Southcack77
Well-known member
prolly better than Julio and a decent hedge against any number of rotation failures. But that's true of any number of guys.
2019 Trade Deadline Thread:
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prolly better than Julio and a decent hedge against any number of rotation failures. But that's true of any number of guys.
no one called him untouchable and your analysis was poor.
unless you think 3 BB/9 is bad, which actually apparently you do, based on more than one comment. so, carry on.
CrazyTrain
Well-known member
That’s essentially the argument I was making only the walk rate does concern me. Only time will tell who’s right on that topic.
Thanks for the on topic discussion.
CrazyTrain
Well-known member
You just can’t help yourself can you?
I think 3 BB/9 is mediocre. > 4 is bad, which is currently his season average.... which is what I was referring too this entire time minus the discussion about his recent numbers.
And again, I was only using it as support why I believe he should be dealt if we can get someone to buy him at max perceived value.
So, please stop with the baseless comments.
CrazyTrain
Well-known member
I'm going to put you on ignore since you add nothing of value to the discussion.
Goodbye forever, tshuper.
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striker42
Well-known member
His BB rate and maybe the spin rate rumors we've heard are what stands between Anderson and top 10 status.
His recent results are encouraging but his BB rate on the year is still 4.27. That's too high.
If he can drop the BB rate while keeping the K rate and HR rate intact, he skyrockets in value. The BB rate could be the difference between Anderson being an ace and Anderson being a high K number 4 starter. The spread is that wide right now.
I'll defer to the organization's take on his future control when it comes to whether or not to trade him. However, there's just no way I deal him for Luis Castillo.
I think this is a very good summation of Anderson's value. He certainly isn't untouchable (only Pache is, imo), but he's not going anywhere for any rental.
To me, his BB rate is not concerning in the least, and isn't even worth mentioning in this type of discussion. The concern for me is whether or not the statcast data we have is accurate, and what that means for his MiLB results translating to the MLB level. Until we see the MLB data we simply don't know, and all we can do is hope.
I'm the low man on Boyd around here, but an Anderson for Boyd trade is probably fine with me if the 1700 RPM value is correct. Castillo and Thor are obviously guys I would include Waters and/or Anderson and/or Wright to acquire.
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Pot, meet kettle...
striker42
Well-known member
Castillo has potential. There's still ceiling left, no doubt. However, the results in over 350 major league IP have been middle of the rotation starter. In 3 years in the majors he's put up FIPs of 3.75, 4.32, and 3.67. His xFIPs have been 3.41, 3.69, and 3.72.
I'd definitely take Castillo in a deal but I'm not high on paying ace price for a guy who might have ace ceiling but has pitched like a middle of the rotation starter.
Maybe the disagreement over him comes from people's definitions of middle of the rotation starter.
striker42
Well-known member
What's your reasoning for not considering Anderson's BB rate a concern? Not being accusatory. Just generally curious.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think it probably comes from your definition of a middle of the rotation starter.
Castillo is better than his FIP for reasons I already shared.
He's 21 in AA. He's shown improvement. It's not that bad compared to other young SPs. He seems to be athletic enough to project average-ish future command.
He's not MLB-ready now. He probably isn't going to be Soroka. But it's not like he's a 24 year old Newk when folks were still thinking he could meaningfully improve his control.
The concern with Anderson should be the supposed 1700 RPM on his breaking ball. He won't be able to contribute if that number is correct, and the BB rate won't matter. If that 1700 RPM value is correct, Anderson is likely at peak value right now.
striker42
Well-known member
Quite possibly. In my estimation there are only a few true aces in the game. Guys like DeGrom, Scherzer, and Sale. The number 2s are the guys who are solid and might have the occasional year where they're elite, but they lack to consistent dominance of the true aces. After that is a whole bunch of middle of the rotation guys.
striker42
Well-known member
I agree with the RPM thing. Unless his changeup projects as plus strikeout pitch, the RPM issue is very concerning.
One concern I have is that the walks aren't a result of poor command but instead are the result of Anderson pitching out of the zone and relying on the extremely poor plate discipline of minor leaguers to get them to chase. That would lead to big time K numbers but also a fair number of walks when hitters aren't chasing. It would also explain how he keeps the K rate so high if the curve isn't that great.
It's all speculation at this point. But if the curve's RPMs aren't great (and I have to think AA has that data) then I think you have to sell high on Anderson.
striker42
Well-known member
The sinker baller stuff is a fair point. Sinker ballers can out perform FIP. However, I probably put more weight on the BBs than you do. The command is what I think separates him from Soroka, at least in my book.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I don't think pitching out of the zone with average (or below) off speed offerings adequately explains leading AA in Ks, but we won't know till we know.
Castillo's increased strikeouts counter-act his increase in walks compared to Soroka.
Anderson is the guy I want to see debut the most. I'm also extremely skeptical the breaking ball is that bad.