2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

Carp said:
I just don't see the point in Minor unless we're sending them organizational filler. I think both Folty and Gaus are better options down the stretch.
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Agree here. Minor is pitching well, but his deeper metrics and ERA don't really jive.
 
Ranger fans think they will get something for minor but reality will be harsh. He is a pitcher living on luck with no control. I will be shocked if he gets much more than one 45 guy.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Ranger fans think they will get something for minor but reality will be harsh. He is a pitcher living on luck with no control. I will be shocked if he gets much more than one 45 guy.
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I'm sure that the thread police will be by shortly to explain to you that a low 3's BB/9 ratio is not cause for concern, nor indicates bad control.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Ranger fans think they will get something for minor but reality will be harsh. He is a pitcher living on luck with no control. I will be shocked if he gets much more than one 45 guy.
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Help me think about the biggest recent trade returns for pitchers. Archer, Sale, and Quintana were all significant, but they were all players with past history of high level performance and several years of control at a fairly reasonable rate.

I think people keep putting big hypothetical prices on acquiring guys and it just seems like there is not a whole lot of recent history of that actually being the case.
 
Southcack77 said:
Help me think about the biggest recent trade returns for pitchers. Archer, Sale, and Quintana were all significant, but they were all players with past history of high level performance and several years of control at a fairly reasonable rate.

I think people keep putting big hypothetical prices on acquiring guys and it just seems like there is not a whole lot of recent history of that actually being the case.
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Not a starting pitcher but at the deadline last year the Indians gave up a top prospect for Brad Hand (and Adam Cimber). On BA's September 2018 list Francisco Mejia was #24. If a top reliever with several years of control can get you a Top 25 guy, then a top starter is going to get you significantly more.
 
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nsacpi said:
Not a starting pitcher but at the deadline last year the Indians gave up a top prospect for Brad Hand (and Adam Cimber). On BA's September 2018 list Francisco Mejia was #24. If a top reliever with several years of control can get you a Top 25 guy, then a top starter is going to get you significantly more.
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Cost controlled, elite performing players with many years remaining on their deals are going to fetch a lot regardless of their position. As they should.

Getting a player who basically has all the upside of a great prospect with a fraction of the risk is worth giving up a lot. It's a worthy use of prospect capital.

These guys like Mike Minor? Marcus Stroman? No reason to believe they are going to be worth 3x or 4x their actual value at the deadline.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Ranger fans think they will get something for minor but reality will be harsh. He is a pitcher living on luck with no control. I will be shocked if he gets much more than one 45 guy.
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A 45 guy is a pretty good return on investment for them. But you never know; he may one of the only starters that is healthy and available in 2 weeks with so many teams in the thick of the playoff chase and wanting to buy instead of sell.
 
Not that it means anything at all but in that trade website we were linked to I got Grineke Peralta and 37 million for Wilson Allard and Janistia. I’d probably pull the trigger on that
 
Southcack77 said:
Help me think about the biggest recent trade returns for pitchers. Archer, Sale, and Quintana were all significant, but they were all players with past history of high level performance and several years of control at a fairly reasonable rate.

I think people keep putting big hypothetical prices on acquiring guys and it just seems like there is not a whole lot of recent history of that actually being the case.
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I imagine he has similar value to what Gausman had at last years deadline, though may be a bit less since Gaus had an extra year of control that wasn't guaranteed. Baltimore received Cumberland (45), Encarnacion (40), Phillips (40 FV as of March 2019), and Zimmerman (currently unranked).

I could see Tex pulling in a 45 FV guy and another 40 FV guy in return for Minor. It's possible they pull a 50 FV guy from a desperate team in a market that could be very thin at SP.
 
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Acquiring Minor would be a reasonably cheap insurance policy against Folty, Gausman, Julio, and Fried all being untrustworthy by the time the playoffs roll around.

If you don't think any real difference makers will be available or worth the price, Minor is probably as good of a value as any of the other starting pitchers rumored to be available.
 
Southcack77 said:
Cost controlled, elite performing players with many years remaining on their deals are going to fetch a lot regardless of their position. As they should.

Getting a player who basically has all the upside of a great prospect with a fraction of the risk is worth giving up a lot. It's a worthy use of prospect capital.

These guys like Mike Minor? Marcus Stroman? No reason to believe they are going to be worth 3x or 4x their actual value at the deadline.
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The contender's premium applies to their expected production during the rest of 2019. The other years that they are under contractual control should be priced without any premium.
 
nsacpi said:
The contender's premium applies to their expected production during the rest of 2019. The other years that they are under contractual control should be priced without any premium.
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How do you figure the contenders premium. Surely you don't think the contenders premium is the same for every player?
 
Carp said:
How do you figure the contenders premium. Surely you don't think the contenders premium is the same for every player?
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The contenders premium is just something that is backed out of trades made mid-season between sellers and buyers versus trades made in the off-season (with the latter acting as a sort of control group). The comparison between those two sets of trades suggests the contenders premium is something close to 50% of expected production during the rest of the season. If a player is expected to produce 1 WAR after the trade deadline, the buying team on average will pay as if that is worth 1.5 WAR. Obviously, this is just an average with substantial variation from trade to trade. But it gives you a way to evaluate the extent to which a deal is lopsided compared to peer group trades.
 
Minor seems more like a solid option for next season as the Julio replacement than he does this season. So I could see the logic behind acquiring him.
 
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