This is just false, though. Recent polling averages in MI, PA and WI are all within 0.5 points. That’s not a strong Trump lead on that alone since those 3 states alone would win Harris the election. That’s basically the definition of a coin flip.
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This is just false, though. Recent polling averages in MI, PA and WI are all within 0.5 points. That’s not a strong Trump lead on that alone since those 3 states alone would win Harris the election. That’s basically the definition of a coin flip.
While Trump does pull those sort of voters, he has never pulled them at super high rates. Where Trump really succeeds is rallying conservatives that would otherwise be unlikely to vote. And, for good or bad, that segment of voters are people that are generally not highly educated and in the lower class. And these sort of people are super unlikely to participate in any sort of polling.
This is called response bias and why the polls always understate trumps support.
Fair. This is my andecotable take from growing up in a small town in Arkansas. The uneducated conservatives vote en masse. lol
I do think in 2028, we will see a bit of a return to reality for both sides. The MAGA crowd will likely lose some steam without a cult leader running for office. Vance is a very solid candidate, but he isn't Trump and I don't think he will be able to rally them nearly as well. On the flip side, he should be far more appealing to independents than Trump is, if he ends up being the candidate.
And aside from Biden, the Dems haven't done a particularly good job of selecting candidates that are appealing to independents in the last 3 elections. If they lose this November, I think they will take it as a much needed reality check and abandon many of the far left ideologies that they have pushed the last 4 years (much like they did with "open borders" when they found out how unpopular this policy was).
And aside from Biden, the Dems haven't done a particularly good job of selecting candidates that are appealing to independents in the last 3 elections. If they lose this November, I think they will take it as a much needed reality check and abandon many of the far left ideologies that they have pushed the last 4 years (much like they did with "open borders" when they found out how unpopular this policy was).
I do think in 2028, we will see a bit of a return to reality for both sides. The MAGA crowd will likely lose some steam without a cult leader running for office. Vance is a very solid candidate, but he isn't Trump and I don't think he will be able to rally them nearly as well. On the flip side, he should be far more appealing to independents than Trump is, if he ends up being the candidate.
And aside from Biden, the Dems haven't done a particularly good job of selecting candidates that are appealing to independents in the last 3 elections. If they lose this November, I think they will take it as a much needed reality check and abandon many of the far left ideologies that they have pushed the last 4 years (much like they did with "open borders" when they found out how unpopular this policy was).
And aside from Biden, the Dems haven't done a particularly good job of selecting candidates that are appealing to independents in the last 3 elections. If they lose this November, I think they will take it as a much needed reality check and abandon many of the far left ideologies that they have pushed the last 4 years (much like they did with "open borders" when they found out how unpopular this policy was).
RCP has MI with a +1.2 lead. And with EVERY swing state currently with a Trump lead. Considering WI, MI, and PA tend to vote pretty similarly, it paints a clear picture. Trends are trends dude. So if you are assuming the polls are more accurate this time around, there is no way to describe it as anything more than a fairly solid Trump lead. If the polls have the same margin error as the last 2 elections, it would be a total landslide win.
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Trendlines as you said as well. Election is moving in trumps direction.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Trends also seem to be lagging ... so momentum from last weeks polls, probably doesn't accurately project this week if it continued. I'm not sure her "Trumps gonna shoot us all in the streets" rhetoric is anything but a hail mary at the buzzer. Only the schills and the dopes believe all that.
RCP seems to be ignoring some of the polls others are using, which they’re welcome (and maybe even right) to do. But just saying RCP has Trump +1.3 in Michigan, therefore this isn’t a toss-up just isn’t compelling to me right now. I agree the trend the past 3-4 weeks have been favorable to Trump, but they were highly favorable to Harris right before that. If someone had a gun to my head and made me choose, I’d probably be slightly more confident in Trump because his path is slightly less rigid if you think he wins NC and GA like I do.
But when you say Trump has a solid lead because of Michigan, we’re talking about perhaps less than 50 total people that picked up a phone in Michigan last week from one of a couple polling firms. If you want to call that a lead, you’re welcome to do so.
acesfull86
Well-known member
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Journalists doing journalism…ya love to see it!
Journalists doing journalism…ya love to see it!
VP material.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Meh.
I’m not using just 538 instead. There are plenty of websites that will show you polls that have been conducted and link you to those polls. I’m disinterested in projections and models right now. There are polls conducted last week that show Harris leading in Michigan by a point or two, and polls being conducted showing Trump wining by a point or two. They’re out there, I can link you to them. If RCP doesn’t find them credible and 270toWin does or vice versa, that’s their decision to make. But declaring polling that is basically 50/50 in several key swing states as a solid Trump lead just doesn’t work for me.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Tapate50
Well-known member
I haven't watched anything but the highlights but that NBC interview looks awful for Harris.
Someone needs to tell her she needs to be able to answer a question in a way that offers insight not a word salad.
I'm shocked she didn't bring up McDonalds or a Middle class family.
Someone needs to tell her she needs to be able to answer a question in a way that offers insight not a word salad.
I'm shocked she didn't bring up McDonalds or a Middle class family.
[tw]1848933811641340242[/tw]
Saw this start going around last night around the same time as Halperin’s rumor about a “campaign ending” story being sent around. I doubt there is anything out there Trump has been seen or heard saying that will impact the election, but how bad could it be for this effort to start?
Saw this start going around last night around the same time as Halperin’s rumor about a “campaign ending” story being sent around. I doubt there is anything out there Trump has been seen or heard saying that will impact the election, but how bad could it be for this effort to start?