2018 Offseason And Targets

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CrazyTrain said:
You really think Nick is going to go from playing 162 to around 100? The lowest projection service has him at 137. I'll set the over/under at 140.

I'm beginning to wonder if the JD signing is actually "Swanson insurance" in case Camargo needs to take over that spot full time (or 2B if Albies moves) if Dansby doesn't improve. He's the biggest weakness offensively.
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Yes I do. Despite your opinion, the Brave FO isn't dumb. If Neck is starting 150ish games at his age, I'd be very surprised. But it also likely means he would be a starting caliber OF with a WAR in the 1.5-2 range in such a scenario, as the Braves made it a point to seek upgrades at LF before ultimately settling on Neck suggesting they don't believe he'll repeat his 2018 performance). The Braves FO has already stated they want Camargo to play some OF this spring, which clearly suggests they plan on playing him there at times this year. And unless Duvall is washed up, I'd expect he'll get his fair share of playing time as well. All that points to Neck getting significanrly less starts in 2019.
 
CrazyTrain said:
You're right, it's about what they haven't done that suggests they are still rebuilding... which is not address a rotation that features one guy who's had a plus season.

I guess you could split hairs and call it building instead of rebuilding, but clearly there's still a lot we need to improve to be truly competitive and when we are, most of us will likely forget JD was even here except for whatever pitcher we take with his QO pick.
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You are too low on the team, IMO.

They added an All Star / possible MVP candidate to a division leader.

I did think they should improve the OF and add a SP to really go for it, but they look like a playoff contender to me as is.
 
Carp said:
Yes I do. Despite your opinion, the Brave FO isn't dumb. If Neck is starting 150ish games at his age, I'd be very surprised. But it also likely means he would be a starting caliber OF with a WAR in the 1.5-2 range in such a scenario, as the Braves made it a point to seek upgrades at LF before ultimately settling on Neck suggesting they don't believe he'll repeat his 2018 performance). The Braves FO has already stated they want Camargo to play some OF this spring, which clearly suggests they plan on playing him there at times this year. And unless Duvall is washed up, I'd expect he'll get his fair share of playing time as well. All that points to Neck getting significanrly less starts in 2019.
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Makes sense to me. Does it make sense to Snitker? I'm higher on the collective ability of those guys to be decent than most folks it seems. I do prefer an upgrade if they can manage one. I still would have done Brantley for what he signed for.
 
They are talking on MLB XM how this offseason has been a complete bust for the Braves, however it is not AAs fault. It is ownerships pushing for going the cheap route. They are saying AA is not the type of guy to sit back and do nothing...

Probably right, but seriously sucks
 
Chico said:
Someone on Twitter likened the current Braves plan to the Pirates philosophy...Do just enough to be competititve and sell tickets.

I cannot disagree right now.
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Casey Stern said that on Inside Pitch several times about the Braves in the last week.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
They are talking on MLB XM how this offseason has been a complete bust for the Braves, however it is not AAs fault. It is ownerships pushing for going the cheap route. They are saying AA is not the type of guy to sit back and do nothing...

Probably right, but seriously sucks
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And what makes it worse is they have a fan base that will make excuses for them and tell everyone what great value they got.
We are all Braves fans and want the best for them but call a spade a spade and just say they went cheap.
 
Carp said:
Yes I do. Despite your opinion, the Brave FO isn't dumb. If Neck is starting 150ish games at his age, I'd be very surprised. But it also likely means he would be a starting caliber OF with a WAR in the 1.5-2 range in such a scenario, as the Braves made it a point to seek upgrades at LF before ultimately settling on Neck suggesting they don't believe he'll repeat his 2018 performance). The Braves FO has already stated they want Camargo to play some OF this spring, which clearly suggests they plan on playing him there at times this year. And unless Duvall is washed up, I'd expect he'll get his fair share of playing time as well. All that points to Neck getting significanrly less starts in 2019.
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Last I checked this is the same FO that let Nick play 162 last year, all the while playing horribly for the entire 2nd half of the season. What's changed since September?

I have no doubts that Camargo and Duvall will play a decent amount, even though I seem to remember that the Camargo playing OF statement was made prior to resigning Nick, but I still expect Nick to cruise past 100 games played and not reach 1.5 WAR.
 
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nsacpi said:
next time don't listen to Bowman about budgets
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Without subscribing to Bowman's budget, apparently AA had Markakis' $6 million AND "plenty of money available" (whatever that number equals) and still could've had Donaldson and McCann. Even if that "plenty of money" was $6-$8 million, he could've signed Brantley or Pollock rather than Nick. *ell, I'd rather gamble that a Joyce/Duvall platoon outperforms Markakis this year - that would've saved $4.25 million he could have used to chase Gio or could have used to sign Soria rather than go dumpster-diving with Norris.
 
CrazyTrain said:
That's an odd argument that you're making. Basically that you're fine using 2019 as a trial area for our struggling pitchers but not the guy who had more than 3 WAR last season?

Adding Josh says we want to compete in 2019 or want his QO draft pick.

Adding Nick, Mac and not touching the rotation after losing Anibal says we are rebuilding.

That points far more to rebuilding than it does the opposite.
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I think Camargo will get basically the number of PA as any other starting position player because I think he'll end up playing basically every day. So I don't think he needs a trial, and he won't be given one. He's going to be a key player for us.

It means we're rebuilding, or that we have limited resources and believe in our young SP talent. We can't go get everything, so we have to pick and choose. AA seems to believe it was more important to get a big bat than to spend money on SP. We'll see if he was right.
 
Buzzworm said:
And what makes it worse is they have a fan base that will make excuses for them and tell everyone what great value they got.
We are all Braves fans and want the best for them but call a spade a spade and just say they went cheap.
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Can't really see why ownership would have objected to overpaying in prospects for Realmuto.

Would not have exploded the payroll and would have made fans happy.
 
Enscheff said:
I was absolutely correct until he made improvements in the 2nd half. I literally just showed you the stats proving as much. You glossing over them doesn’t change them.

As I said, this will be fun. Thanks for tossing your hat into the ring!
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You were right until you were wrong. Great.
 
Southcack77 said:
You are too low on the team, IMO.

They added an All Star / possible MVP candidate to a division leader.

I did think they should improve the OF and add a SP to really go for it, but they look like a playoff contender to me as is.
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They absolutely do - the 4th best playoff contender in the NL East.
 
Southcack77 said:
You are too low on the team, IMO.

They added an All Star / possible MVP candidate to a division leader.

I did think they should improve the OF and add a SP to really go for it, but they look like a playoff contender to me as is.
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Here's my honest opinion:

Obviously a lot will depend on Donaldson's health. If he can be Josh from two-three year ago, then we have three legit MVP candidates in JD, Freeman and Acuna. Albies should again be an all star candidate. Ender hopefully bounces back to being an above average hitter. Catcher should come in at about league average. RF and SS will be below average to bad, I'm afraid. Swanson REALLY needs to break out for us to have a chance.

So that means 3 elites, 1 pretty damn good, one fairly good to average, one average and two below average to bad.

Seeing the moves that the Nats, Mets and Phillies have made so far (which doesn't count that one of Harper/Machado or both come to the East), I think we have the 3rd best offense in the East. Our pitching staff will likely be worse than the 12th best that they were last year (if we don't sign anyone), which puts them squarely at league average to slightly below average. The defense is top 5. Bullpen should be slightly above average if Minter / Viz can lock up the 9th fairly well. Hard to know how good Camargo will be in an uncertain role compared to what we got out of Charlie and the rest of the bench last year, but you can consider the bench to have an upgrade.

I think we'll win around 80 games and be in competition for the final wild card spot, but missing by a few games. So a fringe playoff contender, finishing 3rd in the East.
 
We are seeing the damage control articles trying to downplay the poor off season coming out from the Braves mouthpiece now.

I think that points to them being done with major additions.
 
smootness said:
I think Camargo will get basically the number of PA as any other starting position player because I think he'll end up playing basically every day. So I don't think he needs a trial, and he won't be given one. He's going to be a key player for us.

It means we're rebuilding, or that we have limited resources and believe in our young SP talent. We can't go get everything, so we have to pick and choose. AA seems to believe it was more important to get a big bat than to spend money on SP. We'll see if he was right.
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I don't think Camargo reaches 500 PAs and we will have squandered whatever momentum he had going into the offseason and everyone will be like "see I told you Camargo couldn't play every day", completely ignoring the obvious. I bet he tears it up in ST, too. Then, we'll sour on him and move in the offseason so Riley can play and he becomes an all-star on another team.

I disagree about the pitching, we definitely could've cashed in some chips to get some experience into the rotation and not really put us in a bind long term since we have so many prospects. This is the biggest wild card for me. The offense should be above average. I don't think the rotation will be.
 
CrazyTrain said:
I don't think Camargo reaches 500 PAs and we will have squandered whatever momentum he had going into the offseason and everyone will be like "see I told you Camargo couldn't play every day", completely ignoring the obvious. I bet he tears it up in ST, too. Then, we'll sour on him and move in the offseason so Riley can play and he becomes an all-star on another team.

I disagree about the pitching, we definitely could've cashed in some chips to get some experience into the rotation and not really put us in a bind long term since we have so many prospects. This is the biggest wild card for me. The offense should be above average. I don't think the rotation will be.
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No doubt, we absolutely could have cashed in some chips and made more improvements. The question is always (especially so for a team with the financial reality the Braves are in) how much to cash in now and how much to protect for the future. No one has the answer to that on the front end, so everything is a bit of a guessing game and involves risk. Anyone who pretends differently is insane.

If you cash them all in, you're probably going to be screwed longterm. If you don't cash any in, you're probably not going to win as many games in the short-term and may never fully get off the ground into competing territory. So you're balancing somewhere in the middle. But just because we didn't cash in many chips doesn't mean the FO believes we are rebuilding. It means they've decided that based on our options, we were better off being conservative now to hopefully have more reinforcements later.

We still have those pieces that we could cash in at the trade deadline...we could still make a move before the season...we could have some of those guys ready to help out in 2019...there are plenty of scenarios where holding onto pieces does not equal a rebuild.

I think Camargo will get a ton of PA. Whether it's 450 or 550, I don't really know. But he'll probably get about 50 starts just between Donaldson and Dansby being banged up or sitting. Markakis may get more rest this year than he's used to. And if Camargo keeps playing well enough, he'll force himself into a spot somewhere in the lineup on a daily basis.
 
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