cajunrevenge
Well-known member
theres a bonus for being clutch in a pennant race.
2018: The Year Of The Venezuelan Trout
- Thread starter SJ24
- Start date
We'll see how much the voters care about walks. Not that I disagree with you or anything.
Acuña is "only" .6 fWAR away with 8 less games played. He could easily catch him there. he's already besting him in bWAR (2.5 to 2.0).
the only reason why you're probably right is because voters will basically look at strictly offense.
chop2chip
Well-known member
There’s some disagreement between UZR and DRS regarding Acuna’s defense which is likely enough to make this mostly about offense, which Soto is clearly superior at this point.
I think Acuna is the better player moving forward, but for this season it’s impossible to overrate how amazing Soto has been as a19 year old.
either way, acuña is a far superior defender because soto is really bad.
soto's fWAR is 2.6, bWAR 2.0.
acuña is 2.0 and 2.5 respectively.
overall, soto hasn't been that much better a player (if at all). if acuña catches him in fWAR and maintains his bWAR lead, he won't have to do what you say to be the better player this year.
Top 5 ISO in MLB history, with at least 250 PAs, age 20 or less:
1) Ott .306 2) Teddy W.281, 3) ARoid .273, 4) Horner .272, 5) Acuna .270. It's not a stretch if he makes it into the top 3 by season's end.
BTW, Soto is 8th at .246, which is #1 among 19 year olds.
Southcack77
Well-known member
If we are just talking about the sample we have, Soto walks much more and strikes out much less and has a little bit less, but comparable power.
to that sample (which as we've seen can change remarkably over a week), Soto has been the better hitter all things considered.
Acuna hasn't really been good enough in the field to make that stand out for his case.
the best thing he can do to change the conversation is to stay relatively hot and be seen conspicuously helping the team in the playoff race.
I will say the past week was exactly the sort of thing that Acuna needed to shift the narrative away from how dominant Soto had been. He just put his name back in the hat. So I think from here he probably needs to be a little bit better than Soto and Braves need to win.
The offensive difference is not as large anymore. Also consider that the BWAA is still largely in the stone age and values the baseball card stats, of which Acuna leads Soto in several categories. The biggest difference so far offensively has been Soto's superior plate discipline.
Acuna has closed the gap significantly in regards to ROY. Getting hot down the stretch of a playoff run will only help his case and would likely secure his selection.
stats that measure all of this and more have the two players pretty close. the average WAR for each is 2.3 for soto and 2.25 for acuña. soto has not been that much better (if at all) than acuña overall.
Southcack77
Well-known member
wRC+
Soto 157
Acuna 138
Acuna has been all right in the field, but the metrics disagree on how he's done, his defense hasn't particularly impressed eyes, and that whole component of WAR is the most problematic (which is demonstrated in their complete inconsistency in evaluating the play of the same player).
Plus I don't think many people are going to be basing their votes on their averaged WAR.
......
this is just the sample we have. A week ago this wasn't a discussion. A week from now it might not be again...in the opposite direction. Who knows?
Acuna is in it and will come down to the stretch. He needs to outperform Soto in that time period to win it.
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yeah, i said that the reason why chop was likely right is because voters will be favoring mostly offensive numbers. to win the award acuña will have to continue to go nuts.
but soto has simply not been a much better player than acuña this year. they've been about equal. and it's possible, if not likely, acuña will be the better player this year and still not win ROTY.
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
I mean just thinking about it in general, it's pretty amazing that Acuna could keep a slash around .282/.342/.553 and it's quite possible he doesn't win ROY, but that's how incredibly unprecedented what Soto has done. After a slow at times first half, he's lived up to the 20 year old prodigal hype and then some, could post one of the better age 20 rookie seasons in major league baseball and if Soto doesn't continue slumping and ends up steadying...because what he's done is just absolutely amazing for 19, he's still ROY.
Soto is something we've never really seen before offensively. He's bad defensively and only going to get worse, so he's likely going to play 1B for most of his career, if he doesn't move to the AL. Which is fine, and he'll be super valuable - probably something like Judge, that 6-8 WAR range...which is great. Acuna does have the higher ceiling because of all that he offers, and I would rather have Acuna moving forward, as his ceiling is more in that 8-10 WAR range. But Soto deserves ROY at this point.
Watch out for Vlad Jr. That dude will be incredible. Younger than those guys. Hitting over .400 with only 32 k’s in over 300at bats.
i'm not really "pimping." i'm stating that as of right now, acuña and soto have been close in overall play.
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
Yeah he looks like he's going to be a monster.
again, tho: acuña is .6 behind in fWAR and ahead in bWAR. offensively, sure, it's not close. but all around game-wise, it's much closer than people are implying.