2024 Field

thethe said:
Polls aren't fake - You just lack the ability to properly interpret them.
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I understand perfectly.

When they are favorable to Trump, they are evidence of a landslide.

When they are unfavorable of Trump, they are a point in time snapshot not reflective of reality and anyone who reads them is stupid and incapable of interpreting them
 
thethe said:
Polls aren't fake - You just lack the ability to properly interpret them.
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Serious question for you: why are you so quick to dismiss the current energy around Harris as an unsustainable honeymoon effect, but so quick to trust that the immediate aftermath of the first debate was a sign that Trump was about to roll to victory? Both were short-term bumps due to the recency of specific events. But it sounds a lot like you’re projecting your own views on the race onto the general population that hasn’t been earned by electoral history.
 
mqt said:
Serious question for you: why are you so quick to dismiss the current energy around Harris as an unsustainable honeymoon effect, but so quick to trust that the immediate aftermath of the first debate was a sign that Trump was about to roll to victory? Both were short-term bumps due to the recency of specific events. But it sounds a lot like you’re projecting your own views on the race onto the general population that hasn’t been earned by electoral history.
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The entire media turned on Biden after the debate. We both know they didn't banish him from the ticket simply because they thought he was too old. If most of the polls still showed him leading or tied after the debate, they would have Weekend at Bernie'd him through the election. Everyone saw the writing on the wall.
 
1 reason to doubt her recent surge in polls is that her favorability factor since the start of 2022 has never risen above 40%. Now all of a sudden in the last 2 weeks it has about an 8% increase? I can accept some of that is organic, getting pushed to the top of the ticket, but I find it unlikely most people's opinion of her drastically changed in a span of 2 weeks.
 
Carp said:
The entire media turned on Biden after the debate. We both know they didn't banish him from the ticket simply because they thought he was too old. If most of the polls still showed him leading or tied after the debate, they would have Weekend at Bernie'd him through the election. Everyone saw the writing on the wall.
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I guess my point is less that Biden was likely to beat Trump and more that thethe seems to conveniently ignore or dismiss any other evidence because he’s confident the rest of us will just eventually listen to reason and agree with his worldview. I don’t doubt that the current circumstances of the race are temporary. But just because Dems can’t assume exponential growth in Harris’ polling, it would also be foolish to disregard it as unsustainable. It *is* plausible that Harris carries young people so well that it’s a bloodbath in November. It’s also entirely plausible that she turns back into a pumpkin after the convention and Trump wins. thethe just seems to completely ignore that his stance isn’t necessarily the one shared by everyone else.
 
Carp said:
1 reason to doubt her recent surge in polls is that her favorability factor since the start of 2022 has never risen above 40%. Now all of a sudden in the last 2 weeks it has about an 8% increase? I can accept some of that is organic, getting pushed to the top of the ticket, but I find it unlikely most people's opinion of her drastically changed in a span of 2 weeks.
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I completely agree with this point, and I’m genuinely curious to see how it shakes out. It would just be an interesting approach to see that growth in popularity and dismiss the possibility that more of it is sustainable than we both might think.
 
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I’m having some difficulty parsing if certain segments of the Right are just trying to see what sticks to the wall or if they’re actually nervous about the ticket, because the sheer amount of takes that amount to Dems having Buyer’s Remorse with their new ticket is bordering on silliness. Even if it is because we’re a monolith, there’s just nothing happening to indicate Dems are suddenly worried about the results thus far.
 
Carp said:
1 reason to doubt her recent surge in polls is that her favorability factor since the start of 2022 has never risen above 40%. Now all of a sudden in the last 2 weeks it has about an 8% increase? I can accept some of that is organic, getting pushed to the top of the ticket, but I find it unlikely most people's opinion of her drastically changed in a span of 2 weeks.
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Similar trend with R

“Trump has also seen an improvement in his popularity, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight analysis. On July 21, the website found 41.4 percent of voters had a positive perception of the former president against 53.8 percent who were negative, giving a net favorability rating of -12.3. The rating improved to -8.4 on August 8, when Trump had a favorability rating of 43.3 percent and an unfavorable rating of 51.7 percent with American voters.“
 
chop2chip said:
Similar trend with R

“Trump has also seen an improvement in his popularity, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight analysis. On July 21, the website found 41.4 percent of voters had a positive perception of the former president against 53.8 percent who were negative, giving a net favorability rating of -12.3. The rating improved to -8.4 on August 8, when Trump had a favorability rating of 43.3 percent and an unfavorable rating of 51.7 percent with American voters.“
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True. But Trump's favorability has been solidly over 40% since October of last year, peaking at 43.8% on Feb 29. The assassination attempt certainly gave him a sympathy boost, but ultimately it only went up about 2%.

Regardless, Harris is certainly an improvement for them over post-debate Sleepy Joe. As of today, it's a close race. Might even give Harris a slight edge in popularity vote. But it's worth wondering if her momentum has peaked. At some point, she has to talk actual policy without the benefit of a teleprompter. And she has consistently performed pretty poorly when put on the spot.
 
sturg33 said:
I'm just confused. You have spent the last w years shoving polls down our throats. And now saying we're stupid for looking at polls?
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Thethe is making the point that same poll was +5 Harris the last time it was released and this time it's +1 Harris. Thethe is saying the honeymoon period is coming to a close.
 
I'm kind of surprised he hasn't taken a stand yet. I imagine he will eventually announce he is voting no.

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sturg33 said:
The polls today show Harris higher than she's ever been
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And there's still a lag effect, meaning her numbers haven't stopped rising yet.

Her campaign is killing it and she still hasn't had to learn a 2nd speech yet. They are running circles around Orange Jesus, who appears to have even run out of makeup.
 
The world’s most popular podcaster has, sort of, but not really, thrown his support to one the 2024 presidential race’s least popular candidates.

On Thursday, Joe Rogan said he preferred Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent, for president. “He’s the only one that makes sense to me,” Mr. Rogan said, as a guest on a podcast hosted by Lex Fridman, and called Mr. Kennedy a “legitimate guy.”

Mr. Rogan’s devoted following, one that leans young, male and numbers in the tens of millions, is highly coveted. His remarks about Mr. Kennedy, uttered on a show with a far smaller reach than his own, nonetheless set off a frenzied response.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/09/...e_code=1.B04.vq5z.QmbHel7wY7hK&smid=url-share

I'm loving it. Hopefully, RFK Jr. stays in and his running mate spends her entire fortune on helping him get on all the ballots.
 
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