2018 Offseason And Targets

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Southcack77 said:
You can argue that moving Bumgarner in simply produces depth and all those prospect arms could be efficiently deployed in relief or in spot starts, right?

Maybe one of them could get 80 IPs in a Hader role. Maybe another could get 100 IP as a 6th starter/long man.
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Well, we are talking about trading several pieces of depth for Bumgarner, which is quite different than signing someone at no prospect cost. Plus we have the pitching depth where a lot of those guys are going to serve in that type of role anyway, so I'm not sure how much Bumgarner actually displaces them.
 
Mariners talking with teams about Segura, Diaz, and Cano alone per Rosenthal.

Trading legit assets for a RP doesnt seem smart, but Diaz would transform the bullpen. And you could probably trade/non tender Viz.
 
Southcack77 said:
See, now I would love to hear more about this.

Braves team BABIP against was .278.

The five starters were all well under that.

What's the reasonable baseline for determining how much of that performance is explainable by the Braves defense, how much of it might be the specific skill set of the pitchers, and how much of it was just random variation.

I expect the elected BABIP for all of those guys is closer to .278 than what they actually produced, which could be a major problem for them.

But like to here more. Maybe the whole basis of my thoughts here are wrong.
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I don't have the time to look and most of our guys don't have a large enough sample size to judge anyway, but looking at their career BABIP could help you to see how a pitcher typically does against the average. I also think it's impossible to say how much a defense can effect that number, but just that an elite defensive team SHOULD have a lower BABIP and consequently a lower LOB% as a result of allowing fewer hits than the average defense would. There's a lot of other "further under the hood" stuff like LD% and other batted ball stats that can be viewed to strengthen an opinion, but I'm not going to dig that deep.

I basically agree with you, but add the caveat that an elite defense should produce a lower BABIP as they naturally convert a higher % of outs with BIP. As I said in the first post, I still think we are lower than our defense can support and what's more troublesome is the amount of additional base runners we add from our horrendous walk numbers. Any regression to the mean is amplified by the walks.
 
Southcack77 said:
You can argue that moving Bumgarner in simply produces depth and all those prospect arms could be efficiently deployed in relief or in spot starts, right?

Maybe one of them could get 80 IPs in a Hader role. Maybe another could get 100 IP as a 6th starter/long man.
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Dude, I love this post. Excellent job.
 
I am having a change in my thoughts for this offseason. Let’s not mortgage the future, players or money, for a “ace.” The main reason is we have lots of pitchers. If Folty takes the next step, he’s an ace. We will have Soroka, Glausman, Newk and Touki. I think we can win with that group and we have lots more waiting in the wings. Why dump 3 or 4 of them for somebody like Kluber only to see him get injured or not perform. We would be sick if that happened. So, let’s sign an outfielder and a closer like Britton and a couple other fill ins and let’s see what happens. The main thing is to not get emotional and pull the trigger out of desperation. Another thing I would do, like I have mentioned, is put Teheran in the pen.
 
BeanieAntics said:
So you're suggesting that we sell these guys below their current market value because they might underperform and lower their market value to the number that we're talking about trading them at currently?

Think about that for a second.

You're basically saying: We should sell this 30 million dollar stock for 10 million dollars because the stock might tank! What if in a year the stock is worth 10 million dollars? That'd be terrible!
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Look, no doubt about it, if we can sell those two guys for whatever sort of value you've put on them.... I'm all for that. I really just used Newk/Fried as the arms in my hypothetical trade because I don't like them and don't want to be left holding the bag when the bottom drops out of their value like I think it will (and maybe already has).

The other main difference in your analogy is that you can sell stock basically at any time for the going market value(for the most part) and in baseball you need to not only find someone who has a player you're interested in, you then have to see if they view your guy at the same value as you, or fangraphs or whomever else makes the prognostications that you are using.

You can't just be like "damnit, Newk is still walking everyone and their mom... let's sell him for his new market value of $10 million". I know that you know that's not how it works, at least I hope anyway.

All of this is speculative and speculation has inherent risk... that's when you have to use your F eyes and brain to make a decision on your own.
 
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CrazyTrain said:
Look, no doubt about it, if we can sell those two guys for whatever sort of value you've put on them.... I'm all for that. I really just used Newk/Fried as the arms in my hypothetical trade because I don't like them and don't want to be left holding the bag when the bottom drops out of their value like I think it will (and maybe already has).

The other main difference in your analogy is that you can sell stock basically at any time for the going market value(for the most part) and in baseball you need to not only find someone who has a player you're interested in, you then have to see if they view your guy at the same value as you, or fangraphs or whomever else makes the prognostications that you are using.

You can't just be like "damnit, Newk is still walking everyone and their mom... let's sell him for his new market value of $10 million". I know that you know that's not how it works, at least I hope anyway.

All of this is speculative and speculation has inherent risk... that's when you have to use your F eyes and brain to make a decision on your own.
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Yep, Braves might not be getting the best value in a Newk/Fried for Bum deal but you also need to make trades before their values go down. I like Fried, i like Newk but even if it's for 1 year of Bumgarner plus a comp pick, i do that today, tommorow and next week.
 
I know he's been discussed, but man I'd love Whit Merrifeld for the outfield. I know he's been mostly a second baseman, but he'd be the perfect lead off guy and would allow Acuna to bat 2nd in front of Freeman. He can fill in anywhere in the outfield and even had a few starts at first last season so he could spell Freeman.
 
I would'nt mind the Braves getting Syndergaard and Wilber Flores or Jake Bauer but it isn't gonna bother me if we don't because our rotation is good,young and cheap. And it will get better! We could resign Anibal and maybe look at a closer. Sign Brantley or someone cheaper to platoon with Duvall like Schwarber or Corey Dickerson.
 
CrazyTrain said:
But Sanchez had his best year since 2013 and was ONLY a 2.4 WAR pitcher?

I find it VERY hard to believe that Teheran sticks around or is even moderately effective. If I were him, I'd rather retire than pitch again for Atlanta after the way he was treated in the NLDS last year.

Gausman is a great 4-5 guy, but he's going to be our current #2.

Our best MLB ready pitching prospect is already having shoulder trouble, which is extremely worrisome. No, not the dirt bike, fluke injury variety... the "I don't know what's wrong, but it hurts" variety.

Then we have Newk, who walks everyone in sight.

Then we have Fried, who walks even more batters than Newk.

We'll be lucky to have Newk/Friend combine for the WAR that Bum should have as his floor for next year.

Our rotation is a huge liability that needs to be addressed. Thankfully AA knows this, regardless of what a bunch of message board jockeys think.
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Bumgarner just isn't a good value acquisition if you're talking about giving up Fried+ for him. I'm fine with giving up Fried and then some if we're getting back a real difference maker, or at least someone who projects to greatly out produce our 3-4 (though still don't think it would be the best use of resources when considering the surplus of quality arms in the organization). Acquiring Bumgarner would likely register as a barely forward-lateral move, and when you consider having to relieve potential future/present assets to make said move, it represents a negative value.
 
I guess MB would be ok if it's cheap like Allard or something like that. Newcomb and Swanson for Schwarber and Happ. Schwarber has power and could hit 5th. Happ can play 2nd base and OF and is a switch hitter. Be like a second Camargo.
 
Sherman- Source: #Mariners and #Mets talks intensifying to bring Cano/Diaz to NYM. Still have money, medicals and no trade clauses to work on but Sea is now focused on the Mets. Swarzak/Bruce likely to offer some financial counterweight.
 
Heyward said:
Sherman- Source: #Mariners and #Mets talks intensifying to bring Cano/Diaz to NYM. Still have money, medicals and no trade clauses to work on but Sea is now focused on the Mets. Swarzak/Bruce likely to offer some financial counterweight.
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I have a hard time seeing how this amounts to anything but a terrible deal for the Ms.

Really wish AA could have taken advantage of Dipoto.
 
Enscheff said:
I have a hard time seeing how this amounts to anything but a terrible deal for the Ms.

Really wish AA could have taken advantage of Dipoto.
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Depends what prospects they get back. Kelenic is good and McNeil has been discussed, if they get both of them, thats not a bad return. But if the M's are trading Diaz, AA needs to get Haniger.
 
Heyward said:
Depends what prospects they get back. Kelenic is good and McNeil has been discussed, if they get both of them, thats not a bad return. But if the M's are trading Diaz, AA needs to get Haniger.
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Hard to say, but the same reports that said Haniger isn’t available also said Diaz isn’t available.

Getting 4 years of Mallex and then trading away 4 years of Haniger makes zero sense, but the Ms are pretty dumb.
 
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