2025-2026 offseason thread

Gamble, for sure. Coulda just used the money on a known commodity
Not many known Commodity's you'd get for Kelenic's salary, we barely traded any assets to get him. The only upside guy we included was COle Phillips who hasn't pitched a professional inning (was drafted in 2022) because he's been on the 60 Day IL since October 2022.

Looking at Spotrac, the cheapest OFs that were signed 2023/4 offseason. Aaron Hicks 740K, Tony Kemp 1M, and Jurrickson Profar at 1M. Obviously Profar awas great but that was not seen by anyone. And all those were 1 year deals. The longer term guys like Gurriel and Soler signed for 3 years 40+ million.
 
Not many known Commodity's you'd get for Kelenic's salary, we barely traded any assets to get him. The only upside guy we included was COle Phillips who hasn't pitched a professional inning (was drafted in 2022) because he's been on the 60 Day IL since October 2022.

Looking at Spotrac, the cheapest OFs that were signed 2023/4 offseason. Aaron Hicks 740K, Tony Kemp 1M, and Jurrickson Profar at 1M. Obviously Profar awas great but that was not seen by anyone. And all those were 1 year deals. The longer term guys like Gurriel and Soler signed for 3 years 40+ million.
Fletcher's money has to accounted for too
 
If the Braves took that route and signed a known commodity with that cash for 1 year we'd be in the same exact spot we are right now. The idea was to trade a surplus of cash for 1 season for a potential LF regular who wouldn't cost much the remaining 3-4 years.
So they got nothing then or now. When the team has an obvious hole for the rest of this window, I prefer to play it safe. Now if you target a Kelenic that we aren't leaning on for production, swing away
 
Of the 3 gambles AA took that off season the biggest risk was Sale never staying healthy. In fact, he's been injured the time the Braves needed him most last October, and broke a rib landing on perfectly manicured grass.

Rolling the dice on Kelenic turning into the LF version of Riley was reasonable. The thing they need to learn from is WHY they thought he could improve, and tweak whatever model suggested he could.
 
Of the 3 gambles AA took that off season the biggest risk was Sale never staying healthy. In fact, he's been injured the time the Braves needed him most last October, and broke a rib landing on perfectly manicured grass.

Rolling the dice on Kelenic turning into the LF version of Riley was reasonable. The thing they need to learn from is WHY they thought he could improve, and tweak whatever model suggested he could.
I'm not a genius, but I guess they looked at his power numbers in Seattle and thought he would be better moving to Atlanta. But really you're right, whatever model they ran that said Kelenic would be a diamond in the rough, should be adjusted.
 
Looking back, I have to admit that the braves sorta had what I wanted. Adam Duvall was coming off a 1.7 fWAR season. Him completely collapsing in 2024 made the Kelenic deal much worse. Oh, and don't enter a season with Forrest wall as your 5th OF
 
If the Braves took that route and signed a known commodity with that cash for 1 year we'd be in the same exact spot we are right now. The idea was to trade a surplus of cash for 1 season for a potential LF regular who wouldn't cost much the remaining 3-4 years.
But money is money and you can only spend a dollar once. There's all this barking about resetting the luxury tax and the like (which is not directly related to the Kelenic adventure), but the bottom line is unless you don't have payroll concerns ala the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc., you have to have stay flexible so that your big move at the deadline isn't a walk down memory lane with Jorge Soler. Given the strength throughout the Braves' line-up there wasn't a real need to soak up that much money for LF.

Got a chuckle out of Zito's Forrest Wall reference.
 
I'm not a genius, but I guess they looked at his power numbers in Seattle and thought he would be better moving to Atlanta. But really you're right, whatever model they ran that said Kelenic would be a diamond in the rough, should be adjusted.
The Braves have historically placed a lot more predictive value than most other teams on glimpses of greatness guys show, and project them to be that great more frequently in the future. That tactic seems to be their secret sauce in finding guys like Strider and Schwelly and Harris and Baldwin seemingly every year, but may not be the best tactic when you aren't taking 20 shots on MLB players like they are with draftees.
 
So they got nothing then or now. When the team has an obvious hole for the rest of this window, I prefer to play it safe. Now if you target a Kelenic that we aren't leaning on for production, swing away

The idea was to fill that hole for the rest of the window. If we went with your idea the team would have still needed to fill that hole for 2025...which they did with Profar.
 
But money is money and you can only spend a dollar once. There's all this barking about resetting the luxury tax and the like (which is not directly related to the Kelenic adventure), but the bottom line is unless you don't have payroll concerns ala the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc., you have to have stay flexible so that your big move at the deadline isn't a walk down memory lane with Jorge Soler. Given the strength throughout the Braves' line-up there wasn't a real need to soak up that much money for LF.

Got a chuckle out of Zito's Forrest Wall reference.

Again, the idea was to be flexible in 2025 and beyond. Having a productive Kelenic making pennies for 4 years (2025-2028) would have provided a ton of flexibility. It was a gamble that didn't work.
 
So they got nothing then or now. When the team has an obvious hole for the rest of this window, I prefer to play it safe. Now if you target a Kelenic that we aren't leaning on for production, swing away
They weren’t supposed to be leaning on him.
 
That's moves that non-contenders should make. I think teams like the Braves should invest in safe moves for the most part
It basically was a safe move, imo.

They just traded money for a flyer on a potential low cost, controllable regular in future years.

Didn't work but there was very little cost to it.
 
What part of they had a loaded lineup and he was expected to be the 7th or 8th best hitter do you not understand?
Hind sight and all, but we shoulda saw this one coming anyway...

Arcia in the 2nd half of 2023: .560 ops, 40 wrc+. He hadn't hit before in his career.

Absolutely positively no depth among position guys, so any injury was gonna be a killer
 
I'm admitting the benefit of hindsight, but damn you can tell we back to offseason where AA is never to be questioned around these parts. I didn't say the move was stupid at the time, but there were absolutely some here who questioned it hard. It was a horrendous move, and those posters were right.
 
Hind sight and all, but we shoulda saw this one coming anyway...

Arcia in the 2nd half of 2023: .560 ops, 40 wrc+. He hadn't hit before in his career.

Absolutely positively no depth among position guys, so any injury was gonna be a killer

Yes we should have all seen 3 all-stars having some kind of season ending injury
 
Yes we should have all seen 3 all-stars having some kind of season ending injury
Who was gonna fill in for even one?

ETA... and what did we learn from that this season? Nothing bc there was no depth again. Riley is becoming David wright before our eyes, so we better have a good plan for him being awol again next year. Ozzie will be coming off injury again, so need a backup plan there. Harris can't hit anymore, so that's concerning.
 
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