2019 MLB Draft Thread

[nsacpi]

The Braves went BPA in the draft imo. They wanted Senzel but he went the pick before us and they would of taken Royce Lewis if he were there so with Wright falling to them it was a no brainer.

Yeah. They indicated after the 2016 draft that they would have taken Senzel. I don't have a clear recollection on Royce Lewis, but would not be surprised if that was the case.

At any given pick, BPA will depend on what the teams ahead of us do. But looking at some of the mocks and also how the talent is distributed this year, I think some scenarios are more likely than others.

My guess is the first three picks will look like this: #9 college pitcher (Lodolo, Rutledge, Manoah), #21 HS pitcher (Allen, Priester, Malone, Espino), #60 HS SS (Paris, Lugo, Lee, Nunez, Volpe, Valdez) or college SS (Holland, Smith, McConnell, Jones, Shewmake).

 

[Super]

Yeah. They indicated after the 2016 draft that they would have taken Senzel. I don't have a clear recollection on Royce Lewis, but would not be surprised if that was the case.

At any given pick, BPA will depend on what the teams ahead of us do. But looking at some of the mocks and also how the talent is distributed this year, I think some scenarios are more likely than others.

My guess is the first three picks will look like this: #9 college pitcher (Lodolo, Rutledge, Manoah), #21 HS pitcher (Allen, Priester, Malone, Espino), #60 HS SS (Paris, Lugo, Lee, Nunez, Volpe, Valdez) or college SS (Holland, Smith, McConnell, Jones, Shewmake).

how many 2nd round college players end up being really good? just curious because it seems, without looking at anything at all, that most college players who are studs are more obvious at draft time, and go in round 1. i like the idea of going all ceiling after the 1st.

 

[nsacpi]

how many 2nd round college players end up being really good? just curious because it seems, without looking at anything at all, that most college players who are studs are more obvious at draft time, and go in round 1. i like the idea of going all ceiling after the 1st.

Looking at the drafts from 2000-2010 I see these college players taken in the second round: Haren (72), Ethier (62), Pence (64), Pedroia (65), Suzuki (67), Headley (66), Cozart (79), Blackmon (72), Kipnis (63), LeMahieu (79), Corbin (80), Smyley (68), Simmons (70)

Those are the best ones. Many others had decent careers.

 

[sturg33]

the Braves screwing up big time by focusing on acquiring pitching is laughably overblown.
the claims of other teams focusing on hitters is also way, WAY overblown...it's basically just not true, at all. the Braves may have focused more on pitching than those teams did, but they still went after pitching.

Since our rebuild started, the Braves went crazy wild in pitching direction.

2015 first round pick - pitcher
2016 first round pick - pitcher
2017 first round pick - pitcher
2018 first round pick - pitcher

Those pitchers were Allard, Anderson, Wright, and Stewart. Allard and Stewart were busts... Wright and Anderson are trending down.

Then, their most valuable trade assets, the centerpiece for their return were almost all pitchers.

Heyward - pitcher
Upton - pitcher
Gattis- pitcher
Kimbrel - pitcher
Simmons - pitcher
Mallex Smith - pitcher
Shelby Miller - hitter


Some of them may pan out, of course. Folty has given us 1 good year out 4, and his elbow is barking. Fried looks promising, but has already had TJ surgery. Wisler has already been dumped. Newcomb has been relegated to bullpen. Gohara is nowhere to be found.

The best trade we did was the one where we acquired Dansby and Ender.

Soroka is a stud, but he was a comp pick and I'm fine with using late first/2nd picks on high upside pitchers. But it's worth remembering he has already missed a year due to a shoulder injury.

I'm not saying to ignore pitchers, but the Braves bizarrely went all in on them.

 

[msstate7]

Since our rebuild started, the Braves went crazy wild in pitching direction.

2015 first round pick - pitcher
2016 first round pick - pitcher
2017 first round pick - pitcher
2018 first round pick - pitcher

Those pitchers were Allard, Anderson, Wright, and Stewart. Allard and Stewart were busts... Wright and Anderson are trending down.

Then, their most valuable trade assets, the centerpiece for their return were almost all pitchers.

Heyward - pitcher
Upton - pitcher
Gattis- pitcher
Kimbrel - pitcher
Simmons - pitcher
Mallex Smith - pitcher
Shelby Miller - hitter


Some of them may pan out, of course. Folty has given us 1 good year out 4, and his elbow is barking. Fried looks promising, but has already had TJ surgery. Wisler has already been dumped. Newcomb has been relegated to bullpen. Gohara is nowhere to be found.

The best trade we did was the one where we acquired Dansby and Ender.

Soroka is a stud, but he was a comp pick and I'm fine with using late first/2nd picks on high upside pitchers. But it's worth remembering he has already missed a year due to a shoulder injury.

I'm not saying to ignore pitchers, but the Braves bizarrely went all in on them.

You don't have the dansby/ender trade without the jhey trade for a pitcher

 

[nsacpi]

Since our rebuild started, the Braves went crazy wild in pitching direction.

2015 first round pick - pitcher
2016 first round pick - pitcher
2017 first round pick - pitcher
2018 first round pick - pitcher

Those pitchers were Allard, Anderson, Wright, and Stewart. Allard and Stewart were busts... Wright and Anderson are trending down.

Then, their most valuable trade assets, the centerpiece for their return were almost all pitchers.

Heyward - pitcher
Upton - pitcher
Gattis- pitcher
Kimbrel - pitcher
Simmons - pitcher
Mallex Smith - pitcher
Shelby Miller - hitter


Some of them may pan out, of course. Folty has given us 1 good year out 4, and his elbow is barking. Fried looks promising, but has already had TJ surgery. Wisler has already been dumped. Newcomb has been relegated to bullpen. Gohara is nowhere to be found.

The best trade we did was the one where we acquired Dansby and Ender.

Soroka is a stud, but he was a comp pick and I'm fine with using late first/2nd picks on high upside pitchers. But it's worth remembering he has already missed a year due to a shoulder injury.

I'm not saying to ignore pitchers, but the Braves bizarrely went all in on them.

I don't think there was a plan to just pick pitchers. They took it year by year and that's how it worked out. They wanted Senzel pretty badly but the Reds took him just ahead of our pick that year.

 

[Super]

Looking at the drafts from 2000-2010 I see these college players taken in the second round: Haren (72), Ethier (62), Pence (64), Pedroia (65), Suzuki (67), Headley (66), Cozart (79), Blackmon (72), Kipnis (63), LeMahieu (79), Corbin (80), Smyley (68), Simmons (70)

Those are the best ones. Many others had decent careers.

fair enough. there can be upside there then.

 

[Enscheff]

I would be shocked if the Braves get 2 pitchers at 9/21. Surely the AA FO is smarter than that.

This analysis of draft patterns based on a handful of data points is the smallest of small sample sizes.

 

[Super]

Since our rebuild started, the Braves went crazy wild in pitching direction.

2015 first round pick - pitcher
2016 first round pick - pitcher
2017 first round pick - pitcher
2018 first round pick - pitcher

Those pitchers were Allard, Anderson, Wright, and Stewart. Allard and Stewart were busts... Wright and Anderson are trending down.

Then, their most valuable trade assets, the centerpiece for their return were almost all pitchers.

Heyward - pitcher
Upton - pitcher
Gattis- pitcher
Kimbrel - pitcher
Simmons - pitcher
Mallex Smith - pitcher
Shelby Miller - hitter


Some of them may pan out, of course. Folty has given us 1 good year out 4, and his elbow is barking. Fried looks promising, but has already had TJ surgery. Wisler has already been dumped. Newcomb has been relegated to bullpen. Gohara is nowhere to be found.

The best trade we did was the one where we acquired Dansby and Ender.

Soroka is a stud, but he was a comp pick and I'm fine with using late first/2nd picks on high upside pitchers. But it's worth remembering he has already missed a year due to a shoulder injury.

I'm not saying to ignore pitchers, but the Braves bizarrely went all in on them.

As noted, some of those picks wouldn't have been pitchers if other players fell to them. the Cubs were super lucky a pitcher went 1 and Bryant fell to them. that didn't happen for Atlanta.
i view the trades as buying low on certain guys - Folty, Fried, Miller. Buying low on Miller worked out beautifully. that string of trades should be praised.
some certainly haven't worked out. that also applies to trades teams have made for hitters, too, tho. the Nats traded 3 pitching prospects for Adam Eaton. I bet they wish they had that trade back today. i'm sure there are more that aren't popping into my head - ones where a trade for a hitter flopped.
point is, you can play this game all day with all kinds of trades. the Braves were hardly making a huge mistake with their approach, but you wouldn't have known that at the time.
the other teams didn't specifically build around hitters as you suggested. they mostly took/acquired who they felt were the best players presented to them, which often included pitchers very high in the draft.

 

[nsacpi]

With the #9 we will be choosing from Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Thompson as far as pitchers go and Bishop, Langeliers, Stott, Carroll as far as hitters go.

I'd say there is a 90% chance our #9 pick will come from those 8. One or two might go to the two teams picking just ahead of us. I like this group of pitchers more than the hitters.

 

[Jaw]

I don't think there was a plan to just pick pitchers. They took it year by year and that's how it worked out. They wanted Senzel pretty badly but the Reds took him just ahead of our pick that year.

When year after year the Braves consistently believe that the best player available is a pitcher, then it seems likely they have been valuing pitchers more highly than everyone else. Too highly.

 

[sturg33]

When year after year the Braves consistently believe that the best player available is a pitcher, then it seems likely they have been valuing pitchers more highly than everyone else. Too highly.

The Braves have averaged a top 10 pick over last 4 years (14, 3, 5, 8)

We desperately need to hit on one or two of them and I fear we wont

 

[nsacpi]

When year after year the Braves consistently believe that the best player available is a pitcher, then it seems likely they have been valuing pitchers more highly than everyone else. Too highly.

I've made the case for this with respect to their other high picks (supplemental, second and third rounds). There they have bucked an industry-wide trend away from HS pitchers. I think there probably is something to your point when you look at the whole picture: the last five years and all the picks from the first round through the third round. As an organization we have been very pitcher heavy. But I also think some of it is how the drafts played out. In a slightly different scenario we would have picked guys like Senzel and Royce Lewis. I think last year there were a couple hitters taken ahead of Stewart that we wanted.

The two theories are not exclusive. The Braves probably have valued pitching more than the industry when it comes to drafting AND some of the pitcher-heavy outcome is just how the drafts in question played out.

 

[sturg33]

As noted, some of those picks wouldn't have been pitchers if other players fell to them. the Cubs were super lucky a pitcher went 1 and Bryant fell to them. that didn't happen for Atlanta.
i view the trades as buying low on certain guys - Folty, Fried, Miller. Buying low on Miller worked out beautifully. that string of trades should be praised.
some certainly haven't worked out. that also applies to trades teams have made for hitters, too, tho. the Nats traded 3 pitching prospects for Adam Eaton. I bet they wish they had that trade back today. i'm sure there are more that aren't popping into my head - ones where a trade for a hitter flopped.
point is, you can play this game all day with all kinds of trades. the Braves were hardly making a huge mistake with their approach, but you wouldn't have known that at the time.
the other teams didn't specifically build around hitters as you suggested. they mostly took/acquired who they felt were the best players presented to them, which often included pitchers very high in the draft.

The Cubs drafted players like Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Happ.

The Astros drafted players like Bregman, Correa, Springer.

They didn't draft exclusively pitchers and I'm not saying they did. But the Braves have and results dont look great. These are top 10 picks

 

[Super]

We desperately need to hit on one or two of them

i mean, not really. they'll be just fine, IMO, if zero of them produce anything.

 

[nsacpi]

The Braves have averaged a top 10 pick over last 4 years (14, 3, 5, 8)

We desperately need to hit on one or two of them and I fear we wont

We've made up for that a bit with guys like Soroka, Riley and Waters who were taken slightly later. And of course that last guy (Stewart) never signed. We have one last chance this year for a high pick. After that we are going to be picking pretty low in the first round (a problem I'm happy to see come to fruition).

 

[Super]

The Cubs drafted players like Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Happ.

The Astros drafted players like Bregman, Correa, Springer.

They didn't draft exclusively pitchers and I'm not saying they did. But the Braves have and results dont look great. These are top 10 picks

the astros also drafted two pitchers in back-to-back years with the #1 overall pick. they (foolishly, IMO, and said so at the time) passed on Bryant for one. they did not focus on acquiring hitters. Bryant and Schwarber falling to the Cubs was more luck than anything. Happ has had a couple of decent years but is looking like a marginal player.
the Cubs probably take the pitcher if Bryant isn't sitting there for them. the same way the Braves take Senzel if he doesn't go the pick before. those two events quickly change the dialogue.

 

[Southcack77]

the Braves screwing up big time by focusing on acquiring pitching is laughably overblown.
the claims of other teams focusing on hitters is also way, WAY overblown...it's basically just not true, at all. the Braves may have focused more on pitching than those teams did, but they still went after pitching.

I think the Braves had a pretty sensible plan for rebuilding and excited it well. Generally they've made pretty good decisions and evaluations to this point and contrary to some somewhat overwrought criticism have done a pretty good job of acquiring pitching and positional talent.

 

[nsacpi]

We have to take each draft as it plays out.

How would any of you order these 8 players: Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Thompson, Bishop, Langeliers, Stott and Carroll.

Is there someone else you would consider with the #9 pick.

My order: Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Carroll, Bishop, Thompson, Langeliers, Stott. That's why I'm advocating for a pitcher with the #9 pick and would be happy with any of Lodolo, Manoah, or Rutledge.

I've also said we should try to get one of the Top 6 guys to drop to us and mentioned Abrams specifically as a local boy who might cooperate in such a scheme. But that's a long shot.

 

[msstate7]

Mlb draft needs a make over. It would be a heck of a lot more interesting if trades could be made. Just think if contenders could trade picks for current players