2018 Offseason And Targets

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BeanieAntics said:
If the Reds were squarely in a contention window, I'd like this move for them but it feels like its a little too early. However, they clearly got pretty good value in this deal.

I like the Dodger's side too. You shed a good bit of money in the deal, open up a space for Harper, and get two high upside minor league pieces with Downs and Gray. Probably a good deal for both sides, but it seems really odd for the Reds because I still think they are a good ways out from contention.
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I see this trade the same way. The Reds seem like a slight winner here on a valuation basis, but I don't know if I agree with their strategy.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Dude you literally said that the surplus value model is wrong as often as it is right. If that isn't trying to discredit the surplus value model, then I don't know what is. Its also not the first time you've derided it.
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Kinda like your 80% number you threw out there with nothing to back it up. If I wanted to argue that it's useless I'd have looked for the exact number of times it's been wrong and pointed that out. Those numbers change every year because someone does/doesn't get promoted, does/doesn't get hurt, starts/relieves, etc. so you can always go back and say IF he would have had as long a career as projected, he would've gotten there.

The model isn't written in stone is the point. That's OK - nobody expects it to be 100% correct.

Again, you folks seriously need to lighten up. I promise the world won't end the next time someone doesn't live up to your calculator's expectations for whatever reason. I also promise it won't end the next time someone makes a trade that doesn't follow the chart.
 
clvclv said:
Kinda like your 80% number you threw out there with nothing to back it up. If I wanted to argue that it's useless I'd have looked for the exact number of times it's been wrong and pointed that out. Those numbers change every year because someone does/doesn't get promoted, does/doesn't get hurt, starts/relieves, etc. so you can always go back and say IF he would have had as long a career as projected, he would've gotten there.

The model isn't written in stone is the point. That's OK - nobody expects it to be 100% correct.

Again, you folks seriously need to lighten up. I promise the world won't end the next time someone doesn't live up to your calculator's expectations for whatever reason. I also promise it won't end the next time someone makes a trade that doesn't follow the chart.
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Lol... I love it... One minute it's "I agree with it" the next minute its "I don't" when someone points out the bi-polar nature of the comments... you can't even get your thoughts consistent
 
dak said:
I see this trade the same way. The Reds seem like a slight winner here on a valuation basis, but I don't know if I agree with their strategy.
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I think they are more than a slight winner with some $7 mil going their way. I agree with the players not fitting squarely into their window. But they should be a decent team next year.
 
nsacpi said:
I think they are more than a slight winner with some $7 mil going their way. I agree with the players not fitting squarely into their window. But they should be a decent team next year.
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The whole thing is obviously complex, but the trickiest valuation element for me is Jeter Downs. Some of the twitter sound bites on this guy are eye-popping for a guy in the back half of the top 10 on BA's list.
 
This trade was essentially Puig and Wood for Gray and Downs. Kemp for Bailey was essentially a bad contract swap.

That’s a 45+ position play and a 40 pitcher.

If the Braves were after a SP and a cOF, I would have liked to see them get in on that.

Scratch another potential cOF upgrade off the list
 
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dak said:
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I give up on trying to figure Jerry Dipoto out. I think he just does weird things because he is literally a trade fiend. He can't help himself.

If he goes a month without a trade, we could offer Julio for Haniger and he'd probably take it just to avoid trade withdrawals.
 
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