2024 Minor League Thread

Three Braves play in the Peoria Javelinas' opening day game in the Arizona Fall League. The Javelinas lost in a 15-13 slugfest.

Drake "Not Drew" Baldwin (DH) 2/4, 2 R, 2B, BB
Hayden Harris 1 2/3 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, 42P/25S
Ryan Bourassa 1/3 IP, 1 K, 4P/4S, 2IR-0S
 
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Eh, catchers notoriously take a long time to develop at the big league level. Langeliers was a better prospect than Baldwin and it's taken him 3 years to get to an above average level of play.

Given TDA's age and Murphys good track record, it probably isn't wise to give up on Murphy in favor of a catcher in AAA.
 
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Carp said:
Eh, catchers notoriously take a long time to develop at the big league level. Langeliers was a better prospect than Baldwin and it's taken him 3 years to get to an above average level of play.

Given TDA's age and Murphys good track record, it probably isn't wise to give up on Murphy in favor of a catcher in AAA.
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Given Baldwin’s AAA exit velocities reported… I think Baldwin may be a better prospect than Shea was at this point. Most of Shea’s value was defense. Baldwin is still growing there. I think Baldwin will end up at a different position because I think his bat is going to be too valuable to sit half the time. His patience and exit velocity data is special.
 
Wednesday AFL Wrap:

Drake "Not Drew" Baldwin (C): 2/5, R, 2 RBI, HR (1), 2 K

David McCabe (DH): 1/5, R, 2B (1), 2 K

Drew "Not Drake" Compton (1B): 1/4, K

Isaac Gallegos (RHP): 1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 K, 4 BB

As per the discussion above, I think it all depends on where the Braves believe they are in terms of the contention window. They are still potentially the top offense in the NL (perhaps all of baseball) if everyone is healthy. Some questions about the pitching. That makes me believe they won't trade Murphy, leaving Baldwin in AAA to work on his defense. Analytics are valuable and can be extremely valuable at the margins. I just think the Braves obtained Murphy for his defense and they value that heavily.

I saw Baldwin live as the DH when Gwinnett played here in St. Paul and he was about the only Striper that didn't get a hit in a total rout, but his ABs were solid and he smoked a couple of balls that were right at defenders. As zbhargrove pointed out, the Baldwin/Langeliers comp is upside down in that Baldwin looks like a more complete hitter and Langeliers is a defense/power guy. My hope is that they don't trade Baldwin. d'Arnaud can't play forever and they will make a decision on him after 2025. That's probably when Baldwin enters the picture more seriously. He's a very good prospect and I wouldn't be surprised if he's in the pre-season Top 100 prospects for a lot of publications.
 
zbhargrove said:
Given Baldwin’s AAA exit velocities reported… I think Baldwin may be a better prospect than Shea was at this point. Most of Shea’s value was defense. Baldwin is still growing there. I think Baldwin will end up at a different position because I think his bat is going to be too valuable to sit half the time. His patience and exit velocity data is special.
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Shea had great EVs as well as a prospect. I mean he put up 22 homers in AA in 2021 for goodness sakes. I will say that Baldwin seems to be a more advanced hitter overall than Shea was, with better contact skills and on base skills. But the overall point remains. It would seem foolhardy to give up on Murphy for a AAA catcher, especially given TDA will be 36 and has a track record of being more inconsistent than Murphy offensively. No need to rush Baldwin. The Murphy contract isn't exactly an albatross and we will likely need to find a 2nd catcher after 2025 anyways.
 
I think the hope with Langeliers as a prospect was that he could be a low-BA hitter who popped enough home runs to generate real value at the plate while drawing just enough walks to keep the OBP on the right side of embarrassing. Which is mostly what has happened, though the OBP is still pretty embarrassing. And considering how low the standards are for catcher offense, a SLG-heavy .740 OPS is plenty good enough.

There's good reason to hope that Baldwin can be better than that, but Langeliers just posted a 3 WAR season, and I don't think you should ever assume a prospect will put up a season as good as that.
 
Eh..my 2 cents worth is Shea's defense alone made him an exciting prospect. He was expected to hit for power and play defense. To varying degrees he's done much of that and keeps improving. HOWEVER, from the day he was drafted, Baldwins offense was called advanced because of his adjustments and ability to barrel the ball. I thought he would be a doubles kind of hitter but his setup and hand adjustments have unlocked another level of his power.

You have to watch Baldwin defensively to find the rub because offensively, he makes contact, barrels the ball and I remember a stretch where he hit the ball in Othani EV range. Anywho, he's known for his game calling but he CANNOT control the run game. However..that's the biggest knock I've seen with him. A lot factors into that but make no mistake...he's solid. Comparing him and Shea is a waste of time, but I'd say the Braves should be ecstatic about him.

No more freaking trading for an equivalent "upgrade" either. (I miss you Bill C)
 
Carp said:
Shea had great EVs as well as a prospect. I mean he put up 22 homers in AA in 2021 for goodness sakes. I will say that Baldwin seems to be a more advanced hitter overall than Shea was, with better contact skills and on base skills. But the overall point remains. It would seem foolhardy to give up on Murphy for a AAA catcher, especially given TDA will be 36 and has a track record of being more inconsistent than Murphy offensively. No need to rush Baldwin. The Murphy contract isn't exactly an albatross and we will likely need to find a 2nd catcher after 2025 anyways.
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Yeah, I think I was mainly basing my opinion on what appears to be much better bat to ball/contact skills. I don't remember hearing much about Shea's EV's... Obviously he hit a lot of homers, but folks had been drooling over Baldwin's EV numbers which I believe were some of the best in AAA. He's a much more exciting prospect to me ceiling wise.
 
Friday Wrap:

Baldwin (C) 1/4, R, RBI (3), PB
Compton (1B) 1/3, R, RBI, 2B (1), SF

Adam Maier, (RHP), 2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 50P,31S
Landon Harper, (RHP), 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 50P, 34S
 
50PoundHead said:
Friday Wrap:

Baldwin (C) 1/4, R, RBI (3), PB

Compton (1B) 1/3, R, RBI, 2B (1), SF

Adam Maier, (RHP), 2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 50P,31S

Landon Harper, (RHP), 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 50P, 34S
Click to expand...

I don’t know enough about Harper to even guess, but something changed with him after his promotion to MS. He started dominating and then moved in to the rotation.

We’ve had good luck turning closers in to starters, so he’s going to be an interesting one to follow.
 
Drake Baldwin is batting .372 with one home run and a .950 OPS in the AFL. The 23-year-old catcher in the Atlanta Braves organization went deep 16 times and had a 119 wRC+ this year between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett.
 
Baldwin has the #1 average exit velocity of any AAA player with 200+ PAs:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat....tracked=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on#results

He is #3 in average exit velocity on FBs/LDs among AAA players with 100+ batted balls of those types:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat....tracked=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on#results

He has the 2 hardest balls by any Brave in AAA this year, and hit 4 at 110+ in 334 PAs:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...se_speed=on&chk_event_launch_speed=on#results

His K and BB rates suggest he has an approach at the plate we wish guys like Harris and Albies could replicate.

So yeah, I think there's a decent chance this kid turns into a legit MLB hitter, so it doesn't really matter if he allows a few extra SBs. He is the best Braves position prospect since Harris, and it would be a mistake to trade him for anything less than a cost controlled SS or SP.
 
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