2018 Offseason And Targets

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thewupk said:
Pujols didn't work out because no matter how great it's dumb to give a 32 year old 1B stupid long deal.

The first Cabrera contract worked out tremendously well. From 08-15 he was the best hitter in baseball. He of course signed that extension when he was 25 years old and covered all his prime years. The 2nd extension he signed was horrible because again like Pujols is going to include every down year of his career. Arod is another case similar to Cabrera.

Signing superstars past 30 (no matter how great) until they are 40 years old at superstar level money is stupid and will always be stupid. Luckily most teams are now realizing this.

Signing superstars that are in their mid 20's to huge contracts is not a terrible idea at all. It just becomes stupid if you extend them again like in the case of Cabrera and ARod.
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Signing youngsters to super star contracts isn't terrible if you sign the right guy, granted that's always an issue, but far riskier before they hit their prime.
 
Hulavol said:
We’re not gonna be sellers at the deadline... good Lord.
This team is a serious contender as constructed. If we are there at the deadline- and we will be- AA is going to be a lot more comfortable in a trade situation. He/we will know a lot more about the kids.
I like AA not trading any of them yet. We don’t want to accidentally trade Avery/Glavine/Smoltz etc.....
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We are not a serious contender as constructed. If the rotation isn't ready for the big time, I could see us being sellers based on how this FO is operating. If we sign a vet for the rotation, I could see us trading away that person and possibly JD if the price exceeds the draft pick that we would get.
 
TheBravos said:
I undstand they were “rated” high. My point is that none of those guys had the pure stuff of our current guys. I never understood why Blair was rated so high. Was Sims really that high (I cant remember)?...if so...I never expected much of him either.

I will say I had hopes for Wisler for a minute. He was a head case.

Are you really saying the stuff Gohora, Soroka and Touki are the same as Blair and Sims, etc.?

I know pitchers fail. Heck, all these new guys could. Either way they would be failing with a good bit more talent. That’s my point. They have a better chance, because they are more gifted. I really don’t care what they are “ranked”. Folty and Newk are good examples. They had...by far...the most talent of that crop of pitchers...and look who is left standing. Even though the jury is still out on Newk. I feel these new guys are on a different level. They were definitely higher picks (outside of Sims...which I’ll never understand).
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Newk doesn't fit into the "stuff" discussion, he's much more like Wisler and Blair than Folty, Touki, etc...

This is why we should've traded in some chips to get an established pitcher like Kluber. FV and all of this projection stuff is all well and good, but it's all a guessing game. Why sit on so many of the most volatile assets in the game to HOPE they meet their FV?

Also, for those saying AA is cautious because of other terrible deals that he's made... there has to be a happy medium. You can't just curl up into a ball and hope all of your prospects turn out to be good.
 
CrazyTrain said:
We are not a serious contender as constructed. If the rotation isn't ready for the big time, I could see us being sellers based on how this FO is operating. If we sign a vet for the rotation, I could see us trading away that person and possibly JD if the price exceeds the draft pick that we would get.
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Define "contenders" like WS or WC/division?

The division is gonna be a dogfight this year, but the Braves could be a better team this year and still win less games than last season. A lot would have to go wrong for the Braves to sell.
 
While Gohara, Soroka, Touki etc are better than Blair, Wisler, Sims, not every prospect you have is gonna pan out.

At some point you gotta cash in those chips to improve the ML roster, of course we dont know who they were in on given AA gives no leaks who he's on.
 
The talk of whether or not we're going to be sellers at the deadline is kind of ridiculous at this point. There are way too many unknowns.

Right now, all four teams contending in the NL East are one injury away from being a lock for 4th place. What happens if Nola or De Grom blow out and elbow or if Soto or Acuna tear an ACL? One injury to one key player and your team is in 4th and a seller at the deadline.

Also, the teams are one breakout rookie or a player having a big year from being the odds on favorite. What happens if JD is healthy and has an MVP caliber year? If the Phils sign Harper and he has a 9 WAR season, can anyone hang with them?

The teams are way too tightly grouped and the unpredictable turns of the season will play way too big of a role to start guessing as to whether we'll be contending or sellers.
 
Right now, the plan for actually competing in 2019 seems to be:

1. Josh Donaldson plays like 29-year-old Josh Donaldson for 140+ games

2. Ronald Acuna is a god for 150 games

3. A bunch of the young pitchers break out at the same time

That's not impossible, and I suppose counting on that without spending prospect capital or committing any long-term money isn't the worst plan in the world. But it's not something I find terribly inspiring or creative.
 
striker42 said:
The talk of whether or not we're going to be sellers at the deadline is kind of ridiculous at this point. There are way too many unknowns.

Right now, all four teams contending in the NL East are one injury away from being a lock for 4th place. What happens if Nola or De Grom blow out and elbow or if Soto or Acuna tear an ACL? One injury to one key player and your team is in 4th and a seller at the deadline.

Also, the teams are one breakout rookie or a player having a big year from being the odds on favorite. What happens if JD is healthy and has an MVP caliber year? If the Phils sign Harper and he has a 9 WAR season, can anyone hang with them?

The teams are way too tightly grouped and the unpredictable turns of the season will play way too big of a role to start guessing as to whether we'll be contending or sellers.
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Of course it is. Even Freeman admitted to this when he was interviewed a couple of days ago. If the Braves had signed JD two weeks ago there would be nothing but praise going into spring training. The Braves have more talent to start the year than they did a year ago.

I still don't think some people realize how nasty Acuna/JD/Freeman will be.
 
MadduxFanII said:
Right now, the plan for actually competing in 2019 seems to be:

1. Josh Donaldson plays like 29-year-old Josh Donaldson for 140+ games

2. Ronald Acuna is a god for 150 games

3. A bunch of the young pitchers break out at the same time

That's not impossible, and I suppose counting on that without spending prospect capital or committing any long-term money isn't the worst plan in the world. But it's not something I find terribly inspiring or creative.
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JD just has to play like his 31 year old self.

Acuns is a god. He's going to be a mix of Chipper and Andruw.

The Brave have a ton of talented young starters and it's time to give them plenty of time to shine. Julio will be phased out by the all-star break.
 
One other area that gets less attention is DSR. The Braves are leaps and bounds better than the rest of the East. Hopefully that bodes well for our pitching going forward. If they cut the walls down we might be pretty good
 
Heyward said:
Define "contenders" like WS or WC/division?

The division is gonna be a dogfight this year, but the Braves could be a better team this year and still win less games than last season. A lot would have to go wrong for the Braves to sell.
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Contending means ready to win a ring.
 
Tapate50 said:
Chuckie "everything off the plate" Hernandez ain't here anymore, so theres that.
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This is probably what I'm most interested in this year. What the new PC can do with these "projects".

I watched some ST last year that featured Folty using a revised wind up that he was talking up and it was like night and day for him in the regular season. Was CH the guy who worked with him on that? Anyone know?
 
Heyward said:
If ready to win a ring then only about 5-6 teams fit that mold so 3/4 of baseball should be sellers.
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Why do some of you guys have to make everything so black and white?

If I had a team and I wasn't ready to be one of those 5-6 teams, I would certainly think about selling off some of my assets that didn't have long term control to try and improve for the future. If the Braves find themselves in 3-4 place in late July, would you not want them to think about selling off Josh Donaldson to a contender if they offer is better than the compensation pick?
 
MadduxFanII said:
Right now, the plan for actually competing in 2019 seems to be:

1. Josh Donaldson plays like 29-year-old Josh Donaldson for 140+ games

2. Ronald Acuna is a god for 150 games

3. A bunch of the young pitchers break out at the same time

That's not impossible, and I suppose counting on that without spending prospect capital or committing any long-term money isn't the worst plan in the world. But it's not something I find terribly inspiring or creative.
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Or possibly Dansby's wrist really was a big problem and now its 100% and we see the real Dansby for the first time... or maybe Gohara losing 40 pounds, getting his head on straight, and not having to endure his dad dying in his arms as a 21 year old happens... or maybe Soroka is 100% for the whole year... O'Day, and Venters are actually on the team for a full season and play like their career norms... maybe we actually have Acuna for a full year... maybe Gausman is on the team for a full year and takes a step forward.

Let's just not act like there aren't a ton of X-factors that could significantly improve the team that you're not even thinking of

Donaldson isn't playing home games on turf anymore which was likely a bad problem. He was rushed back and was playing before he should have been. He finally got to 100% and showed it with Cleveland. Before this issue he never played less than 156 games in a season... the injury prone narrative is ridiculous.
 
CrazyTrain said:
Why do some of you guys have to make everything so black and white?

If I had a team and I wasn't ready to be one of those 5-6 teams, I would certainly think about selling off some of my assets that didn't have long term control to try and improve for the future. If the Braves find themselves in 3-4 place in late July, would you not want them to think about selling off Josh Donaldson to a contender if they offer is better than the compensation pick?
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3rd and 4th place, and how many games out of the WC, 3rd-4th in the division and 2-3 out they should be sellers then in said scenario.

Braves could have a ton of X Factors that make them not be sellers. But dont list them.
 
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MadduxFanII said:
Right now, the plan for actually competing in 2019 seems to be:

1. Josh Donaldson plays like 29-year-old Josh Donaldson for 140+ games

2. Ronald Acuna is a god for 150 games

3. A bunch of the young pitchers break out at the same time

That's not impossible, and I suppose counting on that without spending prospect capital or committing any long-term money isn't the worst plan in the world. But it's not something I find terribly inspiring or creative.
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Number 3 has always been the plan since Day 1 of the rebuild. They very clearly stated they were building around young pitching, and until that effort bears fruit, the Braves will not be serious contenders. They don't have the resources to go all in on pitching and then go out and buy more pitching.

"The Plan" was: acquire pitching, build a rotation, trade extras for position players.

That hasn't happened, and we proclaimed as much back when it was apparent they were focusing on pitching during the rebuild.
 
This notion that a team is a contender for a playoff spot, but not a contender for a WS title is pure stupidity.

There are 8-10 playoff teams each year (depending on your definition), meaning each team that makes the playoffs has a roughly 10%-12.5% chance of winning the WS.

2018: Boston 108 wins
2017: Houston 101 wins
2016: Chicago 103 wins
2015: Kansas City 95 wins
2014: San Francisco 88 wins (WC)
2013: Red Sox 93 wins
2012: San Francisco 94 wins
2011: St Louis 90 wins (WC)
2010: San Francisco 92 wins
2009: New York 103 wins
2008: Philly 92 wins
2007: Boston 96 wins
2006: St Louis 83 wins

Keep looking and you will see the WS is won by a pretty even mix of 100+ win super teams and much lesser 90 win good teams.

The key to winning a WS is getting to playoffs, not making some magical roster deemed "ready to win a WS".
 
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