21. SP Owen Murphy, Riverside-Brooksfield High School
Owen Murphy had the most dominant season I have every seen from a high school player this year. He threw 51.1 innings and had just a 0.14 ERA. He walked just 4 hitters, allowed 10 hits, and struck out 137 batters. His K% was literally over 80% and his walk rate was just over 2%. Oh yeah, he also played played shortstop and posted a 1.947 OPS while walking 34 times compared to 6 strikeouts in 138 PA. This isn’t some sleazy 2A school, it’s a genuinely solid 5A program. In his conference, Owen Murphy has the highest OPS by 0.738 and the second-best ERA is over seven times as high as Murphy. He leads in strikeouts by 64. There is no one in the same realm of existence as Murphy.
Owen Murphy is a solid day two prospect as a shortstop. He has electric bat speed and projects for above-average power. The hit tool is solid and he’s a fine defensive shortstop. There is some intrigue in the idea of developing Murphy two-ways but I think he’s too good on the mound to take away from that at all and you can’t play a premium position and pitch without the fatigue killing you. Owen Murphy is interesting at shortstop but he is significantly better at pitcher so that’s all I am choosing to focus on.
Owen Murphy is not the hardest throwing prep arm as he only sits 90–92 MPH and tops out at 94 MPH but he’s still one of the best prep arms in the class. He’s undersized so maybe the projection is limited but the arm speed is certainly there and he’s an exceptional athlete with superb movements in his delivery.
Owen Murphy also doesn’t need to throw particularly hard for the fastball to miss bats. Owen Murphy is a bit short at only 6'0" and he creates a low release point with a deep hip hinge. As a result, he has only a 5.2 ft release height. The fastball has a naturally flat angle and Owen Murphy has average vertical movement; averaging 16.7 IVB on his fastball last summer with 8.1 inches of horizontal action. Murphy has flashed an improved feel for spin this spring and if he can improve the spin efficiency then the fastball could really take off- even more than it already has.
The cutter is his primary secondary pitch. It used to be more of a gyro slider in the low 80s but he’s added considerable power to it this year and is now more 87–88 MPH. The pitch plays beautifully off of the rising fastball with ~8.2" IVB and 3 inches of cut coming from the same tunnel. The pitch misses a lot of bats and projects as at least above-average.
The curveball has a very promising shape. He can really spin it- running the pitch up to 2600 RPMs and he has promising shape. The pitch has heavy spin and is moderately efficient with Murphy averaging -7.6 IVB and 14.6 HB last summer. The pitch is consistently thrown in and around the zone and overwhelms weaker hitters as a result. The pitch has a heavy sweeping shape and the command to profile as a bat misser. The pitch only sits at 75.1 MPH and needs more power to truly be dominant but given the shape and feel for the pitch, I’m still comfortable grading it as an above-average pitch.
The changeup feel is still a work in progress but I like it as well- even if slightly less than the other three pitches. He sits at ~82 MPH and kills a little over 500 RPMs off the fastball. The pitch doesn’t have the best vertical depth, averaging just 10.6 IVB but it has heavy tailing action with 17 HB on average. Murphy shows consistently great arm speed and has feel to pronate at a high level so I’m comfortable projecting an average grade on the still developing changeup.
Owen Murphy throws a lot of strikes. He walked just 2.3% of batters this final year in high school and has always had low walk rates. He has a smooth and incredibly efficient delivery. There is some effort because he rides low and plunges so deep but the delivery is repeated. He’s an exceptional on the mound athlete with mechanics and a history of strike-throwing. That screams above-average control to me.
Owen Murphy is a velocity jump away from greatness. All of his pitches already project fairly well but they just need a tick more to become truly dominant weapons. I think strength and velocity gains are both very possible and even very realistic. None of his pitches jump off the page as elite offerings but all of them have quality potential and the depth of the package could still allow Murphy to sit near the front of a rotation.
