2018 Offseason And Targets

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clvclv said:
Max Fried ain't getting you Bauer - unless you're also including Inciarte, Wright, and another 40-45 FV prospect, and you know that.
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I haven't run the numbers on a Bauer trade, but I wouldn't include Inciarte. I'm against trading any of our MLB starting position players. But I'd do an expensive Bauer trade before I did a Fried/Allard deal for Bumgarner in a heartbeat though. Bauer is going to be expensive because he should be expensive. Bumgarner should be worth ~10 million in surplus value and I'm not gonna pay 30 million to get that.
 
BeanieAntics said:
That is fair, but we also have Fried for at least 5 more seasons. If we trade for Bumgarner then we have exactly one season to extract value from him. If we don't, then we are losing a lot of potential value.

Like I said, trade Fried for a pitcher if you want to. But trade him for a guy who is a clear upgrade and has a better long term outlook.
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That's just it - recouping the potential value comes from the compensation pick you get when you let Bumgarner walk next winter.

Fried's potential is great - it's just kinda wasted with the Braves right now because of the volume. The hope is that you catch lightning in a bottle this year with MadBum, then get an arm with Fried's upside in the 2020 draft that you have 3 years from now when you don't have so many ready arms and the international penalties and lower draft slots really start sapping the amount of talent in the system.
 
Southcack77 said:
Kind of seeing what you want to see there with Newcomb and Fried.

Walks per 9:

Fried 2018 5.3
Newcomb 2017 5.1
Newcomb 2018 4.4
Fried 2017 4.1

Fried struggled with walks in the minors as well.

Newk has also produced a solid half season of baseball and we've seen him dominate the Dodgers and Red Sox on the right day and flirt with no-hitters.

I think it's a little weird that people have concluded that Fried is good and Newk expendable and frankly the Josh Hader stuff is more than a little weird.
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That is why I said Newcomb when he first got called up. We're also talking about 100 innings of 5+ BB/9 vs. 33 innings of 5+ BB/9. Fried struggled with walks in the minors, but not to the extent that Newcomb did. The difference is that Newcomb has just now shown some slight improvements in his control after being pretty wild his whole minor league career (aka right around a 5 BB/9). Fried had 33 bad innings after being less wild his whole minor league career. He's been right around a 4 BB/9 since he has been with the Braves.
 
clvclv said:
That's just it - recouping the potential value comes from the compensation pick you get when you let Bumgarner walk next winter.

Fried's potential is great - it's just kinda wasted with the Braves right now because of the volume. The hope is that you catch lightning in a bottle this year with MadBum, then get an arm with Fried's upside in the 2020 draft that you have 3 years from now when you don't have so many ready arms and the international penalties and lower draft slots really start sapping the amount of talent in the system.
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That compensation pick will probably fall after pick 50 and those picks are worth less than 5 million in surplus value. It doesn't really make up for a 20 million dollar value delta in your proposed Bumgarner deal.

Like I said, maybe you have an argument as to why we should trade Fried. I haven't really thought it through. But if I came to the conclusion that we should, it would not be for Bumgarner. It would have to be for a pitcher that had more long term value or was a slam dunk for the 2019 season.

Edit: Plus it should be said that offering a QO to Bumgarner is anything but a sure thing. There is a good chance that he doesn't pitch well enough to justify offering him an 18 million+ dollar deal after 2019. So its sketchy that you'd be able to recoup any of the lost value at all.
 
BeanieAntics said:
That is why I said Newcomb when he first got called up. We're also talking about 100 innings of 5+ BB/9 vs. 33 innings of 5+ BB/9. Fried struggled with walks in the minors, but not to the extent that Newcomb did. The difference is that Newcomb has just now shown some slight improvements in his control after being pretty wild his whole minor league career (aka right around a 5 BB/9). Fried had 33 bad innings after being less wild his whole minor league career. He's been right around a 4 BB/9 since he has been with the Braves.
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You're using sample size as sword and a shield here.

Newk in 260+ MLB innings has a walk rate of 4.7. It's was 4.4 in 160+ IP last year. It is trending down. the peripherals were actually slightly better in the second half of 2018, but his luck reversed itself. He went from well above league average in BABIP to slightly below average in that stat and it spiked his ERA while his FIP actually decreased.

Fried in 60 MLB IP has a walk rate of 4.8. It trended up this year. his minor league track record of only being a 4bb/9 guy is guidance, but it's not longer necessarily predictive in comparison to major league innings.

Both guys might become something. Maybe they're the same guy. I don't really understand valuing Fried much higher than Newk. It doesn't make much sense to me.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
That compensation pick will probably fall after pick 50 and those picks are worth less than 5 million in surplus value. It doesn't really make up for a 20 million dollar value delta in your proposed Bumgarner deal.

Like I said, maybe you have an argument as to why we should trade Fried. I haven't really thought it through. But if I came to the conclusion that we should, it would not be for Bumgarner. It would have to be for a pitcher that had more long term value or was a slam dunk for the 2019 season.
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And I'll likely never do enough with the numbers to get that nit-picky with it - not going to argue the values. More about the fact that the Giants are likely to value Fried and Allard higher than anyone else, and we just don't have much need for either at this point. Possibly enough so that they'd move Bumgarner now instead of waiting until the deadline like they probably should. Maybe he bounces back better than he's projected to and you get a steal, maybe not - but if you want him at the deadline you don't even get that compensation pick to help justify what you give up for him. Do the numbers and values line up? Of course not - I get that it's an overpay - and am sure you're right about the valuations - it's just that I don't think they're nearly as important when you're talking about the 10th-12th rotation options you currently have. AA just happens to be in a position to overpay right now, and it'd be much better to overpay with the guys much further down the list IMO.

Just don't think keeping ALL these arms is very smart - keep the 4-6 you're most sold on, and move the others since they're so susceptible to injury, even if it's for a chance to get arms to replace them in a few years when you'll need them. The compensation pick for Bumgarner may well be in the 50s - that doesn't mean you can't take an arm with your higher pick and a position player with the compensation pick (or even an "extra" arm).
 
I wonder if we could get Cano, Haniger and Díaz for Teheran and Wright, then flip Cano to the Yankees with a prospect and Gohara for Gray? So, the players can be changed around in return but you get the concept. It seems like the Mariners aren’t gonna deal without including Cano. Any ideas?
 
Let's say the rotation is Folty, Julio, Gaus, Newk and one of Soroka/Touki/Wright/Gohara.

LH's out of the pen are Biddle, Venters and Minter. Where does Fried fit here? Thats where you use him in a trade to improve the ML roster. Fried/Allard for Bumgarner would be a great move by the Braves. Unless the Braves are making Fried their Andrew Miller, not sure where he fits on the Braves which is why you dangle him for ML help.
 
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Southcack77 said:
You're using sample size as sword and a shield here.

Newk in 260+ MLB innings has a walk rate of 4.7. It's was 4.4 in 160+ IP last year. It is trending down. the peripherals were actually slightly better in the second half of 2018, but his luck reversed itself. He went from well above league average in BABIP to slightly below average in that stat and it spiked his ERA while his FIP actually decreased.

Fried in 60 MLB IP has a walk rate of 4.8. It trended up this year. his minor league track record of only being a 4bb/9 guy is guidance, but it's not longer necessarily predictive in comparison to major league innings.

Both guys might become something. Maybe they're the same guy. I don't really understand valuing Fried much higher than Newk. It doesn't make much sense to me.
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I'm not trying to **** on Newk. I'm higher on Newk than most people around here. And there was a reason why my original post specifically compared him to "Newk when he first got called up"... I'm well aware that Newk improved this year and his BB/9 is trending in the right direction. What I'm saying is that it is more useful to use Fried's minor league career to predict his future BB/9 than it is to use 33 innings in 2018 or 26 innings in 2017. Because of the sample associated with Fried's major league stints, I'm not sure whether to expect 5.00 BB/9 or a 4.00 BB/9 next year. But the statement that I'm arguing against was that "Fried has no idea where the ball is going"... I don't think its fair to infer that after 33 innings.
 
clvclv said:
And I'll likely never do enough with the numbers to get that nit-picky with it - not going to argue the values. More about the fact that the Giants are likely to value Fried and Allard higher than anyone else, and we just don't have much need for either at this point. Possibly enough so that they'd move Bumgarner now instead of waiting until the deadline like they probably should. Maybe he bounces back better than he's projected to and you get a steal, maybe not - but if you want him at the deadline you don't even get that compensation pick to help justify what you give up for him. Do the numbers and values line up? Of course not - I get that it's an overpay - and am sure you're right about the valuations - it's just that I don't think they're nearly as important when you're talking about the 10th-12th rotation options you currently have. AA just happens to be in a position to overpay right now, and it'd be much better to overpay with the guys much further down the list IMO.

Just don't think keeping ALL these arms is very smart - keep the 4-6 you're most sold on, and move the others since they're so susceptible to injury, even if it's for a chance to get arms to replace them in a few years when you'll need them. The compensation pick for Bumgarner may well be in the 50s - that doesn't mean you can't take an arm with your higher pick and a position player with the compensation pick (or even an "extra" arm).
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Its fine if you don't mind overpaying, but its still unnecessary. Once again I think you make a fine argument for why you should perhaps think about consolidating some of these arms into one pitcher, but I don't buy into the argument that the pitcher needs to be Bumgarner. We probably do need to move some of the arms further down the pecking order, but we shouldn't be move them just for the sake of doing it. Its not smart teambuilding. If you want to move them, find a trade where the value lines up correctly, even if you have to pay a little more.

Put it this way, I'd rather pay 1000 dollars for a 1000 dollar TV than pay 300 dollars for a 100 dollar TV.
 
Heyward said:
Let's say the rotation is Folty, Julio, Gaus, Newk and one of Soroka/Touki/Wright/Gohara.

LH's out of the pen are Biddle, Venters and Minter. Where does Fried fit here? Thats where you use him in a trade to improve the ML roster. Fried/Allard for Bumgarner would be a great move by the Braves. Unless the Braves are making Fried their Andrew Miller, not sure where he fits on the Braves which is why you dangle him for ML help.
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Once again, sure let's trade Fried. But convince me why we should trade Fried and Allard for a 10 million dollar asset when we could trade them for a 30 million dollar asset.

It has nothing to do with wanting to keep Fried when he has no place on the roster. It has everything to do with wanting to maximize whatever return we get for him.
 
What is this Bumgarner thirst-circle? Why does anyone want him at any cost greater than free?
 
Southcack77 said:
You're using sample size as sword and a shield here.

Newk in 260+ MLB innings has a walk rate of 4.7. It's was 4.4 in 160+ IP last year. It is trending down. the peripherals were actually slightly better in the second half of 2018, but his luck reversed itself. He went from well above league average in BABIP to slightly below average in that stat and it spiked his ERA while his FIP actually decreased.

Fried in 60 MLB IP has a walk rate of 4.8. It trended up this year. his minor league track record of only being a 4bb/9 guy is guidance, but it's not longer necessarily predictive in comparison to major league innings.

Both guys might become something. Maybe they're the same guy. I don't really understand valuing Fried much higher than Newk. It doesn't make much sense to me.
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I think Fried has better stuff than Newk, but I also think most people view Fried as better because they've seen less of him. The fact of the matter is that 4.0+ walk rate is flat out awful no matter how you look at it. For reference, Bumgarner has NEVER had a season (or stop) over 3 in his career at any level. Neither Newk or Fried has never had a stop at any level where they have been under 3. Fried has a career 4.8 and Newk 4.5. Those. Numbers. Are. Putrid.

I'm telling you, we need to deal those two while they still have potential value, because once the potential becomes reality, there won't be much value.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
I'm not trying to **** on Newk. I'm higher on Newk than most people around here. And there was a reason why my original post specifically compared him to "Newk when he first got called up"... I'm well aware that Newk improved this year and his BB/9 is trending in the right direction. What I'm saying is that it is more useful to use Fried's minor league career to predict his future BB/9 than it is to use 33 innings in 2018 or 26 innings in 2017. Because of the sample associated with Fried's major league stints, I'm not sure whether to expect 5.00 BB/9 or a 4.00 BB/9 next year. But the statement that I'm arguing against was that "Fried has no idea where the ball is going"... I don't think its fair to infer that after 33 innings.
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Look, a 4.0+ BB/9 DOES mean he doesn't know where the ball is going.

Did you notice the Dodgers literally swinging at nothing those guys were throwing? Don't you think more teams might do that?
 
CrazyTrain said:
I think Fried has better stuff than Newk, but I also think most people view Fried as better because they've seen less of him. The fact of the matter is that 4.0+ walk rate is flat out awful no matter how you look at it. For reference, Bumgarner has NEVER had a season (or stop) over 3 in his career at any level. Neither Newk or Fried has never had a stop at any level where they have been under 3. Fried has a career 4.8 and Newk 4.5. Those. Numbers. Are. Putrid.

I'm telling you, we need to deal those two while they still have potential value, because once the potential becomes reality, there won't be much value.
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Because pitchers never improve their walk rates.....
 
BeanieAntics said:
I'm not trying to **** on Newk. I'm higher on Newk than most people around here. And there was a reason why my original post specifically compared him to "Newk when he first got called up"... I'm well aware that Newk improved this year and his BB/9 is trending in the right direction. What I'm saying is that it is more useful to use Fried's minor league career to predict his future BB/9 than it is to use 33 innings in 2018 or 26 innings in 2017. Because of the sample associated with Fried's major league stints, I'm not sure whether to expect 5.00 BB/9 or a 4.00 BB/9 next year. But the statement that I'm arguing against was that "Fried has no idea where the ball is going"... I don't think its fair to infer that after 33 innings.
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I mean hell Fried's minor league bb rate could be fairly viewed as bad. It's been worse in the majors though I agree that's two separate smallish samples.

I understand your point to be that you would not move years of control of Newk or Fried for one year of Bumgarner, because Bumgarner isn't enough of an upgrade.

I might disagree on Fried. I don't see the fit in Atlanta and I just don't think his market value is tremendous at this point in his career. It would give me heartburn to do it, but I think that shows it's getting close to a proper price. I'm not sure the Giants would see it that way. They probably are going to hold out hope for getting a real prospect.

I would absolutely not move one the 55s for him. Or any 50 position player.
 
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