2018 Offseason And Targets

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Super said:
he was a negative in 2017 on FG, which is all i was going by.
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Nope.

You were looking at his Def number, which is different than his UZR.

An above average defender at 1B is still a negative defensive player overall because how easy the position is. He has positive UZR at 1B which still translates to negative Def overall.
 
Enscheff said:
There have been 28 player-seasons over the last 5 seasons where a guy was labeled as a 1B and accumulated 4+ wins. The defensive ding for being a 1B is so large it requires a wRC+ in the neighborhood of 140 to get that many WAR.

Assuming Hoskins isn't a complete butcher at 1B, I would say there's a good chance he reaches 4 WAR. Projections have him fall just short (3.6), and I wouldn't call it "likely" he is 4+...but I loath arguing semantics (it's what folks do when they have no valid data to back up their assertion) when numbers accurately describe something.
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i think "likely" and "good chance" are quite a bit different. i wouldn't call that semantics. i'm also not sure how i have no data to back up my assertion. i think my assertions on hoskins have been correct.
 
Enscheff said:
Nope.

You were looking at his Def number, which is different than his UZR.

An above average defender at 1B is still a negative defensive player overall because how easy the position is. He has positive UZR at 1B which still translates to negative Def overall.
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right, i didn't say i was looking at UZR, just the negative numbers on FG. i wasn't even sure if FG uses UZR. just that looking at that negative (whatever it is measuring) made me think he wasn't good at 1B.
 
Super said:
he was a negative in 2017 on FG, which is all i was going by.
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That includes the negative adjustment he gets by playing 1B. Overall he's at +1.5 UZR in 300 innings at 1st. Will that hold up? Who knows but either way it's going to be a vast improvement over what he was doing in LF.
 
Super said:
i think "likely" and "good chance" are quite a bit different. i wouldn't call that semantics. i'm also not sure how i have no data to back up my assertion. i think my assertions on hoskins have been correct.
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That's exactly semantics...

se·man·ticDictionary result for semantic
/səˈman(t)ik/Submit
adjective
relating to meaning in language or logic.

See how annoying that is?

One person says 3-4 WAR, one person says 4+ WAR, and then we wait to see who was right.

Much different than arguing in circles over the meanings of "likely" and "good chance" in an attempt to make sure you aren't wrong.

However, I agree, I don't think Hoskins has better than a 50/50 shot at reaching 4+ wins...I would place my money on the under.
 
Enscheff said:
Nope.

You were looking at his Def number, which is different than his UZR.

An above average defender at 1B is still a negative defensive player overall because how easy the position is. He has positive UZR at 1B which still translates to negative Def overall.
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Yep, all Def is is his UZR + his positional adjustment, which at 1st base is -12.5. So if he had a 10 UZR then he would have a -2.5 Def, If I'm thinking about that correctly.
 
Freshmaker said:
Yeah according to Mish neither the Braves nor the Marlins have ever submitted a formal offer to each other. Just have bandied about a few names
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Then why are labeled as being so heavily involved? And why have we been labeled as having ‘35% chance’ over and over by Mish? How can one have any sort of chance, much less the leader in trade rumors, without having even made an offer?
 
BeanieAntics said:
Yep, all Def is is his UZR + his positional adjustment, which at 1st base is -12.5. So if he had a 10 UZR then he would have a -2.5 Def, If I'm thinking about that correctly.
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Yes. Even the best defender at 1B last year, Matt Olson, was a "negative defender".

Speaking of defense. I'm just now seeing that Freeman won a GG this year. Well deserved I might add. And with LeMahieu going to the Yankees that opens it wide open for Albies to get the award in 2019.
 
thewupk said:
Yes. Even the best defender at 1B last year, Matt Olson, was a "negative defender".

Speaking of defense. I'm just now seeing that Freeman won a GG this year. Well deserved I might add. And with LeMahieu going to the Yankees that opens it wide open for Albies to get the award in 2019.
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Baez.
 
I think the one thing we'll be elite at next year is defense. We have plus plus or plus defenders at 6 or 7 different positions (depending on how you view Acuna's defense, long term) and that should go a long way towards benefiting our young staff. In fact, I think that AA is counting on our good defense to help give us an above average staff when most people see it as too young, inexperienced, or just not good.

This is one reason why I'm so pro-Dansby. Or at least pro giving Dansby a really long leash. Having him, Ender, and Ozzie up the middle is a really, really, really good defensive alignment. Freeman and Donaldson are positives at the corners. Flowers is an elite framer. Acuna *should* be an above average defender once he eliminates those ridiculous mental errors. Its kinda ironic, but the only poor defender out there is probably going to be last year's gold glove winner in right field.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I think the one thing we'll be elite at next year is defense. We have plus plus or plus defenders at 6 or 7 different positions (depending on how you view Acuna's defense, long term) and that should go a long way towards benefiting our young staff. In fact, I think that AA is counting on our good defense to help give us an above average staff when most people see it as too young, inexperienced, or just not good.

This is one reason why I'm so pro-Dansby. Or at least pro giving Dansby a really long leash. Having him, Ender, and Ozzie up the middle is a really, really, really good defensive alignment. Freeman and Donaldson are positives at the corners. Flowers is an elite framer. Acuna *should* be an above average defender once he eliminates those ridiculous mental errors. Its kinda ironic, but the only poor defender out there is probably going to be last year's gold glove winner in right field.
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Will remain to be seen. He's been positive 2 of his 4 seasons in Atlanta. I think he will be the lowest guy of the current projected 7 starters though.
 
Hudson2 said:
I don’t understand how we can be called the favorites if we haven’t even made a formal offer?
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It is all speculation until a trade is consummated. Everyone knows that the Marlins should trade JTR. Mish has heard that Florida has talked with ATL, LAD, SD, CIN, etc. No formal offers from any team have been made. However, judging from the conversation / information, Florida likes the proposed prospects from ATL better than the others. Mish is also speculating that Florida likes ATL's so much more that if AA comes back with even a lesser offer, MIA will take it over the other likely offers.

It is not unlike thinking that one team will rebuild even though they have yet to make dump a player.
 
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