2018 Offseason And Targets

[Enscheff]

We have a good outlook for 3B for the future, but not in 2019 without Donaldson. Camargo's best role is as a super utility guy and he adds great depth on the bench. Having him as your starting 3B is not as close to the value of Donaldson, which is obvious. And Riley in AAA does not help us right now.

Grandal is not significantly more valuable than a Flowers/McCann combo. So either way you're spending a good chunk of money simply to improve a spot where you're fine right now.

And I'm just playing your game. Find a comment somebody made that wasn't great, and try to rub it in their face forever.

Acuna's first half: .327 BABIP, .746 OPS...almost exactly as I predicted.

What wasn't correctly predicted was his superhuman ability to improve.

Don't worry, you'll be the next target I hound endlessly now since you tossed your hat in the ring.

 

[Enscheff]

The Grandal and Brantley signings cost 33M this year for about 5.5 expected WAR. It is pretty close in terms of value of what AA got. And a more natural fit in terms of positional needs going into the offseason. Grandal does cost a pick. And Donaldson likely will net one. Plus Grandal and Brantley signed much later than Donaldson. It is a fair criticism that AA maybe didn't anticipate what those guys would ultimately sign for. I suspect their initial asks were quite a bit higher, either in years or AAV.

This is where I think it's completely fair to criticize AA without the benefit of hindsight.

There were many players available to upgrade 3B/Util, and Camargo was already established as a good Util guy or low end regular at 3B. He also had Riley nearly ready. If there was one position AA should have been willing to bargain shop, it should have been 3B/Util.

There were very few options at C and cOF, and the Braves had HUGE holes at those positions. Those were NOT the positions to rely on bargain hunting.

Instead of prioritizing C and cOF, and then bargain hunting at 3B/Util late in the off season as supply/demand dictated he should have, AA allowed his boner for JD force him to prioritize 3B/Util and then bargain hunt at C/cOF as a direct result.

Problem is, there are no bargains to be had at C/cOF, and right now Mous is sitting out there with zero rumors of any interest after Asdrubal signed for Markakis money.

 

[smootness]

Don't worry, you'll be the next target I hound endlessly now since you tossed your hat in the ring.

I'm shaking.

 

[Southcack77]

The Grandal and Brantley signings cost 33M this year for about 5.5 expected WAR. It is pretty close in terms of value of what AA got. And a more natural fit in terms of positional needs going into the offseason. Grandal does cost a pick. And Donaldson likely will net one. Plus Grandal and Brantley signed much later than Donaldson. It is a fair criticism that AA maybe didn't anticipate what those guys would ultimately sign for. I suspect their initial asks were quite a bit higher, either in years or AAV.

I think Brantley/Grandal would have been a perfectly reasonable plan, but I don't think the Braves would do this differently based on what players signed for. I think they found Donaldson to be an MVP candidate available on a one year deal and they very much liked the idea of letting the rest of the market come to them. I think they are largely living out what they game planned.

I think engaging in a Realmuto bidding war would have suggested the opposite.

But I don't know.

I'm not saying their plan is the best. I'm just saying I consider it to be a reasonable plan.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm shaking.

I notice you didn't bother to address the other sentences lol.

This will be fun!

 

[CrazyTrain]

We won the division last year. Obviously that will be tough to repeat, but we're not a rebuilding team. Our window is just opening, but we're still absolutely trying to win now.

Camargo will get plenty of AB this year, and we know he's fine defensively at 3B. We just need to continue to see his bat, and we will. Riley is the future at 3B, but he's not ready and we don't know when he will be. You don't bank on him as your answer, and you certainly don't treat this year as a trial for guys. We're past that stage.

Don't treat this year as a trial for guys? What about the entire rotation after Folty?

 

[Chico]

When you're playing the market, the idea is to look for the bottom (like this past Christmas Eve). The problem with that mentality is you miss out on some good runs if you're always sitting on your cash.

I feel like AA is the ultimate value investor who will make some great trades, but fear will cause him to miss some good ones as well.

 

[smootness]

I notice you didn't bother to address the other sentences lol.

This will be fun!

There was nothing to address. You were wrong.

Just be glad I don't care enough to go find your devastating cornhole trash talk.

 

[smootness]

Don't treat this year as a trial for guys? What about the entire rotation after Folty?

I think there's a difference between using this year as a trial and using young guys because they're your best option. If Riley was our best option at 3B, then put him out there and let's see what he has. But don't make decisions on the pieces you add because of that.

Just like I wouldn't want us to avoid making a clear upgrade at SP just because we needed to see what we have out of Touki or any of the young guys. But if you feel like they give us enough, even with their youth, and you want to use money elsewhere, go for it.

 

[striker42]

Considering every single prospect list is compiled from sources inside actual baseball teams, and they are listed in terms of FV, you're wrong.

There may be teams who value Touki and Sixto similarly, but that isn't what you said.

You said, "Touki is much more valuable because he's already ready"...which is patently incorrect.

I think we're using two different measuring sticks here. You're looking at value strictly from the analytics viewpoint divorced from the realities of the game. And that's a valid viewpoint. From a pure baseball standpoint, it's probably more valid than mine. And I'm not saying Touki has a higher FV than Sixto.

However, the guys pulling the triggers on trades don't base everything on what the stats say. Not even the most analytical minded do that. Baseball is first and foremost a business and the GMs are tasked with keeping the businesses running.

The present ability to contribute has tremendous value. It's much easier to justify to the average fan trading a star player when you receive guys back who contribute quickly. Many GM's also will place greater value on the mitigation of risk than on an elite potential payoff. While FV takes where a player is in terms of development and the risk associated with them into account, a GM that has his job on the line probably isn't valuing guys the same as Fangraphs.

So you are correct that Sixto has more value if you're judging purely in terms of FV. But I am now and have at all points been talking about value in terms of trades. The realities of the business mean that things other than baseball value are considered. They probably shouldn't be, but they are.

 

[Southcack77]

Again, in a vacuum, people were excited about Josh, but mainly because blowing that much money on a one year deal usually means subsequent moves are coming to "go for it".

Signing Josh is completely fine if you went out and got a Kluber type and added a quality OF.

Blowing 3/4 of your off season budget on a 1 year rental on a mediocre team just doesn't make sense, unless you want the draft pick of course. It makes even less sense when you really need to determine if your current 3B can continue to be a 3+ WAR player or your "3B in waiting" can catch on if Camargo under performs.

I can go along with the idea about finding out what Camargo is except I think most everyone in baseball feels like they already know. But that's defendable. I sort of think getting 500 ABs still lets you do that, but ok you think he will have a problem with moving around the diamond and not playing every day. Fair concern.

Holding open a spot for Riley makes no sense to me at all.

 

[50PoundHead]

This whole plan of AAs to sit on all of these pitching prospects could easily backfire on him this year. Last season we saw Soroka come up and dominate for a few starts before hitting the DL with shoulder issues. Gohara went from being a stud, to falling on his ass this past season (for obvious reasons with the family, we'll see if he bounces back)...what if Wright/Touki/Wilson/Anderson/etc. don't take the next step. What if in fact some of them take steps back....

Then we are going into the offseason with even more question marks on our prospects, and AA will have an even harder time making a trade....

I admit, I was very excited when we brought him in as our GM to replace Coppy....now, not so much.,

I'm not saying trades shouldn't have been made, but your logic is circular here. The reason one doesn't prematurely move pitching prospects is that a lot of pitching prospect don't pan out and you need quality replacements. Soroka's and Gohara's issues are why you need ample pitching prospects.

 

[Southcack77]

So we have to wait for somebody to give us great value on a perfect fit? What if it doesn’t come? No team is just gonna give something away, you have to give to get. Not everybody is gonna get held hostage in a trade or FA signing.

If it doesn't come you make do with the short term value that you can find.

That's what limited resources means.

None of the alternatives being discussed would have made the Braves the favorites for the championship. I'm not sure most of them would have made them the favorites in the division. to some degree, that's not in their control.

 

[CrazyTrain]

I think there's a difference between using this year as a trial and using young guys because they're your best option. If Riley was our best option at 3B, then put him out there and let's see what he has. But don't make decisions on the pieces you add because of that.

Just like I wouldn't want us to avoid making a clear upgrade at SP just because we needed to see what we have out of Touki or any of the young guys. But if you feel like they give us enough, even with their youth, and you want to use money elsewhere, go for it.

That's an odd argument that you're making. Basically that you're fine using 2019 as a trial area for our struggling pitchers but not the guy who had more than 3 WAR last season?

Adding Josh says we want to compete in 2019 or want his QO draft pick.

Adding Nick, Mac and not touching the rotation after losing Anibal says we are rebuilding.

That points far more to rebuilding than it does the opposite.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

I'm not saying trades shouldn't have been made, but your logic is circular here. The reason one doesn't prematurely move pitching prospects is that a lot of pitching prospect don't pan out and you need quality replacements. Soroka's and Gohara's issues is why you need ample pitching prospects.

Then you use your #9 and #21 spots to draft more pitchers (which they will probably do anyway because who needs position prospects?)

 

[Southcack77]

That's an odd argument that you're making. Basically that you're fine using 2019 as a trial area for our struggling pitchers but not the guy who had more than 3 WAR last season?

Adding Josh says we want to compete in 2019 or want his QO draft pick.

Adding Nick, Mac and not touching the rotation after losing Anibal says we are rebuilding.

That points far more to rebuilding than it does the opposite.

Signing Donaldson meant that they felt that adding a MVP caliber, right handed bat to the middle of the batting order was a good value.

Nothing about what they've done suggests that they are rebuilding.

 

[Carp]

Can’t be viewded that way. Camargo will have war from multiple positions. Duvall who knows but I suspect will garner points from DH and PH. Plus you might see Duvall and Johan in the same outfield.

It's hard to know how things will shake out. Camargo will absolutely play some OF this year, while it's unlikely Neck makes anywhere close to the same amount of starts as last season. Assuming some sort of time share where Neck starts 60 percent of the games and Duval and Camargo combine for the other 40 percent, I'd feel pretty confident that group would put up 2-3 WAR in the games they start in LF/RF.

 

[CrazyTrain]

Signing Donaldson meant that they felt that adding a MVP caliber, right handed bat to the middle of the batting order was a good value.

Nothing about what they've done suggests that they are rebuilding.

You're right, it's about what they haven't done that suggests they are still rebuilding... which is not address a rotation that features one guy who's had a plus season.

I guess you could split hairs and call it building instead of rebuilding, but clearly there's still a lot we need to improve to be truly competitive and when we are, most of us will likely forget JD was even here except for whatever pitcher we take with his QO pick.

 

[CrazyTrain]

It's hard to know how things will shake out. Camargo will absolutely play some OF this year, while it's unlikely Neck makes anywhere close to the same amount of starts as last season. Assuming some sort of time share where Neck starts 60 percent of the games and Duval and Camargo combine for the other 40 percent, I'd feel pretty confident that group would put up 2-3 WAR in the games they start in LF/RF.

You really think Nick is going to go from playing 162 to around 100? The lowest projection service has him at 137. I'll set the over/under at 140.

I'm beginning to wonder if the JD signing is actually "Swanson insurance" in case Camargo needs to take over that spot full time (or 2B if Albies moves) if Dansby doesn't improve. He's the biggest weakness offensively.

 

[Enscheff]

There was nothing to address. You were wrong.

Just be glad I don't care enough to go find your devastating cornhole trash talk.

I was absolutely correct until he made improvements in the 2nd half. I literally just showed you the stats proving as much. You glossing over them doesn’t change them.

As I said, this will be fun. Thanks for tossing your hat into the ring!