nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Biden won by narrowly pulling 2-3 states that are traditional Red states. Those states are now trending Red based on recent polls and Trump is still neck and neck in almost every poll. Top that off with the fact that his approval rating remains really poor.
Wisconsin--hard to say if it is trending blue or red. Both sides held serve narrowly in 2022, with the Democratic governor being re-elected at the same time the Republican senator was being re-elected. More recently the blowout State Supreme Court election illustrates the potency of the abortion issue for the Democrats, even in purple and red states.
Arizona--the Kari Lake factor holds sway and has cost the Republicans in all sorts of ways. Don't see that dysfunction going away anytime soon.
Georgia--Warnock needed a runoff but prevailed in the end. Probably the GOP's best chance for a flip. But they need more than Georgia.
PA--Dems won open senate and governor races handily, helped by some poor GOP candidates. Don't see this one flipping.
NV--maybe trending red. The GOP was able to defeat an incumbent Democrat governor. The secret formula seems to be to nominate a normie Republican as opposed to someone like Kari Lake. Will the national party take note?