sturg33
I
Did Youngkin veto a stronger bill that I'm not familiar with? If so, shame on him
2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
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Did Youngkin veto a stronger bill that I'm not familiar with? If so, shame on him
He specifically softened his earlier stances becuase he understand the reality of the country we live in.
But you priased him for it.
SOFT
sturg33
I
If the legislature put a 6 week ban on his desk and vetoed it. Then I revoke my praise
Otherwise, I'm glad he moved my cause more to the right, not as much as RDS was able to of course, but progress nonetheless.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Obama reportedly telling Biden he should consider dropping out. He’s FINNISH
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Puppet Master telling the puppet the show's over.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
July 1st the Supreme Court ruled the President has immunity for official actions and we can't interpret what his motives were. 12 days later Trump gets shot in the head. But thanks to your Supreme Court ruling Biden can tell the CIA to kill Trump for national security reasons and he is completely immune from any prosecution. So he can try as much as he wants. Happy campaigning!
BREAKING:
Donald Trump has fallen asleep during Don Jr’s speech. Looks like
Donald Trump was one of the many participating in the 20% drop
off in viewership of the Republican National Convention since 2016.
Do you ever stop falling for fake storys? This has been routinely been proven false.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Tapate50
Well-known member
Tapate50
Well-known member
Definitively the answer is no
Trumps lead in national polls is now at 2.6, his highest lead over Biden all year. It's actually his highest lead in polls over any Dem POTUS candidate since he won the nomination in 2016.
Lead in PA is up to 3.5 points. Only 1 major poll since June has Biden with a lead, which was a 1 point lead in mid June.
Lead in PA is up to 3.5 points. Only 1 major poll since June has Biden with a lead, which was a 1 point lead in mid June.
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acesfull86
Well-known member
https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election
Here’s Nate Silver’s theory as to what’s going on at 538
summary:
I’m not sure that Klain or anyone else should get their hopes up from the 538 model, however. At best, all it’s really saying is that Biden will probably win because he’s an incumbent: the polls have very little influence on the 538 forecast at this point. And at worst, it might be buggy. It’s not easy to understand what it’s doing or why it’s doing it.
…
Whereas our mix is roughly 70:30 in favor of polls, theirs is apparently about 15:85 in favor of fundamentals.
Now, that could at least theoretically be correct if they think the fundamentals are the more reliable indicator. The problem is, they don’t seem to think that, or at least not based on this chart they’ve published. Look at the error bar for their “fundamentals-only forecast”. It’s incredibly wide — notably larger than the error for their polling component. In fact, the 95th percentile probability distribution on their fundamentals estimate covers everything from roughly Trump +20 to Biden +30 (!), results that are nearly impossible in today’s highly polarized political environment.
So the chart is telling us that Morris doesn’t think the fundamentals are very informative at all. And yet, his model seemingly assigns 85 percent of the weight to the fundamentals. (I’m going to use terms like “seemingly” a lot because of the lack of transparency in what the 538 model is actually doing.) As a principle of model design, it’s almost axiomatic that if you’re blending two or more components into an average, you’ll want to place more weight on the more reliable component. But they’re doing just the opposite.