2024 Field

cajunrevenge said:
No, I am looking at far more than 1 election cycle. Trump has underperformed what Romney/McCain did in VA by 2-3 points. If Republicans ran a non-crazy candidate I think VA would be in play for them.Unfortunately that doesnt seem the route they are going for the foreseeable future. I think Trump wins Texas by 7-8 points which is 1-2 better than he did last time. It would be too close for me to make that bet with you but I would bet Trump loses VA by atleast 5 points. He has still yet to break 45% in VA. I wouldnt bet on it but I wont be surprised if Trump has a smaller margin of victory in Texas than he did in 2020.

Part of the reason I see Texas flipping first is because of the pace of new registered voters. VA has added from what I can see less than 300k new voters since 2020. Texas meanwhile has added 1.4 million new registered voters. For context Texas added 1.2 million new registered voters from 2000-2012. I would guess new voters in Texas are splitting 60/40 in favor of Democrats. That would be a 200k vote swing right there. Now I did pull that number completely out of my ass but its my prediction for how that breaks down.
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Vance, Younkin, RDS, Vivek, possibly Tulsi and Abbot are the front runners currently for 2028. Somehow, they are crazy......Right....

And the bolded part is also ridiculous and does not reflect actual results.

What we do know, is that VA was a strong Republican state as recently as 2004. And in 2016, no candidate got over 50% of the vote.
 
cajunrevenge said:
No, I am looking at far more than 1 election cycle. Trump has underperformed what Romney/McCain did in VA by 2-3 points. If Republicans ran a non-crazy candidate I think VA would be in play for them.Unfortunately that doesnt seem the route they are going for the foreseeable future. I think Trump wins Texas by 7-8 points which is 1-2 better than he did last time. It would be too close for me to make that bet with you but I would bet Trump loses VA by atleast 5 points. He has still yet to break 45% in VA. I wouldnt bet on it but I wont be surprised if Trump has a smaller margin of victory in Texas than he did in 2020.

Part of the reason I see Texas flipping first is because of the pace of new registered voters. VA has added from what I can see less than 300k new voters since 2020. Texas meanwhile has added 1.4 million new registered voters. For context Texas added 1.2 million new registered voters from 2000-2012. I would guess new voters in Texas are splitting 60/40 in favor of Democrats. That would be a 200k vote swing right there. Now I did pull that number completely out of my ass but its my prediction for how that breaks down.
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Vance, Younkin, RDS, Vivek, possibly Tulsi and Abbot are the front runners currently for 2028. Somehow, they are crazy......Right....

And the bolded part is also ridiculous and does not reflect actual results.

What we do know, is that VA was a strong Republican state as recently as 2004. And in 2016, no candidate got over 50% of the vote. And this ignores the fact that VA, TX, and FL are all run by popular Republican governors who all appear to be strong candidates for the 2028 election.
 
Carp said:
Vance, Younkin, RDS, Vivek, possibly Tulsi and Abbot are the front runners currently for 2028. Somehow, they are crazy......Right....

And the bolded part is also ridiculous and does not reflect actual results.

What we do know, is that VA was a strong Republican state as recently as 2004. And in 2016, no candidate got over 50% of the vote. And this ignores the fact that VA, TX, and FL are all run by popular Republican governors who all appear to be strong candidates for the 2028 election.
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Every single R candidate for hte next 20 years will have the 'Trump stain' and will be portrayed to be even more radical.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Tell you what, show me the reporting by right leaning media having a discussion about Trumps cognitive decline and mental issues. Show me right wing media calling out Trump for claiming he passed an acuity test when it was a test to see if he had dementia. Show me the right wing media demanding those test results released. If Biden took a cognitive test, said he aced it, and refused to release the results we both know right wing media would be demanding it was released, and even after it was released would claim it was fake or rigged. Much like the birth certificate.
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You are upset about the 1 right leaning major news outlet, but don't care at all about all of the other major news outlets that are clearly left wing biased. Got it.

And by the way, it's not even an opinion. There have been countless studies that show nearly all of the major news networks have a left wing bias.
 
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Carp said:
Vance, Younkin, RDS, Vivek, possibly Tulsi and Abbot are the front runners currently for 2028. Somehow, they are crazy......Right....

And the bolded part is also ridiculous and does not reflect actual results.

What we do know, is that VA was a strong Republican state as recently as 2004. And in 2016, no candidate got over 50% of the vote.
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I will concede those people are not crazy. But the MAGA crowd might push them to be crazy. Younkin could win VA. No chance in hell he wins a presidential primary so long as the party is Trump first. RDS's brand took a big hit for challenging Dear Leader in the primaries. Not sure he will ever recover. Vivek would just be hilarious. He might be a little too brown for the Trump first party. Tulsi is just comical. And Abbott just needs to be pushed down a flight of stairs. You ruined my day just by the suggestion that turd burglar has shot in hell of being the 2028 nominee.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I will concede those people are not crazy. But the MAGA crowd might push them to be crazy. Younkin could win VA. No chance in hell he wins a presidential primary so long as the party is Trump first. RDS's brand took a big hit for challenging Dear Leader in the primaries. Not sure he will
ever recover. Vivek would just be hilarious. He might be a little too brown for the Trump first party. Tulsi is just comical. And Abbott just needs to be pushed down a flight of stairs. You ruined my day just by the suggestion that turd burglar has shot in hell of being the 2028 nominee.
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Its obvious what is going to happen. Every single candidate that isn't a Democrat will be lambasted as WORSE THAN TRUMP.

These people are morons.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I will concede those people are not crazy. But the MAGA crowd might push them to be crazy. Younkin could win VA. No chance in hell he wins a presidential primary so long as the party is Trump first. RDS's brand took a big hit for challenging Dear Leader in the primaries. Not sure he will ever recover. Vivek would just be hilarious. He might be a little too brown for the Trump first party. Tulsi is just comical. And Abbott just needs to be pushed down a flight of stairs. You ruined my day just by the suggestion that turd burglar has shot in hell of being the 2028 nominee.
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Tulsi is comical, but literally ended Kamala's race in 2020. Right......

Vivek is a more well spoken Trump, without all of the insult hurling. There is a reason he has gained so much popularity despite not being a politician.

Abbot is a very popular Governor and his strong border stance and rejecting Biden's orders have emboldened him to conservatives and independents alike.
 
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thethe said:
The left is terrified of Tulsi - She would win by an incredible majority once she is front and center with the country.
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I would have voted for Tulsi had she won the Dem primary in 2020. She was more of a blue dog Dem, which I preferred to Trump in 2020. I liked her a lot then and like her even more now.
 
cajunrevenge said:
And who determines what are lies? Can the left media not unilaterally declare something a lie and not report on it but the right media can? What sense does that make. I think Bidens age would have been more of a story with the media if both candidates werent old farts with serious cognitive issues. I dont take issues with criticism of the media. I take issue with partisan criticism of the media. Does some media cover for the left, sure, does right media cover for the right? Oh hell yeah. In fact they have to because any right media that doesnt gets boycotted. Or do you not remember the whole Fox News Dominion **** where Fox News was caught saying they knew the election fraud claims were BS but felt they had to cover for Trump so their Republican viewers wouldnt turn on them.
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The fact that he’s ****ing mentally toast and obviously has been for years

This is whole schtick from you is really sad and pitiful
 
Carp said:
You are upset about the 1 right leaning major news outlet, but don't care at all about all of the other major news outlets that are left wing biased. Got it.
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I dont care about either actually. I dont give a **** about what media is partisan to who. I personally choose my media based on who was fair to Ron Paul in 2012. Some of which are right leaning some of which are left leaning. I guess I am different than most other people in that I dont get mad if the media I watch doesnt slant their coverage to fit my views. People get mad that other people can watch media that paints things in a way they dont like and I will never understand it.
 
Tapate50 said:
The fact that he’s ****ing mentally toast and obviously has been for years

This is whole schtick from you is really sad and pitiful
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Ok so I see the problem here, you dont know the difference between a fact and an opinion. Donald Trump is a convicted felon. That is a fact. Donald Trump was found liable for defaming his sexual assault victim. That is a fact. Joe Biden being mentally toast is an opinion. I get that you believe it. Personally I thought Biden was mentally toast at 30 years old and was embarrassed he was even VP. I and many others think Trump is mentally toast. Is it a fact because a lot of people believe it? No. Its still an opinion.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I dont care about either actually. I dont give a **** about what media is partisan to who. I personally choose my media based on who was fair to Ron Paul in 2012. Some of which are right leaning some of which are left leaning. I guess I am different than most other people in that I dont get mad if the media I watch doesnt slant their coverage to fit my views. People get mad that other people can watch media that paints things in a way they dont like and I will never understand it.
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You've ran cover for every leftist outlet since 2016. Nobody believes you bro.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I dont care about either actually. I dont give a **** about what media is partisan to who. I personally choose my media based on who was fair to Ron Paul in 2012. Some of which are right leaning some of which are left leaning. I guess I am different than most other people in that I dont get mad if the media I watch doesnt slant their coverage to fit my views. People get mad that other people can watch media that paints things in a way they dont like and I will never understand it.
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Your posts suggest otherwise.
 
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