2023 Misc Braves Talk

Carp said:
Where did this idea come from that the Phallies have good starting pitching?

They have Wheeler who is a legit Ace but no one else in their rotation has a FIP below 4.

The only thing interesting about the Phallies is that Trea Turner no longer looks like the worst contract in the majors and I'm sure he'll go back to being a pain in our ass like he always seemed to be when he was with the Nats.
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The Phillies scare me because they clearly have the confidence - they think they can beat anyone. But I'm with you, the love for the rotation is overblown. Aaron Nola hasn't been Aaron Nola, Ranger has been good when healthy, but his peripherals show he's been really lucky, Walker isn't good and Lorenzen is great one game and trash the next. Sanchez is a wildcard, I like that dude. He doesn't walk many, has solid peripherals and is puts up really good start after good start.
 
msstate7 said:
1.2 fWAR
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I prefer bWAR since DRS tends to be a better defensive measurement. Even if you split the difference, Eddie has only been worth .9 WAR while WAR is generally valued at 10 millon per 1 WAR. If you want to use that as an argument to say he's been worth his contract, then go ahead. But we can (and should) easily do better in 2024 for around the same salary. In no realm should he be our top option for LF in 2024.
 
Carp said:
I prefer bWAR since DRS tends to be a better defensive measurement. Even if you split the difference, Eddie has only been worth .9 WAR while WAR is generally valued at 10 millon per 1 WAR. If you want to use that as an argument to say he's been worth his contract, then go ahead. But we can (and should) easily do better in 2024 for around the same salary. In no realm should he be our top option for LF in 2024.
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It's not fielding that's accounting for the difference in his bWAR and fWAR numbers.

DRS has him average at 0 runs and UZR has him at -3.8

Baseball savant, who I'd trust over any of them, has him as -1 overall. +1 fielding and -2 arm which is about how I'd rate him with the eye test. Above average range with a ****ty arm.
 
thewupk said:
It's not fielding that's accounting for the difference in his bWAR and fWAR numbers.

DRS has him average at 0 runs and UZR has him at -3.8

Baseball savant, who I'd trust over any of them, has him as -1 overall. +1 fielding and -2 arm which is about how I'd rate him with the eye test. Above average range with a ****ty arm.
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they need to incorporate IQ in this as well. he is -9 on IQ unfortunately.
 
Carp said:
I prefer bWAR since DRS tends to be a better defensive measurement. Even if you split the difference, Eddie has only been worth .9 WAR while WAR is generally valued at 10 millon per 1 WAR. If you want to use that as an argument to say he's been worth his contract, then go ahead. But we can (and should) easily do better in 2024 for around the same salary. In no realm should he be our top option for LF in 2024.
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Conforto is worth 0.8 bWAR. Joc 0.6 bWAR. “Easily do better” is not how I would phrase it.

Here’s the larger point I’m trying to make. If Joc or Conforto want to sign for 1 year 9 million and no buyout, that’s great. It might be a slight upgrade. But Eddie at 1 year becomes easily replaceable if he sucks. The easiest position to fill at the deadline is a platoon outfield.
 
thewupk said:
He does do some dumb ****.

Now let's talk about a surpringlsy great number out of baseball savant. Ozuna's xWOBA is in the top 4% of baseball.

What a ****ing turnaround.
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I don't think any of us had Ozuna replicating his 2020 season from May 1st on. Definitely a pleasant surprise.
 
Soroka recalled, Heller optioned per the Braves twitter account. Does this change Soroka's time clock ?
 
DirkPiggler said:
I don't think any of us had Ozuna replicating his 2020 season from May 1st on. Definitely a pleasant surprise.
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I think I mentioned Ozuna was going to have a bounce back season prior to the season. Not sure I would have even dreamed this good. I didn't think he was ever this good in 2020.. but I am old now and 2020 was 10 years ago. That said, I also said cut his arse when he was hittting .080 and popping up everything.
 
Heyward said:
Soroka recalled, Heller optioned per the Braves twitter account. Does this change Soroka's time clock ?
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Only if Soroka stays up the rest of the season which I doubt. I suspect he gets 2 starts. Today and then on Sunday agaisnt Pittsburgh. Braves will likely bring Vines or someone else back up for Monday since it's a double header.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I think I mentioned Ozuna was going to have a bounce back season prior to the season. Not sure I would have even dreamed this good. I didn't think he was ever this good in 2020.. but I am old now and 2020 was 10 years ago. That said, I also said cut his arse when he was hittting .080 and popping up everything.
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A bounce back wouldn't have surprised me, with bounce back defined as getting to an .800-ish OPS. Doing it on the level Ozuna has since essentially May 1st was a shock.
 
chop2chip said:
When was the last time we won three series on a west coast trip?
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Not since 2013 at least. In '21 we had that great late season road trip going 7-3, including sweeping the Padres. But we lost the first series to the Giants.

I should add that the Braves typically don't play three series on a west coast trip.
 
I know it is way to early to discuss, but for a team with a farm system near the bottom of the rankings, the Braves will have some significant starting pitching depth options to sort through this offseason.

Strider and Elder can pretty much be penciled in barring injury. One would think Soroka and Wright would also have spots when healthy.

Decisions need to be made on Fried and Morton (by the player and then by the team). I'm of the opinion allowing Fried to walk in a year would be criminal given what he could bring back in trade vs the compensation pick. Of course, the braves have tended to prefer the pick.
 
OcalaBrave said:
I know it is way to early to discuss, but for a team with a farm system near the bottom of the rankings, the Braves will have some significant starting pitching depth options to sort through this offseason.

Strider and Elder can pretty much be penciled in barring injury. One would think Soroka and Wright would also have spots when healthy.

Decisions need to be made on Fried and Morton (by the player and then by the team). I'm of the opinion allowing Fried to walk in a year would be criminal given what he could bring back in trade vs the compensation pick. Of course, the braves have tended to prefer the pick.
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I don't think we're fully prepared to trade away Fried at this point, given the uncertainty of the rest of the staff. I don't think the return for 1 year of Fried will be enough to off-set his value to us for next year.

However, we do have a bit of a roster crunch on the horizon regarding our starting pitchers. Given that we're seemingly trying to manipulate Soroka's clock, I think that is a sign we will indeed offer him arby. Ian Anderson will be back at some point next year and hopefully he gets back to the mid rotation guy he was previously. AJSS is knocking on the door. Waldrep isn't far behind given that he's a college guy. Even Dodd and Shuster have enough upside to at least be back end starters.

First world problems.
 
OcalaBrave said:
I know it is way to early to discuss, but for a team with a farm system near the bottom of the rankings, the Braves will have some significant starting pitching depth options to sort through this offseason.

Strider and Elder can pretty much be penciled in barring injury. One would think Soroka and Wright would also have spots when healthy.

Decisions need to be made on Fried and Morton (by the player and then by the team). I'm of the opinion allowing Fried to walk in a year would be criminal given what he could bring back in trade vs the compensation pick. Of course, the braves have tended to prefer the pick.
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next year the Braves will be looking to repeat as WS champions. Having Fried anchor that is WAY MORE VALUABLE than any package a team could provide. I could get behind an arguement that letting Fried walk would be criminal..


all that said, I guess it would depend on package retruning... but what team is going to trade a quality MLB pitcher for another quality MLB pitcher with less control. I mean would the Soxs trade Cease for Fried.. why would they.. why would the Braves do that trade too.. But Fried for prospects is a HARD NO..
 
Carp said:
I don't think we're fully prepared to trade away Fried at this point, given the uncertainty of the rest of the staff. I don't think the return for 1 year of Fried will be enough to off-set his value to us for next year.

However, we do have a bit of a roster crunch on the horizon regarding our starting pitchers. Given that we're seemingly trying to manipulate Soroka's clock, I think that is a sign we will indeed offer him arby. Ian Anderson will be back at some point next year and hopefully he gets back to the mid rotation guy he was previously. AJSS is knocking on the door. Waldrep isn't far behind given that he's a college guy. Even Dodd and Shuster have enough upside to at least be back end starters.

First world problems.
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It makes me wonder about I. Anderson.. wonder if they will change his arm angle slightly to get him a bit more spin. Since they are rebuilding him anyway, maybe a mechanical change is also rebuilt.. (a la Strider)
 
Carp said:
I don't think we're fully prepared to trade away Fried at this point, given the uncertainty of the rest of the staff. I don't think the return for 1 year of Fried will be enough to off-set his value to us for next year.

However, we do have a bit of a roster crunch on the horizon regarding our starting pitchers. Given that we're seemingly trying to manipulate Soroka's clock, I think that is a sign we will indeed offer him arby. Ian Anderson will be back at some point next year and hopefully he gets back to the mid rotation guy he was previously. AJSS is knocking on the door. Waldrep isn't far behind given that he's a college guy. Even Dodd and Shuster have enough upside to at least be back end starters.

First world problems.
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You didn't even mention Ynoa
 
OcalaBrave said:
I know it is way to early to discuss, but for a team with a farm system near the bottom of the rankings, the Braves will have some significant starting pitching depth options to sort through this offseason.

Strider and Elder can pretty much be penciled in barring injury. One would think Soroka and Wright would also have spots when healthy.

Decisions need to be made on Fried and Morton (by the player and then by the team). I'm of the opinion allowing Fried to walk in a year would be criminal given what he could bring back in trade vs the compensation pick. Of course, the braves have tended to prefer the pick.
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Dont listen to anyone about the Braves farm system, we are #1 in producing good MLB players over the last 5-6 years. Thats the important part. Pitching depth is an illusion. Soroka should never be counted on. Wright has missed almost all of this year and has only had 1 good MLB season. He is a prime TJ candidate next year. Morton is pretty old, I want to bring him back but you never know when age/injury catches up to him. AJSS spending a whole year at AAA wouldnt be a terrible thing. You never know if Elder might struggle in his sophmore year. So theres never enough starting pitching. Expect atleast 2 of our starting 5 to miss most of the season and you will rarely be wrong. Whoever starts the year as our 6th starter on the depth chart will likely get 20+ starts and thats assuming we have relatively good luck with injuries. The one guy I would count on is Fried. Free agent years at around his age are prime bets for career years.
 
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