2024 Field

https://reason.com/2024/08/01/trump-and-harris-are-just-making-it-up-as-they-go/

A few minutes before 10 a.m. on Wednesday, former President Donald Trump dropped a plan to completely overhaul the relationship between millions of older Americans and the federal government.

"SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY," Trump shouted from his Truth Social account.

If implemented, that would be a hugely expensive policy change. According to one quick estimate by a former White House chief economist, it would reduce federal revenue by $1.5 trillion over 10 years and would add $1.8 trillion to the national debt. (The extra cost is the result of interest on the new debt that would be racked up in the absence of that revenue.) It would also accelerate Social Security's slide into insolvency. And, obviously, it would be a big tax break for Americans who collect Social Security checks—but not a tax break that would be particularly good at fostering economic growth.

Despite all that, the most notable thing about Trump's announcement was what it didn't include. There was no attempt to reckon with those figures, for example. No surrogates were dispatched to explain why this change is necessary or good for the economy or country. No press releases went out. There was, of course, no attempt to explain what government programs would be cut to offset the drop in revenue. For that matter, there had been no discussion of this idea at the Republican National Convention. It was not mentioned in Trump's (long) acceptance speech and was not included in the party's platform.

Like so much else in the Trump era, this looks like an idea that went from the former president's head to his social media account with very few stops in between.



Coming as it did on Wednesday morning, the "no taxes on Social Security" plan stood in stark contrast to the news the Trump campaign had made just one day earlier. On Tuesday, Trump's campaign had officially (and gleefully) sunk the Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025"—a 900-page document in which the conservative think tank had outlined an extensive policy plan for Trump's prospective second term. The project had been headed by Paul Dans, who had served in the Trump administration, and was central to the institutional-wide pivot toward populism that Kevin Roberts, Heritage's president, had executed in recent years.

In a statement, two of Trump's top campaign officials didn't merely bury Project 2025 but also issued a threat.

"Reports of Project 2025's demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign—it will not end well for you," said Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita.

Translation: How dare anyone try to substitute actual policy substance for whatever random thought might fall out of the former president's head on a Wednesday morning?

 
https://reason.com/2024/08/01/trump-and-harris-are-just-making-it-up-as-they-go/

A few minutes before 10 a.m. on Wednesday, former President Donald Trump dropped a plan to completely overhaul the relationship between millions of older Americans and the federal government.

"SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY," Trump shouted from his Truth Social account.

If implemented, that would be a hugely expensive policy change. According to one quick estimate by a former White House chief economist, it would reduce federal revenue by $1.5 trillion over 10 years and would add $1.8 trillion to the national debt. (The extra cost is the result of interest on the new debt that would be racked up in the absence of that revenue.) It would also accelerate Social Security's slide into insolvency. And, obviously, it would be a big tax break for Americans who collect Social Security checks—but not a tax break that would be particularly good at fostering economic growth.

Despite all that, the most notable thing about Trump's announcement was what it didn't include. There was no attempt to reckon with those figures, for example. No surrogates were dispatched to explain why this change is necessary or good for the economy or country. No press releases went out. There was, of course, no attempt to explain what government programs would be cut to offset the drop in revenue. For that matter, there had been no discussion of this idea at the Republican National Convention. It was not mentioned in Trump's (long) acceptance speech and was not included in the party's platform.

Like so much else in the Trump era, this looks like an idea that went from the former president's head to his social media account with very few stops in between.



Coming as it did on Wednesday morning, the "no taxes on Social Security" plan stood in stark contrast to the news the Trump campaign had made just one day earlier. On Tuesday, Trump's campaign had officially (and gleefully) sunk the Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025"—a 900-page document in which the conservative think tank had outlined an extensive policy plan for Trump's prospective second term. The project had been headed by Paul Dans, who had served in the Trump administration, and was central to the institutional-wide pivot toward populism that Kevin Roberts, Heritage's president, had executed in recent years.

In a statement, two of Trump's top campaign officials didn't merely bury Project 2025 but also issued a threat.

"Reports of Project 2025's demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign—it will not end well for you," said Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita.

Translation: How dare anyone try to substitute actual policy substance for whatever random thought might fall out of the former president's head on a Wednesday morning?


I’m going to laugh if the party that has been shouting “have more kids” from the rooftops winds up hitched to a wagon of enormous tax breaks for the elderly.
 
Of course Trump has no plan and understanding about anything... just shouts whatever was put in his ear last.

But I agree there should be no taxes on SS. It's a double tax

Of course, can't do anything without cutting spending - or else we print more inflation which offsets any cuts
 
All of what we are seeing is temporary. When the bottom of the economy falls out nobody is going to care about the Kamala puff pieces.

She will be forced to explain her plans or else her support will crater.

The only thing that has been shown in the last few weeks is that legacy media still holds way too much impact on Americans lives.
 
One thing is for sure is that AI bubble burst is going to change a lot. Lots of tech people going to be looking for work.

Better brush up their excel skills!
 
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All of what we are seeing is temporary. When the bottom of the economy falls out nobody is going to care about the Kamala puff pieces.

She will be forced to explain her plans or else her support will crater.

The only thing that has been shown in the last few weeks is that legacy media still holds way too much impact on Americans lives.

When I predicted that polls would magically flip when trump secured the nomination, this is what I meant.

Trump has gone from massacring Harris to a toss up and losing in a matter of weeks
 
When I predicted that polls would magically flip when trump secured the nomination, this is what I meant.

Trump has gone from massacring Harris to a toss up and losing in a matter of weeks

I'm aware you predicted Biden would forced out ('dropped out') and then a newly inserted candidate would get disgusting praise and historical record revisions done for their benefit which would result in Trump going from an overwhelming favorite to not only win the election but the popular vote against the candidate at the time to a 'tight' race against who is running now.

Well done!
 
I'm aware you predicted Biden would forced out ('dropped out') and then a newly inserted candidate would get disgusting praise and historical record revisions done for their benefit which would result in Trump going from an overwhelming favorite to not only win the election but the popular vote against the candidate at the time to a 'tight' race against who is running now.

Well done!

Well I certainly predicted that the dems would dump Biden, but you assured my IQ was too low to understand that Biden was a political juggernaut who would landslide everyone but Trump

I certainly predicted that polls would magically flip based on nothing changing outside of the nominees being selected. I'd assumed it would have happened regardless, including Biden, but dems had bigger plans to dump him from the beginning (hence the early debate)

And I predicted that RDS or frankly any of the candidates would have fared much better against any dem nominee. Dems will crawl through glass to vote against Trump, and he's too stupid to stay focused and disciplined to ensure we focus on the disaster in front us. He's proven that by running away from conservative policies, which plays right into the dems hands. Now he's just throwing **** at the wall like social security taxes and paying off our debt with bitcoin

You are free to disagree with all the above, and you did constantly at every turn. But the reality is anyone could have beaten Joe Biden, and anyone can beat beyond Biden can beat Donald Trump.

Unless your position is that the polls are fake now
 
The polls are not fake. The polls are just shots of time. This period will fade.

But I guess magically can be loosely interpreted.
 
The polls are not fake. The polls are just shots of time. This period will fade.

But I guess magically can be loosely interpreted.

Do you think Trump and his surrogates have figured out how to approach this election yet though? Are they succeeding right now in your view?
 
Do you think Trump and his surrogates have figured out how to approach this election yet though? Are they succeeding right now in your view?

Strategy is not to be judged over short periods of time. Before any of this happened trumps pollsters said it would. Let’s see where this election sits in a month or two when everyone realizes there is nothing real or authentic about Harris.
 
Strategy is not to be judged over short periods of time. Before any of this happened trumps pollsters said it would. Let’s see where this election sits in a month or two when everyone realizes there is nothing real or authentic about Harris.

Strategy cannot be judged in the short-term, but I’m asking you to predict. Do you think the current approach by Trump and his team are the right ones?
 
Strategy cannot be judged in the short-term, but I’m asking you to predict. Do you think the current approach by Trump and his team are the right ones?

Absolutely. Narrative needed to be shifted from where it was a few days ago. Now as the economy begins to tank and the AI bubble bursts masking the underbelly of a ****ty reality the message linking Harris to all of this will set in and when she tries to deflect Trump will just reiterate it’s another thing she is being fake on as she has consistently raised “bidenomics”.
 
this poll, for example, is tied just 10 days later

id call that pretty magical

Most polls still show Trump in the lead

Most of the presidential betting places still have Trump in the lead

Guess at which ones you are embracing. lol

This is more than likely the best Kamala will do because it's the honeymoon phase. She's new and it more than likely fade.
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/elon-musk-pac-voter-data-trump-harris.html

The ad then displays a website for a group called America PAC.

The website says it will help the viewer register to vote. But once a user clicks “Register to Vote,” the experience he or she will have can be very different, depending on where they live.

If a user lives in a state that is not considered competitive in the presidential election, like California or Wyoming for example, they’ll be prompted to enter their email addresses and ZIP code and then directed quickly to a voter registration page for their state, or back to the original sign-up section.

But for users who enter a ZIP code that indicates they live in a battleground state, like Pennsylvania or Georgia, the process is very different.


Rather than be directed to their state’s voter registration page, they instead are directed to a highly detailed personal information form, prompted to enter their address, cellphone number and age.

If they agree to submit all that, the system still does not steer them to a voter registration page. Instead, it shows them a “thank you” page.

So that person who wanted help registering to vote? In the end, they got no help at all registering. But they did hand over priceless personal data to a political operation.

Specifically, a political action committee created by Tesla
CEO Elon Musk, one aimed at giving the Republican presidential nominee Trump an advantage in his campaign against Vice President Kamala Harris, the de facto Democratic nominee.

Well that’s not great.
 
Most polls still show Trump in the lead

Most of the presidential betting places still have Trump in the lead

Guess at which ones you are embracing. lol

This is more than likely the best Kamala will do because it's the honeymoon phase. She's new and it more than likely fade.

Silver is who I trust most and he has it a toss up now
 
Silver is who I trust most and he has it a toss up now

Yeah, but just last week he said Trump. A good chance he goes back to Trump when the Harris honeymoon is done.

Harris will be exposed to the world like Biden was in the future Harris-Trump debate.
 
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