2018 Offseason And Targets

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Hudson2 said:
Reports are that we called and were turned down on Peralta. I have a feeling the price is a little steeper.
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Could be. Might not be later.

If aa holds his cards there will be bargains on the table.

My main issue is that we need the best team not the best resource allocation . A one war cof for 5 million is a deal but we need a three plus war of IMO.

Keeping peralta makes zero sense. If I’m Arizona I’d rather have jenista than peralta and I doubt he’s a mlb player.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The thing is, I've said over and over that, unless the Braves get enough payroll space to make a leap, then they are building for a purgatory type existence - not good enough to win anything, not bad enough to punt and rebuild again.

All this Markakis speculation is exactly the type warning sign that points to a purgatory existence. It's a easy out with no upside based on the likelihood that the franchise fire is being starved due to lack of financial commitment.

The mouthpieces that run the Braves have said several times that the Braves will have a top 10 payroll. The #10 payroll team for 2018, according to BP, was the Cards at $160M. The Braves were 10th worst at $118.3M.
Roster resource currently has them with a 2019 payroll of $115M.

So, either the ownership has lied OR the Braves have up to an estimated $45-$50M left to spend.

Sure, you can argue that they want to hold some payroll space back to make needed in-season moves. But $80M in mid season moves (keep in mind that when mid season moves are made, they often occur after 1/2 the season, and therefore half the comp, has occurred) isn't going to happen.

It doesn't make any sense.

If the Braves have no money and are unlikely to get any, therefore positioning themselves as a true small market revenue club, then they are currently positioning themselves to be the equivalent of Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pitt type franchises, never really good enough to win, get better and keep winning. If they want to escape that fate, like Houston did, then they shouldn't be pulling the trigger on trying to compete this soon and should look to maximize the value of their best veteran players by trading them and becoming worse short term for a better long term.

If the Braves do have money to spend then Markakis isn't an answer. And neither is some fictitious withholding of significant funds for some in season trading opportunity.
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I think any team in the lower half of the payroll distribution (and we are one of those) is going to need some luck plus be very smart about using their prospect capital if they are to have any sort of extended run. We did hit the jackpot on Acuna and Albies. That's gonna help. But AA is always going to have to be very careful to avoid having payroll eaten up by deadweight players. That is the kiss of death for a franchise that isn't in the top half of the payroll distribution. The good news is that right now we have zero deadweight payroll. And have a chance to keep it at zero going forward.
 
Carp said:
How is 12 wins over 4 years very reasonably projected when he's never been a 3 WAR player, but we're not gonna project any progression for Newk?


Nevertheless, I think you'll find the trade value of 2-3 win level players is harder to gauge, especially in a market that's been flooded by 2-3 WAR corner OFers. I mean Camargo has 5 years of control left and is coming off a 3.3 WAR season. Does anyone here honestly feel like we'd be able to extract 100+ million in surplus value if we made him available?
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He was 2.8 last year while playing a decent amount of 1B, where he’s a negative defender (unlike OF), and without which he may have been right at 3.0; projections are forecasting small improvements in bb%, k%, and babip to propel him to the 3.0-3.5 war range. But even if you value him as a 2.5-war player outside of Texas, that’s still right around a reasonable projection for Newcomb (2.5x4 vs 2.0x5).
 
nsacpi said:
I think Newk plus Wilson is a little too much. Newk and Allard would be a fair trade.
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I agree, especially considering—as you mentioned upthread, and which I’d been incorporating into my thinking as well—that Gallo’s likely to see bigger change chunks via arbitration; though there’s some offset there, given pitcher volatility.
 
Carp said:
How is 12 wins over 4 years very reasonably projected when he's never been a 3 WAR player, but we're not gonna project any progression for Newk?


Nevertheless, I think you'll find the trade value of 2-3 win level players is harder to gauge, especially in a market that's been flooded by 2-3 WAR corner OFers. I mean Camargo has 5 years of control left and is coming off a 3.3 WAR season. Does anyone here honestly feel like we'd be able to extract 100+ million in surplus value if we made him available?
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With respect to Camargo, he's had one 3.3 WAR season. Gallo has had 2 seasons at 2.8. Plus more of a pedigree. If Camargo puts up another 3 or higher season, his value will go up a lot.
 
Carp said:
How is 12 wins over 4 years very reasonably projected when he's never been a 3 WAR player, but we're not gonna project any progression for Newk?


Nevertheless, I think you'll find the trade value of 2-3 win level players is harder to gauge, especially in a market that's been flooded by 2-3 WAR corner OFers. I mean Camargo has 5 years of control left and is coming off a 3.3 WAR season. Does anyone here honestly feel like we'd be able to extract 100+ million in surplus value if we made him available?
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If we just took exactly the average of what Gallo has done over his two full seasons and exactly what Newcomb has did last year and used that as their projections, Gallo would still be more valuable 11.2 wins to 9.5. It is very difficult to make Newcomb and Gallo equal value. You'd have to take the absolute most optimistic outlook on Newcomb and an unreasonably bearish outlook on Gallo to get there. We would almost certainly have to add another piece of some value to get him.
 
jpx7 said:
He was 2.8 last year while playing a decent amount of 1B, where he’s a negative defender (unlike OF), and without which he may have been right at 3.0; projections are forecasting small improvements in bb%, k%, and babip to propel him to the 3.0-3.5 war range. But even if you value him as a 2.5-war player outside of Texas, that’s still right around a reasonable projection for Newcomb (2.5x4 vs 2.0x5).
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Yeah this too. It takes a little digging, but if you get into the deep numbers behind Gallo's superficial numbers you can easily see how he could add another half win to his profile. With Newcomb, it basically all comes down to whether or not he can improve his command and if he can pitch well over 30+ starts. So far, he has fewer indicators that would suggest he'll improve dramatically. Certainly not enough to justify projecting him as more than a 2 win pitcher over 5 years.
 
nsacpi said:
With respect to Camargo, he's had one 3.3 WAR season. Gallo has had 2 seasons at 2.8. Plus more of a pedigree. If Camargo puts up another 3 or higher season, his value will go up a lot.
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He was also 1.1 through 80 games of his rookie year where he played more games at SS. You think his value increase from where it is now with a year less of control? Not sure I agree there, unless he improves.
 
Carp said:
He was also 1.1 through 80 games of his rookie year where he played more games at SS. You think his value increase from where it is now with a year less of control? Not sure I agree there, unless he improves.
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I think with Camargo, if you dig a little into his batted ball profile, especially from the left side it looks like he's had some luck.

With Gallo it is a bit the opposite. You look at his BABIP and think he's been a little unlucky.

If those two repeated their 2018 seasons in 2019, you would have to conclude that maybe Camargo was not so lucky and Gallo not so unlucky.
 
Weird aa target of the day. Alex Cobb. They have to eat at least 5 million a year.

I still hate it. I wouldn’t want 4 years of him at 7 million a year. But I keep thinking aa is going to end up with names nobody has linked to him
 
BeanieAntics said:
If it came down to it, which one of these would you prefer if you knew we had these options:

Trade: Newcomb and Wilson for 4 years of Joey Gallo

Trade: Wilson and Allard for 2 years of David Peralta

Trade: Wilson, Wentz, and Derian Cruz for 2 years of Joc Pederson

FA: Sign Nick Markakis to a 1 year 15 million dollar deal.

Of those four options, I think the Markakis option is pretty clearly the least preferable. The Gallo trade would be my number 1 preference, followed by Pederson, then Peralta. And of the trade scenarios, I'm pretty sure that at least one of those packages would be enough to get it done.
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There is no universe where Markakis gets $15M over 1 season...obviously that’s the worst option because it’s a horrible contract.
 
Put me in the anyone but Markakis or Cargo column . Corey Dickerson or Joc Pederson would be fine with me but I'm still want JTR or Grandal because they make our lineup better and the need in LF isn't as urgent. I just don't want Markakis back.
 
elmore80 said:
Put me in the anyone but Markakis or Cargo column . Corey Dickerson or Joc Pederson would be fine with me but I'm still want JTR or Grandal because they make our lineup better and the need in LF isn't as urgent. I just don't want Markakis back.
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The need in the outfield is pretty clearly much more urgent than the need at catcher. Given Flower's framing, we could roll with McCann and Flowers and still have an average catching tandem. If we don't get someone for the cOF, either RF or LF would be an absolute disaster.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Even at 8m or 10m I'd prefer the other three options.
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Not if Newk is used to get JTR or Haniger.

There are a few scenarios where bringing Markakis back for 1 year makes sense.

If Markakis is “the move” to finish the roster then it’s obviously an issue, but I have a hard time believing AA doesn’t have 1-2 big trades primed that are just waiting on other pieces to fall (namely Grandal).
 
BeanieAntics said:
The need in the outfield is pretty clearly much more urgent than the need at catcher. Given Flower's framing, we could roll with McCann and Flowers and still have an average catching tandem. If we don't get someone for the cOF, either RF or LF would be an absolute disaster.
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Having this top of lineup...

Acuna
Realmuto
FF
Donaldson
Albies

Makes the hole in lf/rf easier to fill.
 
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