2018 Offseason And Targets

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Southcack77 said:
Most fans just know that the the team won the division last year, brought back pretty much the whole team, and added Josh Donaldson.

They haven't consigned the team to fourth place in the division.

Their decisions on whether to go to games will be dependent on their own schedules and the team's record. Not what the offseason looked like.

I suspect ticket sales are way up.
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I don't think so. Sure, you will have some fringe fans that listen to the likes of Bowman and view it as a positive. However, with the amount of information available and access to national writers, I feel that attendance will be down.
 
If we sign Kimbrel, I would be more disappointed in DD than I am already. In no way should we loose a pick to get another pitcher. We have a good pen if we have a coach who can teach half of them to throw strikes. I want more offense not more pitching.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
If we sign Kimbrel, I would be more disappointed in DD than I am already. In no way should we loose a pick to get another pitcher. We have a good pen if we have a coach who can teach half of them to throw strikes. I want more offense not more pitching.
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Can't say I agree to disagree 100%. I see the argument for both sides. But remember when we had O'Flaherty/Venters/Kimbrel at the back end of the game. It was a 6 inning game. I don't trust our pen nearly as much as back then because there were so many stretches last season when we couldn't throw strikes.

But a back end of O'Day/Minter/Viz/Kimbrel would be sick..that allows you to plug in guys like Webb/Sobotka/Biddle/etc. into lower pressure situations and get them some valuable major league experience. If we are not going to add another impact offensive player, adding depth to the bullpen isn't the WORST thing to happen.

Personally, I wouldn't mind releasing Duvall and getting Marwin Gonzalez.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Adding Donaldson Jtr Keuchel and Kimbrel would have been adding ~12 WAR

Using this article from fangraphs, which calculates $/WAR as $4.2m/starter, $5.7/position player, and $10.9/reliever you can calculate the players projected value for 2019.

Josh Donaldson = 4.1 WAR x $5.7m = $23.37M (signed for $23m)
JTR = 3.9 WAR X $5.7M = $22.23M (Playing for $5.9m)
Keuchel = 3.3 WAR X $4.2M = $13.86M (Still unsigned)
Kimbrel = 1.2 WAR X $10.9M = $13.08M (Still unsigned)

Kimbrel and Keuchel will probably cost slightly more than those projections, however, at this point in the offseason, maybe not. And while JTRs value does not take into account prospect capital lost, the monetary value suggests that money that we save from paying him, could be used to sign those 2 to a little above their $/WAR projections.
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Thanks for posting this. I haven't seen it before.

It is interesting to note RPs are valued much differently than all other players, and one has to assume it is almost entirely due to how they can have an out-sized impact on the playoffs due to the extra days off. Or maybe WAR is a terrible way to value RPs.
 
Enscheff said:
Thanks for posting this. I haven't seen it before.

It is interesting to note RPs are valued much differently than all other players, and one has to assume it is almost entirely due to how they can have an out-sized impact on the playoffs due to the extra days off. Or maybe WAR is a terrible way to value RPs.
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They note that it is based on how relievers throw less innings, which I guess is them assuming those appearances hold more weight because of higher pressure.

That article was from Jan 2018 and was the most recent article I could find from them.

As most have agreed, the Braves paid right at market value for Donaldson.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
I don't think so. Sure, you will have some fringe fans that listen to the likes of Bowman and view it as a positive. However, with the amount of information available and access to national writers, I feel that attendance will be down.
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The vast majority of people who go to games are not people like us. They are people who know Freeman, Acuna, Albies, saw we made a big FA signing, and that's about it. They'll come because of our young talent unless we stop winning games.
 
Enscheff said:
Thanks for posting this. I haven't seen it before.

It is interesting to note RPs are valued much differently than all other players, and one has to assume it is almost entirely due to how they can have an out-sized impact on the playoffs due to the extra days off. Or maybe WAR is a terrible way to value RPs.
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I tend to go this direction although I readily admit I am not as statistically adept as a lot of the posters here. I don't put that much stock into intangibles, but I believe a lousy bullpen can really drain a team emotionally if it blows lead after lead throughout the season. I think a consistently effective closer can be important because you can build the bullpen backwards from the ninth inning. My beef with Vizcaino and Minter is that they are really inconsistent. Add Vizcaino's injury issues and things get even more complicated. I'm not advocating signing Kimbrel (especially at the terms he is seeking), but I thought Anthopoulos would do a little more in this area in preparation for 2019.
 
As the game evolves into teams using more pitchers every game the role of the pen is becoming more and more important. I don’t think the traditional closer is as important now as having multiple guys who can preform. I like the idea of adding another high leverage guy to our mix but most of what I wanted are snatched up. I think the cost of Kimbrel doesn’t match up with the extra value you might lose from signing someone like Romo (one of the few left).

Basically a game can be lost in any inning. And having a deeper pen is more important to me than a true stud at the back end. I think the money for the pen should be spread out more than 15 million to one guy.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
As the game evolves into teams using more pitchers every game the role of the pen is becoming more and more important. I don’t think the traditional closer is as important now as having multiple guys who can preform. I like the idea of adding another high leverage guy to our mix but most of what I wanted are snatched up. I think the cost of Kimbrel doesn’t match up with the extra value you might lose from signing someone like Romo (one of the few left).

Basically a game can be lost in any inning. And having a deeper pen is more important to me than a true stud at the back end. I think the money for the pen should be spread out more than 15 million to one guy.
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I agree on bullpen depth and pitching depth in general growing in importance with recent usage trends

would ike to see one more depth move...maybe Bud Norris
 
MLB teams aren't paying 2x for BP arms due to intangibles. They are paying the premium for tangible reasons.

The most obvious one is that BP arms pitch more innings in the post season than they do in the regular season, therefore they directly contribute more towards championships than WAR suggests.

The other obvious factor is that BP arms can be brought in strategically to influence the game when it matters most. This is the idea of leverage, and is intuitive to all fans. The 1 innings Kimbrel pitches in the 9th up by 1 run is far more valuable than the 1 inning Joe Smoe pitches in the 6th down by 5 runs. I have a feeling this type of value isn't accurately captured in either major WAR calculation.
 
WPA is a much more valuable stat when evaluating bullpen pitchers, since their production is more determined by the game situation.
 
striker42 said:
You're assuming Liberty is judging AA by his ability to put a winning team on the field. Considering the nature of a corporate owner like Liberty, I'm thinking he's being judged based on financial measurements instead of on field success. What does Liberty care about a World Series if they can make more money off an 85 win team?
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I found it doubtful Liberty makes such decisions or that they are deeply involved with the operation of the Braves front office. If they wanted a lackey, why would we have fired Wren in the 1st place? Why spend money at all this off-season when the same squad we ran out last year is likely still an 80+ win team in 2019?

If the Braves franchise isn't consistently in playoff contention (and reaching the playoffs) over the next 3-4 years, there will be public pressure to fire AA, and they will likely succumb to that pressure, just like everyone else.

There really is zero motivation for the scenario you present.
 
I don't mind Keuchel if the price is right although I'm not convinced he's much of an upgrade over Fried/Touki/Gohara.... you replace Teheran with him I'd be okay but I'm not seeing us getting rid of Teheran at this point sadly. I just don't see Kimbrel as a need.
 
Signing DK or Gio made more sense when we were assuming Newk was going to be used in a trade.

Now, unless AA is able to pull off a miracle to trade Teheran's contract, I don't think a SP is likely.

Since AA didn't use any prospects to acquire a single upgrade to the MLB roster, perhaps he could use a prospect to upgrade the roster in a roundabout way. Attaching a prospect to Julio as a way to unload his contract so they can sign DK to a 2-3 year deal would essentially be the same as trading that prospect for DK on a below market contract with 2-3 years left.

There should be a few tanking teams willing to buy themselves a FV 45 pitching prospect in exchange for taking on Julio's contract.
 
So we would trade a lower tier prospect, lose a pick, and pay ~5 million more on payroll just to have DK pitch versus touki, wilson, Fried, gohard or anyone else. And that is assuming JT is miserable again this year. I just don’t see how DK adds enough value over internal options to give up what I listed. Not to mention you just assumed two extra years of risk over what JT is signed for.
 
It's not a particularly good idea, it's just the only way I see DK fitting on the current roster with the current payroll constraints.

Most likely they will add a BP arm and some other fringe parts and call it an off season.
 
I know his name has brought up before, but with all the circle jerking about Donaldson, pecker punching about Realmuto, and the Kimbrel back and forth it’s tough to get a feel on things. Marvin Gonzalez remains unsigned. Is he just a higher priced and more proven Johan Camargo? Slots as a super utility guy who is a better defensive outfielder than middle infielder, but can hold his own at first base.
 
Enscheff said:
It's not a particularly good idea, it's just the only way I see DK fitting on the current roster with the current payroll constraints.

Most likely they will add a BP arm and some other fringe parts and call it an off season.
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I wasn’t saying that was your master plan. Just adding my two pennies. Like you I see them adding a reliever and maybe another bench piece. But just as likely We are done until spring evaluations take place. Then he can dumpster dive the spring causualties if he wants.
 
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