You can't be serious.
2025-2026 offseason thread
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
msstate7
Well-known member
Quite.
Last 3 seasons...
IP: 184.0, 166.1, 180.2
fWAR: 5.4, 3.6, 3.4
K9: 8.95, 10.98, 10.01
Bb9: 2.69, 2.11, 1.89
Era: 2.79, 3.84, 4.28
xERA: 3.65, 3.66, 3.88
FIP: 2.83, 3.12, 3.40
XFIP: 3.64, 2.84, 3.07
Babip (.288 career): .295, .299, .329
Short term commitment that stays healthy and is a very consistent innings eater. The last 3 seasons, he's 11th in IP and 4th in fWAR.
I would get him if possible, and I'd try to extend sale for 3 more seasons. Richie/diddier/murphy//caminiti should be here soon.
Last edited:
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I like the thought of grey. But he is a really expensive inning eater. I would hate to lose 1/3 of the budget left to spend when there is still several pen spots needed/SS/quality OF/and another IF.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Murphy is negative trade value now. He would hurt any deals this offseason.
msstate7
Well-known member
.
According to sportrac, he's owed 35M next season with a club option for 5 in 2027. Couldn't you look at that as a 2/40 deal? If you're trading for him, you have to assume he will be good next season so the option is a no-brainer
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
team option is 30 million with a 5 buy out. so you have to look at him as costing 40 million for one year or 65 million for 2 years.
msstate7
Well-known member
I read that wrong for sure then. Don't like it as much haha
Still, I'm good with one year of gray at 35. Other than SS, AA won't do anything position wise that costs money. Gray fixes the rotation, so you just have pen left.
Last edited:
What's the issue?
You could say Gray has negative trade value as well. And Winn is coming off knee surgery.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
you could.. I am just saying that adding Murphy to any deal won't make it better. Now adding Murphy to a deal to make the money balance is a thought for sure. But doing so would require AA to find a decent backup catcher.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Gray’s trade value is more negative than Murphy’s at this point.
msstate7
Well-known member
I love a good reason to dream on a player, so finding out Murphy had a hip problem this season makes me wanna hold him.
Disregarding the fact that there is a large divide the last 2 seasons in bWAR (which values actual production) and fWAR (which values imaginary production), there are multiple reasons why this is a bad idea.
1. He's paid 35 million for next year. 40 million if you count the buyout, which you should because no one is paying him 30 million in 2027
2. He's in clear decline and is going to be 36.
There are better options available for the money.
I guess if Stl is willing to eat 20 million or more, and we can't find any better options, it wouldn't be the worst thing. But there are plenty of good options that won't cost 40 million and I doubt Stl will be terribly interested in eating 20 million.
Last edited:
I wouldn't say negative value. But with the surgery, there is no way a team is giving up a valuable player for him right now.
I think he would get claimed if we put him on waivers though, which means there is some positive value.
I can think of 40 million issues.
msstate7
Well-known member
I think judging for next season should be looked at how well he pitched more than the results he got this season.
XERA: career- 3.80, 2025 - 3.88
FIP: career - 3.52, 2025 - 3.40
XFIP: career - 3.54, 2025 - 3.07
Babip: career - .288, 2025 - .329
EV: career - 88.5, 2025 - 88.9
Seems the bad results on era were the result of babip more than decline
Or the better explanation is that his stuff is declining.
Lower velocity, lower spin rates, higher EVs, higher hard hit% (career high actually), higher barrel%
I could go on, but you get the point. Balls are finding green grass (or the bleachers) at higher rates. He is a solid pitcher and he's more than capable of filling the Charlie Morton role we missed this year. But unless Stl is willing to eat a lot of money, he is not a good option.
Not my money so I don't care. 1 year deals, even in an overpay, rarely hurt teams much.
Of all the Braves options for SP, the one most likely to start the season as a healthy and above average pitcher is Sale. Think about what that statement means. The guy who just broke a rib during a slow motion dive on grass and is a sneeze away from a back injury is the MOST LIKELY SP to be healthy at the start of the year and be above average.
Strider is likely cooked as anything more than a backend guy.
Schwelly is coming back from a broken elbow...literally broken.
Holmes is almost certainly just delaying TJS.
AJSS is recovering from TJS.
Lopez may be cooked, and even if he isn't should probably be in the BP.
Waldrep looked good, but is a prime candidate for a sophomore slump.
Everyone else is so terrible folks are arguing if they are a #5 or a AAAA guy.
Even if the Braves do get Gray, the rotation is in no way "fixed". AA probably needs 2 legit MLB SPs, and even that may not be enough to contend for a title.
Strider is likely cooked as anything more than a backend guy.
Schwelly is coming back from a broken elbow...literally broken.
Holmes is almost certainly just delaying TJS.
AJSS is recovering from TJS.
Lopez may be cooked, and even if he isn't should probably be in the BP.
Waldrep looked good, but is a prime candidate for a sophomore slump.
Everyone else is so terrible folks are arguing if they are a #5 or a AAAA guy.
Even if the Braves do get Gray, the rotation is in no way "fixed". AA probably needs 2 legit MLB SPs, and even that may not be enough to contend for a title.