offered (probably Fried or Newk).

I'm guessing the same group of pitchers will be offered to the Indians, and if they bite, great. If not, that's fine. I do, however, cringe a bit at the thought of the Indians getting Fried into their system and turning him into a monster.

We saw AA refuse to overpay for Archer, and instead pivot to a better value play with Gausman. I am confident we will see him do the same this offseason as well, and I'm hopeful the miss on Paxton shows that he doesn't see the need to add a "frontline starter" as glaring as a lot of the posters around here see it.

 

[striker42]

Lets remember that Paxton is not the first time the M's have overvalued a Yankee prospect.

 

[nsacpi]

All non-FG prospect sites have a systemic flaw in the way they rank prospects based on risk, and rank them too heavily based on ultimate upside.

Maybe. But the question we are discussing is the relative value of three pitchers. Systemic grade inflation is not relevant when looking at how 3 players are ranked relative to each other.

 

[Enscheff]

Maybe. But the question we are discussing is the relative value of three players. Systemic grade inflation is not relevant when look at how 3 players are ranked.

It is when they incorrectly value the risk of that pitcher becoming a BP arm.

 

[Enscheff]

believe so...they had two openings in their rotation...one is now filled...Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, CC and Corbin?

There had been some thought they would go after Corbin and Happ. Now Happ is probably a backup plan.

Everything I had read suggested the plan for the Yanks was to:

1. Trade for a SP
2. Sign a FA SP
3. Unload Sonny

They have just executed Step 1 about as competently as possible. Expect to see Step 2 and 3 happen before 2019.

 

[nsacpi]

I think it was simple: The Ms like Sheffield better than whatever MLB-ready arm AA offered (probably Fried or Newk).

I'm guessing the same group of pitchers will be offered to the Indians, and if they bite, great. If not, that's fine. I do, however, cringe a bit at the thought of the Indians getting Fried into their system and turning him into a monster.

We saw AA refuse to overpay for Archer, and instead pivot to a better value play with Gausman. I am confident we will see him do the same this offseason as well, and I'm hopeful the miss on Paxton shows that he doesn't see the need to add a "frontline starter" as glaring as a lot of the posters around here see it.

This could be what happened. I would not have offered Soroka as part of a package for Paxton or Carrasco. Anderson maybe.

 

[Enscheff]

This could be what happened. I would not have offered Soroka as part of a package for Paxton or Carrasco. Anderson maybe.

I wouldn't sell low on an injured Soroka for anyone right now. It would be a poor use of resources. No team is going to value him at his peak value until they see him prove himself healthy.

I don't think Anderson is the type of MLB-ready player the Indians/Ms will be looking for. The Ms got Mallex and Sheff, and are keeping Haniger, so they are clearly shooting for a 1-2 year rebuild. The Indians are in the middle of their contention window, so they will be looking for guys like Newk and Fried...and hopefully over valuing those guys.