I really don’t want to add Waters. He looks like a future stud. Just absolutely mashes the ball. Add pitchers. We are supposed to have plenty.
Newk/Allard, 2 of Anderson/Wentz/Wilson,
Or Newk/Allard, Kyle Wright.
2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION
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I really don’t want to add Waters. He looks like a future stud. Just absolutely mashes the ball. Add pitchers. We are supposed to have plenty.
Newk/Allard, 2 of Anderson/Wentz/Wilson,
Or Newk/Allard, Kyle Wright.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
neither are as valuable as Waters or Contreras. Wentz's is probably the pitcher that is most similar in value...I suspect the Mets will want quality more than quantity...meaning at least one of Soroka, Gohara or Wright...maybe one of those three plus Newcomb
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Allard was a high pick and is ready. To me, he is the first one I try to move of the big names.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think his value is a bit below that of Soroka, Wright and Newcom
msstate7
Well-known member
With every dominant start by Wilson, does soroka become more expendable for a guy like degrom? Aren't soroka and Wilson very similar?
I really like Soroka, but his shoulder problem is making me uneasy.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I like Wilson...but Soroka is special...in my mind and I suspect in the minds of most professional evaluators there is a significant difference in value
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There is also a lack of appreciation of the magnitude of the contender's premium in that kind of deal.
msstate7
Well-known member
Soroka is a hell of a piece. He obviously wouldn't get degrom by himself, but he's certainly a good start. Expendable was a bad word choice on my part, but soroka isn't wisler or sims
What’s it going to take? Pretty clear it’s a 3 for 1. Possibly 4 for 1. I mean Braves aren’t including Acuna, Albies.
What’s it take in the Braves system?
msstate7
Well-known member
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That’s a big big price. That’s 3 good prospects. I’d do it. You would have to think the Mets would too.
Eventually we are gonna have to convert a big pool of prospects into very good players. I’d rather trade Newcomb vs Soroka but the Mets probably would prefer Soroka too.
Newk is more proven. He has also stayed healthy and is a lefty. He barely missed making the All Star game.
Soroka is less proven at the MLB level and has not stayed healthy. I would think the Mets would rather take Newk.
So my offer would be Newk, Allard, Muller. That’s a proven MLB player with TONS of control left AND two first rounders (Newk was a first rounder also was he not?).
That’s strong to me.
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
So you basically give away most of our lefties?
Gohara ? Fried? Wentz?
zbhargrove
Well-known member
except for all the others?
Sorry, but you aren't getting Degrom for any combination of 3 pitching prospects we currently have (unless the Mets FO is run by Dave Stewart). Degrom, if we get him now, can likely be expected to produce about 12 WAR over the next 2.5 years. At 9 million per WAR, he'll have roughly 80 million in surplus value remaining (that figure may be low tbh).
Now I only have preseason ratings to go on, but you're likely looking at one 55 FV hitter of Riley/Pache to start with. Then add another 55 FV pitcher like Soroka/Gohara, then add another 50 FV guy like Allard, Anderson, Cumberland, Waters, Touki, or Fried.
And that only gets you to roughly 75 million in surplus value. So pretty fair overall, but that's not factoring in the contenders premium along with possibly extra for an inter-division trade. So a package of Riley, Soroka, and Allard may only even be a starting point in negotiations.
Now I only have preseason ratings to go on, but you're likely looking at one 55 FV hitter of Riley/Pache to start with. Then add another 55 FV pitcher like Soroka/Gohara, then add another 50 FV guy like Allard, Anderson, Cumberland, Waters, Touki, or Fried.
And that only gets you to roughly 75 million in surplus value. So pretty fair overall, but that's not factoring in the contenders premium along with possibly extra for an inter-division trade. So a package of Riley, Soroka, and Allard may only even be a starting point in negotiations.
Not even close to enough for DeGrom.
He is going to provide a contender a huge upgrade this year. He is probably going to project to 2-3 wins the rest of the way, at a cost of ~$3M. Elite SPs carry a huge premium for contenders, so I'd estimate his 2018 surplus value alone to be roughly $60M.
He is then under control for another 2 seasons, and will make about $25M-$30M via arbitration. He will easily be projected for ~10 wins over those 2 season, which represents another $70M in surplus value.
That's a total of $130M in surplus value to get DeGrom.
Propects are valued roughly as:
FV 75 = $175M
FV 70 = $107M
FV 65 = $70M
FV 60 = $60M
FV 55 = $38M
FV 50 = $20M
FV 45 = $11M
FV 40 = $5M
The Braves simply don't have a headliner worthy of DeGrom (other than Acuna and Albies), and the Mets would be foolish to take a handful of 55s and 50s worth $20M-$40M each when they can get 60 as the centerpiece...as these TOR guys with control always net in the return package.